Moldova is on the brink of a high-stakes parliamentary election this Sunday, a vote poised to either propel its journey toward European Union membership or draw the nation back into Russia’s orbit.
This political tug-of-war between East and West lends immense significance to the election. Nestled between Ukraine and Romania, tiny Moldova, with its 2.4 million citizens, holds a vital strategic position and serves as a crucial barometer for sentiment towards Western Europe. The outcome will shape not only Moldova’s future but also regional dynamics.
A map visually illustrates Moldova’s strategic location, situated between Romania and Ukraine, with Russia extending to its northeast.
This election, which will determine 101 representatives for four-year terms, arrives at a volatile moment in global geopolitics.
Notably, the current administration has scaled back foreign assistance to Eastern Europe and distanced itself from key channels of American influence, such as Radio Free Europe and Voice of America. In Moldova, President Maia Sandu’s pro-European party alleges that Russia is actively attempting to sway the vote through extensive disinformation campaigns. These efforts are reportedly fueled by millions of dollars and involve false narratives generated by artificial intelligence.
Domestic challenges are also significant. Moldova’s economy is struggling with minimal growth, high energy prices are a heavy burden, and widespread poverty persists. These grievances present a formidable challenge for Ms. Sandu’s party as they seek to retain power.
Marta Kos, the European Union commissioner overseeing the bloc’s expansion, emphasized the broader implications of this election. “It is about much more than Moldova,” she stated. “It is also about us; it is also about the European Union.”
Will Moldova move toward Russia?
Despite gaining independence over three decades ago following the collapse of the U.S.S.R., Moldova still has a substantial Russian-speaking population. Historically, both nations have maintained close economic ties, and the Russian Orthodox Church wields considerable influence.
However, in recent years, Moldova has steadily gravitated towards the 27-nation European Union. Ms. Sandu’s election in 2020 marked a significant turn. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, aligning with Europe appeared to be Moldova’s most viable path to safeguard against future dominance by Moscow.
Moldova formally applied for European Union membership in 2022. Last October, a national referendum solidified public support for joining the bloc, embedding it into the Moldovan constitution.
An image shows President Maia Sandu of Moldova addressing the European Union’s Parliament in Strasbourg, France, earlier this month.
Yet, voter approval for the EU measure was narrow, with 50.4 percent in favor and 49.5 percent against, highlighting a growing schism between the nation’s pro-European and pro-Russian factions.
The close results of last year’s vote suggest that Ms. Sandu’s party could lose its parliamentary majority this time around. This would complicate the necessary reforms for Moldova’s eventual entry into the European Union.
“We are so close in the negotiations with the E.U., and there is a window of opportunity,” remarked Sergiu Panainte, deputy director of the German Marshall Fund’s Bucharest office. He added that Russia’s intense involvement in the election stems from its leaders’ realization that “Moldova is about to be lost for them pretty much forever.”
What are the parties?
Ms. Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity, which champions stronger European Union ties, secured 63 seats in the last election in 2021.
An image depicts leaders of the pro-European party at a rally in Chisinau last month.
The party is now contending with pro-Russian candidates, primarily represented by the Patriotic Electoral Bloc coalition.
Voters have the option to cast their ballot for a political party, an electoral bloc composed of two or more parties, or an independent candidate. A total of 23 competitors are registered, including 15 political parties, four coalitions, and four independent candidates.
If Ms. Sandu’s party fails to secure an absolute majority, it may need to form a coalition with other parties, as suggested by Mr. Panainte. Alternatively, the country could face a snap follow-up election.
What has happened so far?
Russia has leveraged social media platforms like TikTok, Telegram, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube, alongside artificial intelligence, to disseminate misinformation about Ms. Sandu and her party. The current administration’s policies have led to fewer checks on Russian influence from the United States.
During Moldova’s previous elections, officials had urged American platforms to enhance efforts in identifying inauthentic accounts. However, this directive has ceased with the new administration. Compounding this, Meta has reduced its fact-checking staff at Facebook, a platform widely used across Moldova.
The United States has also cut funding for the region, including financial support aimed at bolstering Moldova’s “inclusive and participatory political process.” This reduction in aid parallels the diminished support for Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia.
Despite these challenges, both the European Union and Ms. Sandu’s party are actively working to counteract Russian messaging within Moldova. Commissioner Kos, for instance, has visited the country three times, engaging with mayors and Orthodox priests.
Furthermore, Moldovan police detained dozens of individuals just days before the election, accusing them of plotting to incite disorder.
Political scientists and authorities remain concerned that if pro-Russian parties perform poorly, it could lead to protests or a refusal to accept the election results. Conversely, strong performance by these parties could jeopardize Moldova’s aspirations for EU membership.
“I don’t believe, if the pro-Russian forces win, that Moldova will go the European way,” Ms. Kos asserted.
When will results come in?
Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. local time, with initial results expected after closing. A final count may be available as early as Sunday night or by early Monday, though official certification could take several days.
Steven Lee Myers contributed reporting.