A recent, rapid analysis has delivered a stark warning: Hurricane Melissa, which devastated Jamaica as one of the most potent storms ever documented, was made four times more likely due to human-caused climate change.
Scientists at Imperial College London concluded that global warming, primarily driven by the burning of fossil fuels, significantly amplified both the probability and destructive power of this Category 5 hurricane.
Ralf Toumi, director of Imperial College’s Grantham Institute and a lead researcher on the paper, noted, “While Jamaica possessed ample preparation time and experience, there are inherent limitations to how effectively nations can prepare and adapt to such extreme events.”
He emphasized that “Adapting to climate change is absolutely crucial, but it alone cannot be our full response to global warming. We must also urgently halt the emission of greenhouse gases.”
Employing a robust, peer-reviewed model that simulates millions of potential storm trajectories under varying climate scenarios, the research team discovered a dramatic shift. In a pre-industrial, cooler world, a hurricane of Melissa’s magnitude would likely hit Jamaica only once every 8,100 years. Today, that frequency has plummeted to roughly once every 1,700 years.
With the planet already warmed by approximately 1.3°C (2.3°F) above pre-industrial levels, we are dangerously close to the 1.5°C threshold that scientists deem essential to avert the most catastrophic consequences of climate disruption.
The analysis further indicated that even if such an extreme storm were to occur without any global warming, it would have been considerably weaker. The current 1.3°C warming is responsible for increasing Melissa’s wind speeds by 19 kilometers (12 miles) per hour, a 7% intensification. Projections for a world 2°C hotter show wind speeds could surge by 26 kph.
Hurricane Melissa unleashed an astonishing 76 centimeters (30 inches) of rainfall on the Caribbean island, accompanied by sustained winds that roared at 295 kph (185 mph).
Toumi unequivocally stated, “Man-made climate change undeniably made Hurricane Melissa more powerful and destructive. These types of storms are destined to become even more devastating in the future if we persist in overheating our planet through fossil fuel combustion.”
Despite the intensification, the study acknowledged that the island’s devastation was so thorough that further increases in storm intensity might have resulted in only marginally additional damage.
A critical limitation noted by the researchers was their inability to fully assess climate change’s influence on rainfall, a challenge stemming from the US government shutdown which restricted access to vital satellite data.
Initial assessments by Enki Research estimate direct infrastructure damage to be around $7.7 billion, representing approximately 40% of Jamaica’s GDP. The organization warns that recovery from this economic blow could take at least a decade.
This staggering figure does not even account for broader economic repercussions, such as losses in the tourism sector, disruptions to shipping operations, and impacts on commercial supply chains, which could cumulatively add many more billions to the total cost.