Moldovans are heading to the polls today in a pivotal parliamentary election, an event fraught with tension and shadowed by widespread claims of Russian interference. This vote isn’t just about choosing a new government; it’s a defining moment for the country, deciding whether it moves closer to the European Union or drifts back towards Moscow.
This crucial election will determine the makeup of the 101-seat parliament. Following the vote, Moldova’s president will nominate a prime minister, typically from the leading party or coalition, who will then attempt to form a new government requiring parliamentary approval. Polls opened at 7 a.m. local time and are set to close at 9 p.m. By late morning, the Central Electoral Commission reported that over 400,000 people, roughly 14% of eligible voters, had already cast their votes.
A Geopolitical Tug-of-War: Pro-Western vs. Pro-Russian Forces
The election features a fiercely contested battle between the ruling pro-Western Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), which has enjoyed a strong parliamentary majority since 2021 but now risks losing it, and several Russia-friendly opposition parties. The absence of strong pro-European partners among the opposition leaves the country’s future geopolitical direction uncertain.
Moldova’s pro-Western President, Maia Sandu, reiterated her long-standing concerns about Russia’s “massive interference” in the election after casting her ballot. She emphasized that her vote was “to keep the peace” and reaffirmed her belief that Moldova’s future lies firmly within the EU. “Russia poses a danger to our democracies,” she stated. “Our democracy is young and fragile, but that does not mean that states with longer democracies are not in danger. We want to live in a democracy. Today, in our country, democracy is in the hands of Moldovans — only they can save the Republic of Moldova.”
Landlocked between war-torn Ukraine and EU member Romania, Moldova, a nation of approximately 2.5 million people, has been actively pursuing a westward trajectory. It notably gained EU candidate status in 2022, shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Allegations of Russian Interference Raise Alarm
In the days leading up to today’s vote, Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean issued a stark warning, claiming Russia is investing “hundreds of millions” of euros in a “hybrid war” aimed at seizing power. He described this as “the final battle for our country’s future,” urging citizens, “I call on every Moldovan at home and across Europe: We cannot change what Russia does, but we can change what we do as a people. Turn worry into mobilization and thoughtful action … Help stop their schemes.”
Authorities allege that Russia’s interference strategies include widespread vote-buying, cyberattacks targeting critical government infrastructure, plans to incite mass riots surrounding the election, and an extensive online disinformation campaign designed to erode support for the pro-European ruling party and bolster Moscow-aligned factions. Russia has consistently denied these allegations, labeling them “anti-Russian” and “unsubstantiated.”
Moldovan officials have also warned that election day could see orchestrated disruptions such as false bomb threats, further cyberattacks, temporary power outages, and street violence perpetrated by trained individuals. In response, law enforcement conducted hundreds of raids before the vote, resulting in numerous detentions. President Sandu assured the public after voting, “The state is doing everything to ensure that people are safe and the vote is protected.”
The Crucial Role of Diaspora Voters
Moldova’s substantial diaspora population is expected to play a critical role in today’s outcome. In last year’s presidential run-off, also framed as a choice between East and West, a record 327,000 Moldovans living abroad cast their ballots. Over 82% of these votes went to Ms. Sandu, ultimately securing her re-election.
Among the key challengers to the PAS party is the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc, a coalition of parties advocating for “friendship with Russia” and “permanent neutrality.” Other contenders include the populist Our Party, which seeks a “balanced foreign policy” between East and West, and the Alternativa Bloc, criticized by some as pro-European in name but leaning towards closer ties with Moscow.
Igor Dodon, a former president and member of the Patriotic Electoral Bloc, remarked on election day, “This is the day when the people are not afraid, but others are afraid of the people. We go out and vote. We choose a country where people’s fear will disappear. We choose a normal life for citizens — we believe in Moldova.”
In recent years, Moldova has grappled with a series of crises, including soaring inflation, instability from the conflict in neighboring Ukraine, rising living costs, and high poverty rates. These challenges may have contributed to a dip in support for the pro-European ruling party, which Ms. Sandu founded in 2016. While most local polls suggest PAS will secure the largest share of votes, these polls often exclude Moldova’s significant diaspora, and about a third of the electorate remains undecided. Turnout in the 2021 parliamentary election was just over 48%.
Iulian Groza, executive director of the Institute for European Policies and Reforms think tank, suggests that a higher voter turnout would likely bolster PAS’s chances of securing a majority. He observed, “Any party in government has a tendency to erode in public support, and in the last four years, Moldova has experienced multiple crises. After four years … despite various crises we had, I think we can say very clearly that Moldova resisted in the face of this Russian aggression.”