Moldova recently held a parliamentary election with significant implications, poised to either advance its aspirations for European Union membership or draw it closer to Russia.
This electoral contest, a geopolitical tug-of-war between East and West, holds immense importance for Moldova. The small nation, home to 2.4 million people and nestled between Ukraine and Romania, represents a strategic point and a vital indicator of regional sentiment towards Western Europe.
Voters cast ballots for 101 parliamentary representatives, who will serve four-year terms. The election takes place during a period of considerable geopolitical instability.
The current U.S. administration has reduced foreign aid, particularly to Eastern Europe, and scaled back American influence in the region, including support for organizations like Radio Free Europe and Voice of America. In Moldova, President Maia Sandu’s pro-European party has accused Russia of attempting to manipulate the vote. They claim Russia is funneling vast sums into sophisticated disinformation campaigns, often powered by AI-generated fake news.
Election day saw anticipated interference. The Moldovan government reported cyberattacks on its electoral systems and numerous hoax bomb threats at polling stations, including those serving the Moldovan diaspora in cities like Rome, Brussels, Bucharest, and Asheville, N.C. The diaspora plays a crucial role in the pro-European Union vote. Police also announced the detention of three individuals believed to be planning disruptive protests after the vote, found with “pyrotechnics and inflammables” in their vehicle.
Domestic concerns were also prominent, with Moldova facing a struggling economy, high energy costs, and widespread poverty. These issues created significant challenges for Ms. Sandu’s party.
Marta Kos, the European Union commissioner for enlargement, emphasized that the election’s significance extends beyond Moldova itself, stating, “It is also about us. It is also about the European Union.”
Will Moldova move toward Russia?
Despite declaring independence from the Soviet Union over three decades ago, Moldova retains a substantial Russian-speaking population and historically close economic ties with Russia. The Russian Orthodox Church also wields considerable influence in the country.
However, in recent years, Moldova has actively pursued closer relations with the 27-nation European Union. Ms. Sandu’s election in 2020 marked a shift, and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 further solidified the belief that aligning with Europe was Moldova’s best defense against future Russian dominance.
Moldova officially applied for European Union membership in 2022. Last October, a national referendum formally enshrined support for joining the bloc into the Moldovan Constitution.
Yet, the referendum’s outcome was remarkably close, with 50.4 percent voting in favor and 49.5 percent against, highlighting a growing divide between pro-European and pro-Russian factions within the nation.
This narrow margin suggests that Ms. Sandu’s party could potentially lose its parliamentary majority in the current election. Such a loss would significantly hinder the party’s ability to implement the necessary reforms for eventual European Union accession.
Sergiu Panainte, deputy director of the German Marshall Fund’s Bucharest office, noted the critical timing: “We are so close in the negotiations with the E.U., and there is a window of opportunity.” He added that Russia’s aggressive involvement in the election stems from its leaders understanding that Moldova is on the verge of being irrevocably lost to their influence.
What are the parties?
In the last election held in 2021, Ms. Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity, which advocates for stronger European Union ties, secured 63 seats.
This time, it is competing against a range of pro-Russian candidates, primarily the Patriotic Electoral Bloc coalition.
Voters have the option to choose between political parties, electoral blocs composed of two or more parties, or independent candidates.
If Ms. Sandu’s party fails to win an absolute majority, Mr. Panainte indicated that a coalition with other parties might be formed, or the country could face a snap follow-up election.
What has happened so far?
Russia has extensively utilized platforms like TikTok, Telegram, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, and artificial intelligence to disseminate false information about Ms. Sandu and her party. The current U.S. administration’s policies have resulted in fewer checks on Russian interference from the United States.
During Moldova’s previous elections, the previous U.S. administration urged American social media platforms to enhance efforts in identifying inauthentic accounts. However, this focus has diminished under the new White House. Furthermore, Meta has reduced its number of fact-checkers for Facebook, a platform widely used in Moldova.
Despite these challenges, both the European Union and Ms. Sandu’s party have actively worked to counter Russian narratives in Moldova. Commissioner Kos, for instance, has visited the country three times, engaging with local mayors and Orthodox priests.
Political analysts and authorities remain concerned that a poor performance by Russian-aligned parties could trigger protests or a refusal to accept the election results. Conversely, a strong showing by these parties could jeopardize Moldova’s aspirations for European Union integration.
“I don’t believe, if the pro-Russian forces win, that Moldova will go the European way,” Ms. Kos asserted.
When will results come in?
Polls were open from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. local time, with initial results anticipated throughout Sunday night. A final count is expected to be available late Sunday or early Monday, though the official certification of the results will take a few more days.