Abu Dhabi recently hosted a significant oil summit where leading officials expressed strong confidence that the growing power requirements of artificial intelligence and expanding global aviation would drive up energy prices. This optimistic forecast emerged just hours after OPEC+, the alliance of oil-producing nations, decided to halt planned production increases for the first quarter of 2026.
The discussions at the annual Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC) brought to light the inherent contradictions within the energy market, particularly for the United Arab Emirates. As a major oil producer, the UAE also notably hosted the United Nations COP28 climate talks in 2023. Sultan al-Jaber, who chaired COP28 and heads the state-run Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., emphasized that the energy market requires ‘reinforcement, not replacement.’ U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum echoed these sentiments, criticizing what he termed ‘climate extremism’ policies and stating, ‘The demand for power is going to go up and up and up… There is no energy transition. There is only energy addition.’
OPEC+ Pauses Production Increases
On Sunday, November 2, 2025, OPEC+ convened and agreed to an additional production increase of 137,000 barrels of oil starting in December. However, the group also announced that adjustments previously scheduled for January, February, and March of next year would be paused due to ‘seasonality.’ OPEC+ includes not only the cartel’s core members but also other oil-producing nations led by Russia.
On Monday, November 3, 2025, benchmark Brent crude traded around $65 a barrel. This marked a decrease from its post-COVID peak of approximately $115 a barrel following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and a recent dip to $60 a barrel amid concerns of market overproduction. Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, described OPEC+’s decision as a ‘calculated move.’ He explained, ‘Sanctions on Russian producers have injected a new layer of uncertainty into supply forecasts, and the group knows that overproducing now could backfire later. By pausing, OPEC+ is protecting prices, projecting unity and buying time to see how sanctions play out on Russian barrels.’
However, Suhail al-Mazerouei, the UAE’s energy and infrastructure minister, dismissed any long-term concerns about an oil glut. ‘I’m not going to talk about an oversupply scenario,’ he asserted. ‘I can’t see that. I can’t justify that. And I think all of what we are seeing is more demand.’
U.S. Stance: Production & Geopolitics
Former Republican governor of North Dakota, Doug Burgum, who previously chaired U.S. President Donald Trump’s National Energy Dominance Council, attended the Abu Dhabi summit. He praised the energy policy partnership between the U.S. and Gulf Arab states, stating, ‘We share a belief about energy policy.’
Burgum highlighted two primary threats guiding U.S. energy policy: preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and ensuring the free world does not fall behind in the ‘AI arms race,’ which he noted requires ‘chips, … software models and … more electricity.’ As of Monday, November 3, 2025, the average U.S. gasoline price was $3.03 per gallon, a critical economic and political figure. Former President Trump had previously criticized OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia over oil prices during his first term.
Meanwhile, the U.S. and UK have imposed new oil sanctions on Russia due to the war in Ukraine, targeting entities like Rosneft and Lukoil. Despite this, the UAE has maintained close ties with Russia, serving as an intermediary for prisoner exchanges between Kyiv and Moscow. Burgum pointedly remarked on stage, with the Lukoil logo displayed nearby, that ‘The Russian and Ukraine war is being funded by energy sales.’
Climate Concerns Take a Backseat
The oil conference followed the UAE’s hosting of COP28, where nearly 200 nations made a historic pledge to transition away from fossil fuels to combat global warming. Scientists advocate for nearly halving global emissions in the coming years to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Despite its climate commitments, the UAE plans to increase its oil production capacity to 5 million barrels per day in the coming years while also developing more clean energy initiatives domestically.
Qatari Energy Minister Saad Sherida al-Kaabi reiterated a warning to the European Union, threatening to halt liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments if its Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, which pushes companies towards net-zero emissions, is enforced. Such a move would be critical given the existing ban on Russian LNG in Europe. ‘I think… a small part of this conference, unfortunately, changes with politics depending on when it was President Biden and President Trump and so on,’ al-Kaabi remarked. ‘I think that they’re not looking at facts and realities and I think we shouldn’t be following politics when we look at the lives of people for the future and how much energy we need in the future.’