Vladimir Putin’s brief period of tactical advantage seems to have ended abruptly.
Just a week prior, it appeared the Russian president had skillfully outmaneuvered his rivals. A strategic phone call to then-President Trump had reportedly halted any further American military aid to Ukraine.
However, on Thursday, Russians woke up to news of fresh American sanctions targeting their vital oil sector. This represents the most direct punitive action taken by Mr. Trump against Russia during his second term, following previous threats that never materialized.
These sanctions, aimed squarely at the core of the Russian economy, deliver a significant blow to Mr. Putin’s ongoing efforts to pressure Mr. Trump into forcing Ukraine to concede to Russia’s key demands, including territorial surrender. The image shows a Rosneft building in Moscow, highlighting the targets of these new sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, two major Russian oil companies.
Yet, experts familiar with Mr. Putin’s mindset suggest these new measures are unlikely to alter Russia’s war objectives. Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the political analysis firm R.Politik, noted that Russian companies have long prepared for increased sanctions. She emphasized that Mr. Putin remains committed to his goals, even at immense cost, and that Mr. Trump’s policy could still shift again.
“They’ll simply shrug and think, ‘He’ll come around in three months,’” Ms. Stanovaya commented on Russia’s anticipated reaction. “For Putin, this war is an existential struggle, and he is prepared to endure significant hardship.”
Oil prices surged on Thursday, indicating the potential impact of these sanctions, which will ultimately depend on their enforcement and the response from global energy buyers. The new directives target Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two largest oil firms, and any entities globally conducting business with them.
Oil and gas sales contribute roughly a quarter of Russia’s national budget. These sanctions hit at a time when the Russian oil industry is already grappling with pressure from Ukraine’s increasingly advanced long-range missile attacks. Nevertheless, some Russian analysts anticipate a limited effect from the new penalties. This image depicts soldiers from the 148th Artillery Brigade in the Zaporizhzhia region of eastern Ukraine. Experts believe these new sanctions are unlikely to change Russia’s war goals.
They pointed out Russia’s proven ability to circumvent restrictions, utilizing a vast fleet of older vessels uninsured by Western firms and processing transactions through intermediary companies in other nations. Given that Russia accounts for approximately nine percent of global oil sales, any reduction in its exports would tighten supply and drive prices higher, thus creating further incentives for sanction evasion.
“Lukoil will certainly face challenges, but these will be Lukoil’s problems, not Russia’s overall economic burden,” explained Sergey Vakulenko, an energy expert from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
This latest twist in the unpredictable U.S. approach to Mr. Putin follows what initially seemed like a diplomatic win for Russia. Last week, Mr. Putin seemingly convinced Mr. Trump that a peace agreement in Ukraine was achievable. After their phone call on Thursday, Mr. Trump announced an upcoming meeting in Budapest and confirmed he would not supply Ukraine with the advanced Tomahawk cruise missiles it requested.
However, Russia clarified this week that an immediate ceasefire was not on the table. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Russia’s priority remained addressing the conflict’s “root causes” before halting hostilities—a clear reference to Russia’s demands for more Ukrainian territory and a decisive say in Ukraine’s future alignment.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday urged Russia to agree to “an immediate cease-fire” as he unveiled the new sanctions. Despite Mr. Trump’s demands for a halt to fighting, Mr. Putin appears unwilling to stop the war along current front lines, especially as Russian forces continue their costly, albeit slow, advances on the battlefield.
Nonetheless, Ukraine welcomed the sanctions on Thursday, following yet another wave of Russian drone and missile attacks that killed at least one person and injured 51.
“We were expecting these—God willing, I hope they prove effective,” President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters in Brussels, where he was attending a European Union leaders’ summit.
“The new U.S. sanctions targeting Russia’s oil giants send a clear message: prolonging the war and instigating terror comes at a price,” Mr. Zelensky stated on social media, calling it a “fair and absolutely deserved step.”
Maria Varenikova contributed to this report.