Moldova held a critical parliamentary election on Sunday, with the outcome poised to determine whether the nation further integrates with the European Union or shifts back towards Russia’s sphere of influence.
This election carries immense geopolitical weight. Moldova, a small country of 2.4 million people nestled between Ukraine and Romania, serves as a crucial barometer of pro-Western sentiment in Eastern Europe. The struggle between Eastern and Western allegiances has defined its political landscape.
An important map illustrates Moldova’s strategic position, bordered by Romania to the west, Ukraine to the east, and with Russia lying further to its northeast.
The vote for 101 parliamentary representatives, who will serve four-year terms, arrives at a highly unstable period in Moldova’s international relations.
Recent shifts in foreign policy, particularly from the Trump administration, have seen cuts in aid to Eastern Europe and a diminished American presence, including reduced support for institutions like Radio Free Europe and Voice of America. In this environment, Moldova’s ruling pro-European party, led by President Maia Sandu, has accused Russia of attempting to manipulate the election. They claim Russia is funneling hundreds of millions of dollars into vast disinformation campaigns, often powered by AI-generated fake news.
Indeed, electoral interference was anticipated and seemingly active on Sunday. The Moldovan government reported cyberattacks targeting its electoral systems and numerous fake bomb threats at polling stations in cities stretching from Rome and Brussels to Bucharest and even Asheville, N.C. Moldova’s significant diaspora plays a vital role in its pro-European Union vote.
Beyond geopolitical concerns, pressing domestic issues dominate public discourse. Moldova faces sluggish economic growth, burdensome energy costs, and widespread poverty. These challenges present significant hurdles for President Sandu’s party.
However, Marta Kos, the European Union Commissioner overseeing the bloc’s expansion, emphasized that the election transcends Moldova’s borders. “It is also about us,” she stated, “It is also about the European Union.”
Will Moldova align more closely with Russia?
After gaining independence over three decades ago with the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moldova still hosts a considerable Russian-speaking population. The two nations share deep historical economic ties, and the Russian Orthodox Church maintains significant influence within Moldova.
Yet, in recent years, Moldova has increasingly gravitated towards the 27-nation European Union. Maia Sandu was elected president in 2020. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, strengthening ties with Europe appeared to be Moldova’s most viable path to prevent future Russian dominance.
In 2022, Moldova formally applied for European Union membership. By October of the same year, a national referendum solidified public support for joining the bloc within the Moldovan Constitution.
An image depicts President Maia Sandu of Moldova addressing microphones, with the prominent European Union flag visible behind her at the EU Parliament in Strasbourg, France.
Despite the referendum, public support for EU membership was surprisingly close, with 50.4 percent in favor and 49.5 percent against. This narrow margin highlights a growing ideological rift between the nation’s pro-European and pro-Russian factions.
The tight referendum result indicates that President Sandu’s party could potentially lose its parliamentary majority in this election. Such an outcome would complicate its efforts to implement the necessary reforms for eventual EU accession.
Sergiu Panainte, deputy director of the German Marshall Fund’s Bucharest office, remarked, “We are so close in the negotiations with the E.U., and there is a window of opportunity.” He added that Russia’s intense involvement in the election stems from its leadership’s realization that “Moldova is about to be lost for them pretty much forever.”
What are the main political parties?
In the previous 2021 election, President Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity, which advocates for closer European Union ties, secured a strong majority of 63 seats.
An image shows leaders of the pro-European party addressing a rally in Chisinau last month, with people standing against a yellow background waving multicolored signs.
This time, they face strong opposition from various pro-Russian candidates, most notably the Patriotic Electoral Bloc coalition.
Voters have the option to choose a political party, an electoral bloc composed of multiple parties, or independent candidates.
Should President Sandu’s party fail to secure an absolute majority, a coalition government with other parties might be formed, or the country could face a snap election, according to Mr. Panainte.
What actions have been taken so far?
Russia has extensively utilized platforms like TikTok, Telegram, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, and even artificial intelligence to disseminate misinformation about President Sandu and her party. The current Trump administration’s policies have resulted in fewer restraints on Russia’s actions from the United States.
During Moldova’s last elections, the Biden administration had urged American social media platforms to enhance their efforts in identifying and combating inauthentic accounts. However, this initiative has ceased under the new White House. Consequently, Meta has notably reduced its fact-checking operations on Facebook, a widely used platform in Moldova.
Despite these challenges, both the European Union and President Sandu’s party are actively working to counter Russian narratives in Moldova. Commissioner Kos has made three visits to the country, engaging with mayors and Orthodox priests to build support.
Furthermore, Moldovan police recently arrested dozens of individuals suspected of plotting to incite civil unrest just days before the election.
Political analysts and authorities share concerns that a poor performance by Russian-aligned parties could trigger protests or a refusal to accept election results. Conversely, if pro-Russian parties succeed, Moldova’s aspirations for EU membership could be jeopardized.
“I don’t believe, if the pro-Russian forces win, that Moldova will go the European way,” Ms. Kos asserted.
When are the election results expected?
Polling stations were open from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. local time, with initial results expected shortly after closing. A full count might be available as early as Sunday night or by Monday morning, though official confirmation will take a few more days.
Steven Lee Myers also contributed to this report.