Portugal recently held its presidential election, resulting in a decisive victory for António José Seguro, a former leader of the Socialist Party who garnered broad support from the establishment. He triumphed over his nationalist rival, André Ventura. Official reports indicated that Seguro secured over 65 percent of the vote, compared to Ventura’s 34 percent, with more than 90 percent of districts counted.
“The Portuguese people are the best people in the world,” Seguro declared to reporters outside his home in Caldas da Rainha on Sunday evening. He praised their “enormous civic responsibility” and “attachment to the values of democracy.”
This compelling win was celebrated by the establishment both within Portugal and internationally, seen as a crucial pushback against the escalating far-right movement across Europe. However, Ventura’s strong showing in the runoff, likely exceeding 33 percent of the vote, was a stark reminder of the far right’s growing influence. His party even outpolled the governing conservatives in the last parliamentary election.
This outcome suggests that Portugal, once regarded as one of Europe’s last bastions against hard-line nationalism, is no longer immune to the populist surge. Ventura, addressing reporters on Sunday night, vowed to continue advocating for the “change” he believes Portugal needs.
Analysts attributed Seguro’s victory partly to the backing he received from mainstream conservatives, who rallied behind him to counter Ventura and his rapidly expanding Chega party (meaning “enough” in Portuguese). Ventura had surprised many by winning nearly a quarter of the votes in the initial crowded round in January, securing his place in the runoff against Seguro, who led that round with almost a third of the votes.
“Portugal’s historical role as an exception to Europe’s far-right rise is clearly over,” stated João Cancela, a political science professor at NOVA University in Lisbon. He explained that despite Ventura’s significant loss, his strong performance highlighted Chega’s widespread appeal across a nation that has recently flourished as a tourist hub, benefiting from foreign investment, a growing expatriate community, and a robust economy.
Yet, these advantages have brought new challenges and public discontent, such as concerns over housing affordability and the rising cost of living. These issues have fueled Ventura’s ascent. “This election confirms a structural shift rather than a temporary blip,” Professor Cancela added.
Indeed, despite Seguro’s commanding lead, Portugal is experiencing the same nationalist currents that are sweeping through much of Europe. Italy is led by Giorgia Meloni, whose political roots are in post-fascist parties. France’s National Rally, once marginalized, is now a leading contender in upcoming presidential elections. In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany party is polling closely with the center-right. Even in Britain, Nigel Farage’s Reform U.K. party has emerged as a serious force.
Just before the election, severe storms and floods caused disruptions, postponing voting in a few regions. However, these delays were not extensive enough to significantly alter the overall results.
As the Portuguese cast their ballots on Sunday, Ventura argued that the poor weather conditions should have led to a nationwide postponement of the election. “Perhaps there are many areas and parts of the country that feel disrespected and like second-class Portuguese citizens,” Ventura commented to journalists, adding, “I don’t think that is right.” He did not respond to further requests for comment that evening.
The presidency in Portugal is traditionally a symbolic role, though the office does retain powers such as vetoing legislation and acting decisively during political crises, including dissolving Parliament. In the campaign to succeed outgoing President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, Seguro pledged not to overstep his bounds and become a “shadow prime minister.” Ventura, however, advocated for a more “interventionist presidency,” promising a proactive approach.
Across Europe, nationalists and their adversaries keenly observed Sunday’s election as another indicator of populism’s strength. Chega represents the first hard-right party to gain such significant traction in Portugal since the fall of António de Oliveira Salazar’s nationalist dictatorship.
Only six years prior, in 2019, Ventura, a former soccer commentator, became Chega’s inaugural Member of Parliament. Since then, the party has leveraged social media outrage, along with anti-immigrant, anti-Roma, and anti-corruption messages, to establish itself as the country’s primary opposition force.
Chega’s appeal has grown particularly among young Portuguese and those facing financial hardship. Its message has resonated in traditionally left-leaning areas, where working-class voters, frustrated by rising housing costs, job scarcity, and increased immigration, are seeking a candidate who directly addresses their grievances. During the first round of the election, Chega’s campaign posters boldly proclaimed “Isto não é o Bangladesh!” (This is not Bangladesh!), a slogan that for many of its voters has come to symbolize the significant increase in Portugal’s migrant population over the last decade.
Similar to recent elections in France, the Portuguese establishment attempted to create a united front against the far right, bridging ideological divides to attract moderate voters.
Prominent “nonsocialist” figures, including leading center-right conservatives, endorsed Seguro through an open letter. They argued that the election was a critical choice between liberal and illiberal ideologies, positioning Ventura’s candidacy as outside acceptable democratic norms. Former President and Prime Minister Aníbal Cavaco Silva was among the country’s leading conservatives who publicly spoke out against Ventura.
“The country is sending a message that Portugal is a moderate country and that we value democracy,” commented Carlos Moedas, Lisbon’s center-right mayor and a former European Union official, who confirmed voting for Seguro on Sunday.
Mayor Moedas suggested that Seguro’s landslide victory was largely due to the mobilization of moderates, including figures like himself from the center-right, who united behind him to demonstrate a viable strategy against extremism in Europe.
However, Moedas also expressed concern that disaffected voters might continue gravitating towards Chega precisely because the establishment had united against it, effectively allowing Ventura to consolidate the protest vote. He noted that Ventura’s exceeding the conservatives’ recent vote count would likely make him “think even higher of himself.”
“The big question,” Moedas concluded, was how to reach voters driven solely by anger. “It’s a worldwide trend, and I hope we can stop it in Portugal at some point.”
João Banza, a farmer from Alentejo, southern Portugal, who typically votes center-right, indicated before the election that he was leaning towards Ventura. He explained that after experiencing corruption and increasing immigration, the Portuguese “want something new, even knowing that the far right is not the most prepared on all the topics.”
Significantly, Portugal’s center-right Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro, did not publicly endorse any candidate. This decision reflected the growing perception that Chega is now a permanent fixture in Portuguese politics. Analysts speculated that Montenegro aimed to avoid alienating conservative factions within his base and to keep open the possibility of cooperating with Chega to pass legislation in Parliament.
Ventura, who has previously accused the Portuguese establishment of “canceling” him, remarked during a pre-election debate that those with entrenched interests were more motivated to vote against him than for Seguro. This echoes similar sentiments expressed by figures like Vice President JD Vance in Germany last year, who urged Europe to cease blocking populist parties from mainstream politics.
However, this Sunday, Portugal demonstrated it was not yet prepared to dismantle its democratic “firewall.”
Margarida Garcia, a 40-year-old Lisbon lawyer, stated her primary goal was to prevent Chega from gaining power. “I would almost certainly vote for anyone running against Ventura,” she affirmed.