From bombers and fighter jets to nuclear-capable submarines, Russia has ramped up its military displays in the Arctic region, with analysts recording dozens of such instances over the last year alone.
In response, NATO forces are also actively training and operating in the area. Soon, officials are expected to unveil a new mission aimed at significantly bolstering the trans-Atlantic alliance’s presence in the Arctic, directly confronting an increasingly assertive Russia.
According to officials, NATO can no longer afford to ignore the Arctic or delegate its security entirely to local partners. The region’s warming waters are creating new shipping routes, and Russia’s actions are increasingly challenging the alliance.
Here’s what you need to know:
- A focus driven by former President Trump
- Emerging threats within the Arctic
- How NATO is preparing for these challenges
A Focus Driven by Former President Trump
Experts and officials indicate that this new initiative, named Arctic Sentry, aims to increase troop numbers in the ‘Cap of the North,’ a strategic area encompassing parts of Norway, Sweden, and Finland within the Arctic Circle.
The alliance plans to intensify maritime patrols in the Norwegian Sea, extending through the crucial GIUK Gap—the waterways connecting Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom. This zone could also serve as a crucial testing ground for advanced surveillance drones designed to operate in extreme Arctic weather.
As the American ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, stated, “The Arctic has obviously risen in priority for the alliance, and the alliance is responding.”
According to experts, this move is also intended to reassure former President Trump of NATO’s commitment to Arctic security, demonstrating that the alliance can protect the region without the United States needing to acquire Greenland as a forward defense post—a controversial suggestion that recently caused internal friction within the group.
Minna Alander, an Arctic and defense expert from the Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies, noted that “The Arctic wasn’t really on NATO’s agenda for a long time, but that was because the Arctic allies wanted it so.” She explained that while NATO had previously increased drills in the European Arctic, the “Arctic Sentry” mission likely wouldn’t be happening now if not for Mr. Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland.
Emerging Threats from the Arctic
Since January 2025, Russia has performed at least 33 military maneuvers in the Arctic, with roughly half of these being training exercises, as reported by a Washington-based analysis group, the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
A significant portion of Russia’s Arctic military operations are centered around the Kola Peninsula, home to Moscow’s nuclear-capable submarine fleet. These submarines are safeguarded by extensive coastal, naval, and air patrols, including those from the Northern Fleet headquarters in Murmansk, situated on the ice-free Barents Sea due to warm Atlantic currents.
A primary worry for NATO military officials is the possibility of a Russian nuclear-capable submarine navigating through the Norwegian Sea and the GIUK Gap into the vast Atlantic. Ms. Alander emphasized the severity, stating, “Then it’s game over. It’s really hard to find a submarine in the Atlantic Ocean.”
Beyond overt military displays, Russia is also known for engaging in what officials term “cat-and-mouse games”—evasive maneuvers intended for smuggling illegal oil and potentially disrupting vital energy pipelines and communication cables beneath the sea.
Greenland also presents a significant strategic consideration. As Ms. Alander highlighted, the North Pole offers the shortest trajectory for Russia or China to launch missiles targeting the United States. While former President Trump advocated for placing missile interceptors in Greenland, experts remain divided on whether this would substantially enhance existing U.S. missile defense capabilities. China’s military typically avoids waters near Greenland, though its commercial vessels are present.
NATO’s Strategic Readiness
NATO has already stepped up its maritime patrols in the Norwegian Sea and the GIUK Gap, regions identified by an alliance military officer as critical vulnerability points for Europe and North America due to Russian submarine and ship activity.
Furthermore, a collaborative Nordic air force, comprising pilots from Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark, conducts weekly joint operations. Ms. Alander expects these nations to spearhead the new Arctic Sentry initiative, leveraging their extensive regional expertise.
Britain’s defense secretary, John Healey, was anticipated to declare a doubling of the United Kingdom’s troop deployment to Norway’s Arctic region, reaching 2,000 over the next three years. Additionally, Britain is part of a Swedish-led ground force of at least 4,000 troops stationed in northern Finland, which also includes contributions from France, Iceland, and Italy. This combined force is slated to be fully operational in the upcoming months.
Mr. Healey emphasized the escalating security challenges, stating, “Demands on defense are rising, and Russia poses the greatest threat to Arctic and High North security that we have seen since the Cold War,” and committed Britain to a “vital part” in Arctic Sentry.
NATO, consistently conducting training exercises in the Arctic, plans to deploy approximately 25,000 troops and personnel for new exercises scheduled to commence in mid-March.
The alliance currently operates two additional deterrence missions, mirroring the Arctic initiative, in the Baltic Sea and across Eastern Europe.