For almost two years, Arab nations with cautious diplomatic ties to Israel have largely navigated the conflict in Gaza as a complex political challenge, maintaining communication despite deep-seated frustrations.
However, a recent rapid succession of Israeli strikes—first on Hamas officials in Qatar, then a ground invasion of Gaza City—has dramatically shifted the perception. These actions have left several Arab states gravely concerned that their own national security might now be directly jeopardized.
The September 9th strike on Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar’s capital, ignited widespread condemnation across the Middle East and globally. Qatar, a crucial U.S. ally, has been instrumental in mediating peace efforts to resolve the ongoing Gaza conflict.
H.A. Hellyer, a prominent Middle East security expert from the Royal United Services Institute in London and the Center for American Progress in Washington, emphasized the seriousness of the situation, stating, ‘For Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey, it would be reckless not to anticipate potential attacks on their own soil.’
Following the Qatar strike, a large-scale ground invasion of densely populated Gaza City commenced last week, forcing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to flee southwards within the Gaza Strip.
Israel justified its actions in Qatar as part of a broader strategy to deny safe havens to Hamas, citing the group’s October 7, 2023 attack that initiated the Gaza war. The Gaza City offensive, according to Israel, aims to dismantle Hamas in one of its remaining key strongholds.
Among the most vehement reactions to these Israeli operations has been that of Egypt, the first Arab nation to formalize peace with Israel in 1979. Egypt, much like Qatar, has played a crucial role as a mediator in the ongoing Gaza cease-fire talks.
Analysts suggest that the Doha attack casts doubt on the inviolability of any regional nation, prompting concerns in Egypt about its own potential vulnerability to Israeli strikes.
During an urgent regional summit in Doha last week, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi controversially labeled Israel an “enemy.” Diaa Rashwan, head of Egypt’s state media, noted this as the first instance an Egyptian president had used such a term since peace efforts with Israel began in the late 1970s, marking a significant diplomatic shift.
Rashwan affirmed that the word choice was deliberate.
He explained on the Egyptian television program ‘Studio Extra,’ ‘Our national security is under threat, and only an enemy can threaten national security.’
As Israeli forces pushed into Gaza City last week, with many Palestinians still trapped, Egypt’s Foreign Ministry issued a dire warning of “catastrophic dangers,” condemning the operation as a “new phase of chaos resulting from Israeli recklessness and excessive arrogance.”
Public sentiment across the Arab world, including Egypt, was already at a boiling point due to the war’s devastating toll, which has claimed tens of thousands of Palestinian lives.
With a shared border in the Sinai Peninsula with southern Gaza, Egyptian officials are deeply concerned that the intensifying conflict, leaving Palestinians with virtually no safe refuge, could trigger an overwhelming influx of desperate refugees towards their border.
The prospect of such a mass exodus has long been a major worry for Egyptian authorities, partly due to fears of being perceived as complicit in Israel’s displacement of Palestinians.
Equally pressing are domestic security implications. The potential for Hamas militants to cross into Egypt alongside refugees could provoke retaliatory Israeli strikes on Egyptian territory. Already facing significant economic challenges, Egypt, which has taken in over 100,000 medical evacuees and others from Gaza, is anxious about the additional strain a larger refugee crisis would impose.
Moreover, reports from Israeli media indicate that Israel has conveyed concerns to Washington regarding an alleged Egyptian military buildup in the Sinai Peninsula. The Egyptian government has refrained from commenting on these claims, and independent verification remains elusive.
However, Yehia el-Kadwani, a member of the Egyptian Parliament’s defense and national security committee, cautioned that any such military actions by Egypt would serve as a clear warning.
He asserted that displacing Palestinians constitutes ‘a red line,’ and ‘Egypt will take a stance if this occurs.’
Jordan, another Arab nation with a long-standing peace accord with Israel, is also observing Israel’s recent actions with growing apprehension. Its border lies adjacent to the Israeli-occupied West Bank, home to approximately three million Palestinians.
Amidst a global trend of increasing recognition for a Palestinian state in the wake of the Gaza war, Israel has escalated threats to annex significant portions of the West Bank.
According to Hellyer, Jordan’s primary concern is that Israel might attempt to push Palestinians across its border from the West Bank.
Similarly, Gulf nations are re-evaluating their strategies and positions following Israel’s latest military engagements.
Historically, Gulf states perceived Iran as their main regional adversary, leading some, like the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in 2020, to normalize relations with Israel, finding common ground against a shared enemy.
However, Hellyer notes a swift shift in this dynamic.
He elaborates that these nations now view Israel as a more significant threat to both Gulf and broader regional security.
While Qatar never formalized diplomatic relations with Israel, it sustained amicable ties, even hosting Israeli officials for Gaza cease-fire talks. This fragile relationship was irrevocably broken by the attack on Doha.
In response, some Gulf nations are adopting measures that extend beyond mere verbal condemnations.
Notably, Saudi Arabia recently unveiled a new ‘strategic defense pact’ with nuclear-armed Pakistan, a declaration signaling that an assault on one would be considered an attack on both.
Analysts interpret this agreement as partly reflecting growing dissatisfaction with the United States for what is perceived as insufficient action to safeguard the Gulf region.
Andreas Krieg, a Middle East expert at King’s College London, warned in a recent article that the entire region faces the peril of descending into a broader conflict, reminiscent of the Arab-Israeli wars between 1948 and 1973.
For decades, the normalization of Israeli relations with several Arab states had largely confined the conflict to an Israeli-Palestinian issue. However, Krieg cautions that each new Israeli escalation now significantly heightens the risk of drawing more Arab nations into a widespread confrontation.
He concluded, ‘Arab publics, already incensed by the situation in Gaza, now perceive Israel as a tangible threat to all Arabs collectively.’
Additional reporting was contributed by Rania Khaled.