The recent recapture of Kyaukme by Myanmar’s military, after only three weeks of intense fighting and relentless air strikes, highlights a significant shift in the civil war’s momentum. This strategically vital town, located on the main trade route to China, had previously fallen to the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) after months of conflict. The military’s aggressive campaign, involving 500-pound bombs, artillery, and drone attacks, has left parts of Kyaukme in ruins, forcing many residents to flee.
The junta’s renewed strength is attributed to several factors, including a significant increase in troop numbers through forced conscription and the acquisition of advanced military technology, particularly drones, from China. These drones, along with motorized paragliders capable of precise bombing, have given the military a decisive edge. While the opposition, a fragmented coalition of ethnic armies and People’s Defence Forces (PDFs), initially gained ground due to the military’s low morale, they are now struggling to counter the junta’s improved capabilities.
China’s role has been pivotal. Initially frustrated by the proliferation of online scam centers in areas allied with the junta, China has now shifted to providing robust support to the military regime. This includes financial and technical aid for the planned December elections, which have been widely condemned for excluding Aung San Suu Kyi’s party and for taking place amidst ongoing conflict. China’s diplomatic backing, evident in recent meetings between junta leader Min Aung Hlaing and Xi Jinping, underscores its priority of stability over democratic principles in the region.
The Brotherhood Alliance, comprising the TNLA, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Arakan Army, had launched Operation 1027 in October 2023, achieving significant early successes. However, under Chinese pressure, the MNDAA has agreed to cease fighting the junta, and the powerful UWSA has committed to halting arms supplies to other opposition groups. This shift in alliances and support reflects China’s strategic interests in Myanmar, viewing it as a crucial gateway to the Indian Ocean.
Despite the junta’s recent gains, particularly along key trade routes like Asian Highway 14, the conflict is far from over. Many areas, including parts of Rakhine and Chin States, remain under the control of resistance groups. The immense human suffering and devastation caused by the ongoing violence have created deep-seated grievances against the military, making a swift political resolution unlikely. The military’s strategy appears to focus on securing strategically important areas, such as towns designated for the upcoming election, rather than controlling the entire country.