President Vladimir Putin’s brief moment of tactical success proved fleeting. Just a week prior, it seemed he had once again outmaneuvered his opponents, with a strategically timed call to President Trump effectively halting any further expansion of American support for Ukraine.
However, on Thursday, Russians woke up to news of fresh American sanctions targeting their oil industry. This marks the most direct punitive action Mr. Trump has taken against Russia in his second term, following his earlier reluctance to implement similar threats.
These new sanctions, striking at the core of the Russian economy, represent one of the most significant blows this year to Mr. Putin’s ongoing attempts to persuade Mr. Trump into pressuring Ukraine to concede to Russia’s primary demands, including the surrender of still-held Ukrainian territories.
Yet, analysts specializing in Russian affairs believe these new measures are unlikely to shift Mr. Putin’s fundamental war aims. Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the political analysis firm R.Politik, noted that Russian companies have long been anticipating stricter sanctions. She emphasized that Mr. Putin remains prepared to endure substantial losses to achieve his objectives, and that Mr. Trump might well reverse his stance again.
“They’ll simply shrug their shoulders and think, ‘He’ll reconsider in three months,’” Ms. Stanovaya remarked on Russia’s probable reaction to Mr. Trump’s sanctions. “For Putin, this conflict remains an existential struggle, and he is ready to endure a great deal.”
Oil prices surged on Thursday, indicating the potential impact of these sanctions. Their ultimate effectiveness will likely depend on the rigor of enforcement and the response of energy buyers worldwide. The new regulations specifically target Russia’s two largest oil firms, Rosneft and Lukoil, along with any entities globally conducting business with them.
Oil and gas revenues account for roughly a quarter of Russia’s national budget. These sanctions arrive as the Russian oil industry already contends with pressure from increasingly sophisticated long-range strikes by Ukraine. Nevertheless, some Russian analysts predict that the new penalties will have a limited overall effect.
They pointed out Russia’s established expertise in circumventing restrictions by utilizing a vast fleet of older vessels, uninsured by Western companies, and by channeling transactions through intermediary companies in various third countries. Furthermore, given that Russia accounts for approximately nine percent of global oil sales, any restrictions on its exports would inevitably reduce supply and drive up prices, thereby creating further incentives for sanction evasion.
The outgoing Biden administration had implemented similar sanctions in January against two other major Russian oil companies, Surgutneftegaz and Gazpromneft. These previous sanctions had minimal impact, largely due to the lax enforcement under the Trump administration, according to Sergey Vakulenko, an energy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“Lukoil will certainly face significant challenges, but these will be Lukoil’s challenges, not Russia’s as a whole,” Mr. Vakulenko stated, referring to one of the Russian oil giants now targeted.
However, the broader Russian economy does indeed face difficulties, though analysts believe these are insufficient to compel Mr. Putin to alter his course. Prior to this week’s actions, Russia’s oil and gas revenues were already forecast to drop to around $100 billion this year from nearly $135 billion in 2024, primarily due to lower oil prices. Moreover, the Russian central bank’s efforts to curb inflation by raising interest rates have curtailed a wartime economic boom, slowing the economy’s growth rate to approximately 1 percent this year, a stark contrast to the over 4 percent growth seen in 2023 and 2024.
This latest shift in the unpredictable U.S. approach to Mr. Putin followed the Russian president’s apparent success last week in convincing Mr. Trump that a peace agreement with Ukraine might be achievable. After his call with Mr. Putin last Thursday, Mr. Trump announced plans for an imminent meeting in Budapest and declared he was not prepared to supply Ukraine with the powerful Tomahawk cruise missiles it requested.
However, Russia this week made it clear that a swift cease-fire was not on the horizon. Sergey V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, affirmed that Russia remains committed to addressing the war’s “root causes” before ending hostilities—a reference to Russia’s demands for more Ukrainian territory and a decisive say in Ukraine’s future.
Subsequently, Mr. Trump canceled the planned Budapest meeting and expressed his frustration on Wednesday, saying, “Every time I speak with Vladimir, I have good conversations, and then they don’t go anywhere.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent then urged Russia to agree to “an immediate cease-fire” as he announced the new sanctions.
Yet, Mr. Putin appears unwilling to halt the war at the current front lines, despite Mr. Trump’s demands, as Russian forces continue their slow and costly advance on the battlefield.
The Russian Foreign Ministry asserted on Thursday that the country had developed “immunity” to Western sanctions. It warned that the American president risks repeating the mistakes of the Biden administration in attempting to pressure Russia.
“If the current U.S. administration starts emulating its predecessors,” stated foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria V. Zakharova, “the outcome will be identical—disastrous domestically and damaging to global economic stability.”
Ukraine, meanwhile, welcomed the sanctions on Thursday, following another wave of Russian drone and missile attacks that killed at least one person and injured 51 others. For Ukrainians, these new American measures signaled that Mr. Trump was finally recognizing the necessity of compelling Russia to end its war.
“We were hoping for them—God bless, I hope they will work,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said of the sanctions during an exchange with journalists in Brussels, where he was attending a European Union leaders’ summit.
“The new U.S. sanctions against Russia’s oil giants are a clear message that prolonging the war and spreading terror incurs a cost,” Mr. Zelensky posted on social media. “This is a just and entirely deserved action,” he added.
The U.S. sanctions were announced just before the European Union’s own decision on Thursday to approve a new round of sanctions. These new EU measures prohibit imports of Russian liquefied natural gas, target Russian banks and cryptocurrency exchanges, and impose travel restrictions on Russian diplomats.
However, Ukraine maintains that tougher sanctions alone are insufficient to force Mr. Putin into genuine negotiations. The country also emphasizes the need for more powerful weaponry, such as the Tomahawk missiles it seeks to acquire from the United States.
“Russia’s inclination for diplomacy has somewhat diminished,” Mr. Zelensky noted on Wednesday, “and our long-range capabilities can bring Russia to the negotiating table in a way that can truly conclude this war.”