Moldovans headed to the polls on Sunday for a critical parliamentary election, a vote poised to decide the nation’s future alignment: a stronger embrace of the European Union or a return to Russia’s influence.
This election holds immense significance, reflecting a deep geopolitical struggle between East and West within Moldova’s political landscape. Situated strategically between Ukraine and Romania, this small nation of 2.4 million people serves as a vital barometer for pro-Western sentiment in the region.
A map highlights Moldova’s strategic position, a small nation nestled between Romania and Ukraine, with Russia lying to its northeast.
The election, which will determine 101 parliamentary representatives for four-year terms, unfolds during a period of significant geopolitical instability for the country.
The current U.S. administration has reduced foreign aid, particularly to Eastern Europe, and scaled back American influence in the region, affecting organizations like Radio Free Europe and Voice of America. In Moldova, President Maia Sandu’s pro-European party alleges that Russia is attempting to manipulate the vote. They claim Russia is funneling vast sums into sophisticated disinformation campaigns, often powered by AI-generated false news.
On election day, signs of this interference were apparent. The Moldovan government reported both cyberattacks on its electoral systems and numerous hoax bomb threats targeting polling stations in cities stretching from Rome and Brussels to Bucharest, Romania, and even Asheville, North Carolina. Moldova’s significant diaspora population, predominantly pro-European, plays a crucial role in the election’s outcome.
Beyond foreign influence, critical domestic issues also weigh heavily on voters. Moldova’s economy struggles with minimal growth, high energy costs, and widespread poverty. These challenges present significant hurdles for Ms. Sandu’s party.
Marta Kos, the European Union Commissioner overseeing the bloc’s expansion, emphasized the broader implications of this election. “It is about much more than Moldova,” she stated. “It is also about us. It is also about the European Union.”
The Geopolitical Tug-of-War: Moldova’s Path to Europe or Russia?
Moldova gained independence over thirty years ago with the collapse of the U.S.S.R., yet a significant Russian-speaking community still resides there. Historically, Russia and Moldova shared strong economic connections, and the Russian Orthodox Church continues to wield considerable influence.
However, in recent years, Moldova has steadily aligned itself with the 27-member European Union. President Maia Sandu, a pro-European leader, was elected in 2020. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, pursuing closer ties with Europe appeared to be Moldova’s most viable strategy to prevent future dominance by Moscow.
In 2022, Moldova formally applied for European Union membership. By last October, a national referendum solidified public support for joining the bloc, embedding this aspiration into the Moldovan constitution.
However, the national referendum passed by a very slim margin—50.4 percent in favor to 49.5 percent against—highlighting a widening chasm between the country’s pro-European and pro-Russian factions.
This narrow margin from last year’s vote suggests that Ms. Sandu’s party might struggle to retain its parliamentary majority. A loss of control would significantly impede their ability to implement the necessary reforms for Moldova’s eventual accession to the European Union.
Sergiu Panainte, deputy director of the German Marshall Fund’s Bucharest office, commented on the urgency: “We are so close in the negotiations with the E.U., and there is a window of opportunity.” He explained that Russia’s aggressive involvement in the election stems from its leadership’s belief that “Moldova is about to be lost for them pretty much forever.”
Key Players in Moldova’s Political Arena
President Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity, advocating for closer European Union relations, won 63 seats in the previous election held in 2021.
They now face opposition from pro-Russian candidates, primarily united under the Patriotic Electoral Bloc coalition.
Voters have several options: they can choose to support a specific political party, an electoral bloc composed of multiple parties, or an independent candidate.
Should Ms. Sandu’s party fail to secure an absolute majority, they might need to form a coalition with other political groups, or the country could face a snap election, according to Mr. Panainte.
Unmasking Election Interference and Local Challenges
Russia has actively leveraged various social media platforms, including TikTok, Telegram, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube, alongside artificial intelligence, to disseminate misinformation targeting Ms. Sandu and her party. The current U.S. administration’s policies have resulted in fewer mechanisms to counter Russian influence from the United States.
During Moldova’s previous elections, the Biden administration had actively pressed American tech platforms to improve their efforts in identifying and removing inauthentic accounts. However, this initiative has ceased under the new White House. Furthermore, Meta, Facebook’s parent company, has reduced its fact-checking operations on Facebook, a platform extensively used in Moldova.
Despite these challenges, both the European Union and Ms. Sandu’s party have undertaken efforts to counteract Russian propaganda in Moldova. Commissioner Kos, for instance, has made three visits to the country, engaging with local mayors and Orthodox priests.
Days before the election, Moldovan police arrested several individuals suspected of planning to incite unrest.
Both political analysts and government authorities remain concerned about potential outcomes. Should Russian-aligned parties fare poorly, there is a risk of protests or a refusal to acknowledge the election results. Conversely, a strong performance by these parties could jeopardize Moldova’s aspirations for European Union membership.
“I don’t believe, if the pro-Russian forces win, that Moldova will go the European way,” remarked Ms. Kos.
Anticipating the Election Results
Polling stations were open from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. local time, with initial results expected to emerge after their closure. While a preliminary count might be available late Sunday night or early Monday, the official certification of the results is anticipated to take several days.
Steven Lee Myers also contributed to this report.