Vladimir V. Putin’s recent tactical victory quickly faded. Just a week ago, it seemed the Russian president had once again outmaneuvered his adversaries with a skillfully timed call to President Trump, effectively halting any expansion of American military aid to Ukraine.
However, the mood shifted on Thursday when Russians woke to the news of fresh American sanctions targeting their oil industry. This marks the most direct punitive action taken by Mr. Trump against Russia in his second term, following a period where several earlier threats went unfulfilled.
These sanctions, directly aimed at the heart of the Russian economy, represent one of the year’s most significant challenges to Mr. Putin’s strategy. His goal has been to persuade Mr. Trump to pressure Ukraine into conceding to Russia’s key demands, including the surrender of territories still under Ukrainian control.
Yet, experts familiar with Mr. Putin’s approach suggest these new measures are unlikely to fundamentally alter his war objectives. Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the political analysis firm R.Politik, notes that Russian companies have long been braced for potential escalations in sanctions. She emphasizes that Mr. Putin is prepared to endure substantial losses to achieve his goals, and there’s always the possibility Mr. Trump could change his stance again.
“They’ll simply shrug and think, ‘He’ll come around in three months,’” Ms. Stanovaya remarked on Russia’s likely reaction to Mr. Trump’s sanctions. “For Putin, this war is an existential struggle, and he is ready to bear a great deal.”
Oil prices surged on Wednesday, highlighting the potential impact of the sanctions, though their true effectiveness will depend on enforcement and how energy buyers respond. The new penalties specifically target Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, and any entities globally conducting business with them.
Oil and gas sales contribute approximately a quarter of Russia’s national budget. These sanctions arrive as the Russian oil sector already faces pressure from Ukraine’s increasingly sophisticated long-range strikes. However, some Russian analysts anticipate a minimal impact from the new restrictions.
They point out Russia’s growing expertise in circumventing restrictions by utilizing a vast fleet of older vessels uninsured by Western firms and by channeling transactions through intermediary companies in third countries. Moreover, given that Russia accounts for roughly nine percent of global oil sales, any reduction in its exports would tighten supply and drive up prices, thereby creating further incentives for sanction evasion.
“Lukoil will certainly face significant challenges, but these will primarily be Lukoil’s problems, not Russia’s as a whole,” stated Sergey Vakulenko, an energy expert from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
This latest twist in the unpredictable U.S. policy toward Mr. Putin comes after the Russian president seemingly convinced Mr. Trump last week that a peace agreement with Ukraine might be within reach. Following their call, Mr. Trump announced plans for a quick meeting in Budapest and stated he was not prepared to supply Ukraine with the powerful Tomahawk cruise missiles it requested.
However, Russia this week made it clear that an immediate ceasefire was not on the table. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov indicated that Moscow remains committed to addressing the war’s “root causes” before ending hostilities—a direct reference to Russia’s demands for more Ukrainian territory and a decisive say in Ukraine’s future.
On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for “an immediate ceasefire” from Russia as he unveiled the new sanctions. Yet, Mr. Putin appears unwilling to halt the war at the current front lines, as Mr. Trump had demanded, particularly with Russian forces slowly but expensively gaining ground on the battlefield.
Nevertheless, Ukraine welcomed the sanctions on Thursday, even after another wave of Russian drone and missile attacks claimed at least one life and injured 51 others.
“We had been awaiting them—and God willing, I hope they prove effective,” President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters in Brussels, where he was attending a European Union leaders’ summit.
“These new U.S. sanctions against Russia’s oil giants send a clear message: prolonging the war and perpetrating terror comes at a cost,” Mr. Zelensky posted on social media. He added, “This is a just and absolutely deserved measure.”
Maria Varenikova contributed reporting.