Portugal recently held its presidential elections, with expectations pointing towards a clear win for António José Seguro, the former leader of the Socialist Party, who enjoyed strong backing from the mainstream establishment. His opponent in the runoff was the nationalist candidate, André Ventura.
The very fact that a far-right figure made it to the runoff was a significant concern across Europe. It signaled that Portugal, long viewed as one of the continent’s resilient defenders against hard-line nationalism, is now facing the same populist currents. Official results were anticipated on Sunday evening.
Analysts suggest that Seguro’s substantial lead in the polls was partly due to mainstream conservative forces uniting behind his candidacy to prevent a victory for Ventura and his rapidly growing Chega party, whose name fittingly means “enough” in Portuguese. Ventura had surprisingly secured nearly a quarter of the votes in the initial, crowded first round in January, earning him a spot against Seguro, who led that round with almost a third of the votes.
João Cancela, a political science professor at NOVA University in Lisbon, commented on this shift: “Portugal’s old reputation as an exception to the far-right surge in Europe is clearly over.” He emphasized that even if Ventura lost, his strong performance highlighted Chega’s widespread influence across the country. Portugal has recently become a vibrant tourist destination, experiencing an influx of foreign investment, expatriates, and a flourishing economy.
However, these economic boons have also brought challenges and public discontent, particularly regarding housing affordability and the rising cost of living. These issues have fueled Ventura’s ascent. Professor Cancela views this as “a structural shift rather than a temporary blip,” indicating a lasting change in the political landscape.
Indeed, Portugal is now experiencing the same wave of nationalism that has swept across much of Europe. Italy is currently led by Giorgia Meloni, whose political roots are in post-fascist movements. In France, the National Rally, once on the fringes, is now a leading contender for the upcoming presidential elections. Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany party is neck-and-neck with the center-right in polls, and Nigel Farage’s Reform U.K. party has emerged as a serious force in Britain.
Leading up to the vote, severe storms and floods caused minor disruptions, delaying elections in a few areas, though these were not expected to alter the overall outcome. The Portuguese presidency is largely a ceremonial role, but it carries the power to veto laws and special authority during national crises, such as dissolving parliament. While campaigning to succeed the outgoing president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, Seguro pledged not to act as a “shadow prime minister.” Ventura, however, advocated for a more assertive, “interventionist presidency.”
Across Europe, both nationalists and their opposition closely watched Sunday’s election as another indicator of populism’s growing influence. Chega represents the first major surge of a hard-right party in Portugal since the end of António de Oliveira Salazar’s nationalist dictatorship.
Remarkably, just six years ago, in 2019, André Ventura, a former soccer commentator, became Chega’s sole member of parliament. Since then, the party has leveraged social media platforms to amplify its anti-immigrant, anti-Roma, and anti-corruption messages, transforming into the nation’s primary opposition force.
Chega’s appeal has resonated particularly with young Portuguese voters and those facing financial hardship. Its platform has successfully penetrated traditionally left-wing strongholds, attracting working-class voters disillusioned by escalating housing costs, job scarcity, and increased immigration, all seeking a candidate who directly addresses their concerns.
During the first round, Chega’s campaign posters boldly declared, “Isto não é o Bangladesh!” (This is not Bangladesh!). For many of the party’s supporters, “Bangladeshis” has become a symbolic reference for the significant increase in Portugal’s migrant population over the past decade.
Much like the recent elections in France, the Portuguese establishment sought to create a united front against the far right. They aimed to draw moderate voters by bridging ideological divides.
Prominent “non-socialist” figures, including leading center-right conservatives, publicly endorsed Seguro through an open letter. They framed the election as a crucial choice between liberal and illiberal governance, asserting that Ventura’s candidacy was beyond acceptable democratic norms. Esteemed conservative voices, such as former president and prime minister Aníbal Cavaco Silva, also spoke out against Ventura.
Carlos Moedas, the center-right mayor of Lisbon and a former European Union official, revealed he voted for Seguro, stating, “The country is sending a message that Portugal is a moderate country and that we value democracy.”
Moedas believed a decisive victory for Seguro would largely be thanks to the rallying support of moderates, including center-right leaders like himself, showcasing a strategy for Europe to counter extremism.
However, Moedas also expressed concern that disaffected voters might continue to gravitate towards Chega, precisely because a united establishment had formed against the party. This dynamic could allow Ventura to consolidate the protest vote.
He noted that the challenge of engaging voters driven by anger was “the big question,” adding, “It’s a worldwide trend and I hope we can stop it in Portugal at some point.”
Interestingly, Portugal’s center-right Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro, chose not to publicly endorse either candidate. This decision reflects the growing perception of Chega as a lasting presence in Portuguese politics. Analysts suggested Montenegro aimed to avoid alienating conservative elements within his own base and to maintain a working relationship with Chega, whose support might be crucial for legislative initiatives.
Ventura himself criticized what he called being “canceled” by the Portuguese establishment. In a pre-election debate, he argued that entrenched interests were more motivated to vote *against* him than *for* Seguro. This sentiment echoed the criticisms made by figures like Vice President JD Vance last year in Germany, who urged Europe to cease obstructing populist, once-taboo parties from gaining mainstream acceptance.