The highly anticipated April summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in China is set to be a grand spectacle. However, underlying tensions concerning trade, Taiwan, and technological disputes could easily disrupt the positive atmosphere.
A White House official confirmed Friday that President Trump is slated for a three-day trip to China, beginning March 31st. While Beijing has yet to formally announce the dates—a common practice for major state visits—Trump has already expressed considerable enthusiasm for the upcoming discussions.
Last week, Trump publicly remarked on his ‘very good relationship’ with President Xi, stating, ‘I’m going to be going to China in April. That’s going to be a wild one.’
He further emphasized his desire for the summit to be ‘the biggest display you’ve ever had in the history of China,’ recalling his 2017 Beijing visit with admiration for the ‘so many soldiers all the same height.’
According to Julian Gewirtz, a former senior director for China and Taiwan Affairs at the National Security Council under President Joseph R. Biden Jr., China views a lavish reception for Trump as a global statement, particularly to its Asian neighbors.
Gewirtz, now a senior research scholar at Columbia University, explained that ‘Xi is sending a global signal that he has successfully managed the U.S. through a year of resistance’ to Trump’s trade war. China aims for Trump’s presence to demonstrate ‘that even the most powerful country in the world has decided that the risks outweigh the benefits of standing up to China.’
Specific details regarding the timing and location of Trump’s discussions with Xi have not yet been released by the White House.
Numerous disagreements between the United States and China threaten to complicate, or even derail, the summit. Furthermore, Trump’s negotiating leverage with Xi may be weakened by a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision that invalidated portions of his imposed tariffs.
Just last week, the Supreme Court overturned a significant portion of tariffs Trump had levied against multiple nations, including China. Despite this, the White House affirmed its intention to reinstate these tariffs using new legal reasoning, and Trump has already unveiled a new 15 percent import tax.
Nevertheless, this legal setback for Trump could embolden Xi, strengthening his belief that China is gaining the upper hand in its rivalry with the United States, according to both Chinese and American analysts.
Professor Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, commented, ‘I think this will put China in a more advantageous position in the forthcoming trade talks with the U.S., and China can also push the U.S. on other fronts.’
Trump’s primary objective in China, as indicated by his past statements, will be to finalize business and investment deals. His administration has also urged Xi to cease using rare earth sales as a strategic tool, a tactic Beijing employed last year in response to U.S. export controls and tariffs.
Scott Kennedy, a Chinese economy researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, observed, ‘China had already turned the tables on the U.S. with its effective use last year of rare earth restrictions to force the U.S. to have reduced tariffs and limit its export controls.’
Xi’s overarching aim for the summit appears to be less about specific gains and more about securing a prolonged period of stability in U.S.-China relations. China’s economy is currently struggling despite a record trade surplus, and Xi has recently conducted extensive purges and investigations within the military. This included the downfall of Zhang Youxia, the highest-ranking general of the People’s Liberation Army (P.L.A.), late last year, following accusations of corruption and disloyalty.
Evan S. Medeiros, a Georgetown University professor and former director for China in the National Security Council under President Obama, stated, ‘At a broad level, I think Xi wants time and stability in relations.’
Professor Medeiros explained that Xi ‘needs time to make the economy more resilient and put it in a long term pathway to growth.’ He added, ‘He needs time to sort out the P.L.A. And he thinks time with Trump in office will help him diplomatically.’
Professor Wu also anticipates that Xi will press Trump for concessions on limiting Chinese technology acquisitions and U.S. investments from China.
Perhaps Xi’s most significant objective is to convince Trump to reduce U.S. support — whether rhetorical, diplomatic, or military — for Taiwan, the democratic island that has long resisted Beijing’s sovereignty claims.
Professor Xin Qiang, director of the Center for Taiwan Studies at Fudan University, noted that Chinese leaders initially hope Trump will declare U.S. opposition to Taiwan seeking independence. Such a statement could signal Trump views Taiwan as a point of contention. Taiwan’s President, Lai Ching-te, maintains the island is already de facto independent, though he has not explicitly called for formal independence.
While Chinese officials likely don’t expect a radical shift in U.S. Taiwan policy from Trump, Professor Xin suggests they will aim to influence him over the next year, anticipating two or three more opportunities for the leaders to meet.
Conversely, if Trump greenlights a fresh round of arms sales to Taiwan, especially after the U.S. approved $11 billion in weapons last December, Professor Xin warns this could severely worsen relations and potentially even jeopardize the summit.
Professor Xin described Trump’s decision-making as ‘arbitrary and uncertain,’ making predictions about Taiwan talks extremely difficult. However, he concluded, ‘But I have always believed that he will not make concessions on major strategic areas.’
Xi is also poised to retaliate if Trump attempts to reinstate tariffs, previously struck down by the Supreme Court, under new legal pretenses.
Currently, Chinese exports to the U.S. face numerous tariffs, often cumulative. The Supreme Court’s ruling removed several of these, including a 10 percent general tariff and another 10 percent tariff imposed due to China’s alleged failure to curb fentanyl and its precursor chemicals entering the U.S.
Should Trump reintroduce these invalidated tariffs under new legal frameworks, Professor Wu from Shanghai warns that China might respond by reducing its imports of U.S. farm produce. Meaghan Tobin and Keith Bradsher contributed reporting.