Donald Trump’s recent comments, describing Russia as a “paper tiger” engaged in an “aimless war” in Ukraine, might have been expected to provoke a strong reaction from the Kremlin. The term itself is a direct insult, and Moscow would likely recall President Obama’s previous description of Russia as a “regional power,” which was met with significant displeasure. Furthermore, Trump’s suggestion that Ukraine could reclaim all its seized territories would have certainly raised eyebrows in Moscow, as would his affirmative response to the idea of NATO downing Russian aircraft entering their airspace.
However, Russia’s initial reaction has been remarkably measured. Dmitry Peskov, President Putin’s spokesperson, subtly dismissed the “paper tiger” insult by humorously comparing Russia to a bear, stating, “Russia is in no way a tiger… It’s more associated with a bear. And there is no such thing as a paper bear.” When questioned about Ukraine reclaiming territory, Peskov conveyed a more serious but still diplomatic stance, telling reporters, “The assertion that Ukraine can win back something by fighting is mistaken.”
During a Kremlin conference call, when asked about Trump’s remarks, Peskov highlighted Russia’s appreciation for Trump’s stated commitment to pursuing a peace settlement. He noted, “Russia, in general, and President Putin in particular value highly President Trump’s political will to continue working towards a peace settlement.” This diplomatic response suggests a strategic approach from Moscow, perhaps believing that Trump’s views are not yet fixed and can be influenced. Peskov indicated that Russia would use the upcoming meeting between Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his US counterpart in New York to convey their position.
There’s a recurring pattern where unexpected criticism from Trump towards Russia or Putin is met with a calm and restrained response from the Kremlin. One possible explanation, as suggested by the newspaper Izvestiya, is that Trump is easily swayed by his last conversation, which in this instance was with Ukrainian President Zelensky. This implies that Moscow believes there’s an opportunity to shift Trump’s perspective.
Another factor contributing to Russia’s calm demeanor might be the absence of direct threats or ultimatums in Trump’s comments. While critical, they didn’t include further sanctions, a peace ultimatum, or a deadline with consequences. Trump’s ambiguous answer about trusting Putin (“I’ll let you know in about a month from now”) is unlikely to cause significant concern in Moscow, given the volatile nature of politics and war.
Regarding the threat of shooting down Russian aircraft, Peskov dismissed such claims as “groundless and without proof,” while also denying Trump’s portrayal of a struggling Russian economy. While Russia’s economy is indeed facing challenges due to sanctions and war spending, with growing deficits and falling revenues, it is not on the verge of collapse. Recent drone attacks on oil refineries have caused domestic fuel supply issues, leading to reports of petrol shortages in some regions, but these economic pressures do not appear to be influencing the Kremlin’s battlefield decisions. For now, President Putin seems committed to continuing the war in Ukraine, regardless of what Donald Trump says.