Last year, after Venezuela’s autocrat effectively stole a presidential election that Maria Corina Machado’s movement had clearly won, the opposition leader was forced into hiding.
Fast forward to today: Ms. Machado is a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, U.S. warships patrol near Venezuela’s coast, and the United States labels President Nicolás Maduro a “narco-terrorist” and a fugitive from American law.
While this prestigious Nobel award has undoubtedly invigorated Ms. Machado’s supporters, it has also brought sharp focus to the immense challenges she faces. She must not only meet the fervent hopes of Venezuelans yearning for change but also contend with growing scrutiny over her unyielding, hard-line political strategies.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee specifically lauded Ms. Machado’s dedication to a “peaceful transition” to democracy. However, her actions to oust Mr. Maduro have included advocating for a military uprising and fully endorsing former President Trump’s aggressive military actions against alleged drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean.
“You can’t negotiate with a criminal narco-terrorist apparatus from a position of weakness,” Ms. Machado recently stated, referencing the U.S.’s military pressure. She further asserted, “The path to peace lies through liberty, and to achieve liberty, one must possess strength.”
Her perceived willingness to endorse violent methods for democratic ends has sparked intense online debates, both within Venezuela and among its diaspora.
Supporters argue that last year’s decisive electoral victory and the Nobel Peace Prize itself serve as a powerful validation of her unwavering political strategy.
“If there were any doubts about our strategy, Maria Corina’s Nobel award confirms we are on the right path,” explained a representative for Ms. Machado, who requested anonymity due to fears of government reprisal.
However, the validity of such claims is hard to verify. Intense government repression and profound political polarization have compelled independent Venezuelan pollsters to cease publishing survey results or issuing public statements.
The New York Times has acquired data from three independent, Venezuelan-based polling companies, whose separate surveys conducted in August or September confirm Ms. Machado’s continued status as Venezuela’s most popular political figure.
Furthermore, two of these polls indicate a net positive sentiment towards her leadership, with more Venezuelans supporting her than opposing. Her remarkable personal courage and consistent political convictions — a blend of strong advocacy for personal freedoms, social conservatism, and economic liberalism — have earned her broad admiration since she began her activism in the early 2000s.
According to these pollsters, Ms. Machado’s firm stance against political alliances, her tight grip on her movement, and her absolute refusal to negotiate with the current government have helped her sidestep the corruption scandals and internal betrayals that plagued previous leaders of the Venezuelan opposition.
Yet, these very qualities have also drawn criticism, with some labeling her approach as sectarian and dogmatic.
“Dialogue, mutual understanding, and negotiations are three words absent from her vocabulary,” commented Vladimir Villegas, a respected Venezuelan journalist and former senior official who, despite breaking with Mr. Maduro, remains critical of Ms. Machado’s methods. “Ultimately,” he added, “all conflicts conclude with negotiations.”
Ms. Machado’s popularity soared last summer when she spearheaded a powerful grassroots electoral campaign, successfully challenging Mr. Maduro in a presidential election.
However, Mr. Maduro swiftly dismissed the election outcome, declared himself the victor, and brutally suppressed any protests against his rule. Since then, poll data indicates that Ms. Machado’s perceived inability to effectively counter the authoritarian Maduro government has gradually diminished public faith in her movement.
One recent survey from September revealed that only about 20 percent of Venezuelans believe Ms. Machado can bring about political change, a significant drop from over 50 percent at the time of the July 2024 election. The same poll showed a decline in her positive political perception, from approximately 60 percent in July 2024 to about 50 percent last month.
In contrast, Mr. Maduro’s approval rating remained low at 18 percent last month.
These findings, shared with The Times by the pollster on condition of anonymity due to fears of government repression, are consistent with results from another independent survey also reviewed by The Times.
To sustain pressure on the government, Ms. Machado sought backing from the international community. Her strongest supporter emerged in former President Trump, whose administration had labeled Mr. Maduro’s government a drug cartel posing a threat to U.S. security. Privately, American officials made it clear that their ultimate objective was to remove Mr. Maduro from power.
While her alliance with Mr. Trump provided a powerful political tool, it also linked her to policies that have historically divided Venezuelans and often failed to achieve their stated goals.
Notably, Ms. Machado remained largely quiet when the Trump administration revoked temporary protected status for hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan migrants, leading to widespread detentions and deportations. She also publicly supported Mr. Trump’s controversial decision to send 250 Venezuelan migrants to a maximum-security prison in El Salvador without due process, alleging, with scant evidence, that they were members of a transnational gang.
Furthermore, she has endorsed stricter economic sanctions against Venezuela. While these measures aimed to limit the government’s access to foreign currency, they also dramatically reduced the purchasing power of most Venezuelans, contributing to rampant inflation.
Most recently, Ms. Machado publicly welcomed the Trump administration’s decision to deploy warships to the Caribbean and, without presenting evidence of crimes, kill at least 27 individuals suspected of drug smuggling off Venezuela’s coast. Many experts have condemned these actions as extrajudicial killings.
This week, the Trump administration further escalated pressure on Mr. Maduro, secretly authorizing the C.I.A. to conduct covert operations within Venezuela, as confirmed by U.S. officials. Trump himself also hinted on Wednesday at the possibility of military strikes inside the country.
Despite the escalating tensions, independent polls reveal a strong rejection of armed intervention among most Venezuelans. A September survey indicated that only about 30 percent of respondents would support foreign military violence to achieve political change.
However, some Venezuelans who do endorse this path argue they have no other viable options.
“I completely agree with the warships here by the Caribbean coast, because, to tell you the truth, what else is left?” stated José, a 52-year-old Caracas resident, in a recent interview, citing “25 years of this government.” The Times has withheld the full names of interviewees for their safety.
The current government has capitalized on the widespread fear of violence, positioning itself as the sole guarantor of stability and peace, contrasting this with a narrative of chaos and anarchy that would supposedly ensue if Ms. Machado were to take power. Privately, government officials view Ms. Machado’s endorsement of violent actions, like lethal strikes on suspected drug traffickers, as a key opportunity to politically marginalize her.
Ms. Machado’s apparent disinterest in the plight of deported Venezuelans from the United States has alienated some of their families back home, including individuals who previously supported her electoral campaign.
Just a year prior, migration had been central to Ms. Machado’s successful electoral strategy. She had promised voters that her movement would reunite millions of Venezuelan families torn apart by the exodus caused by Mr. Maduro’s devastating economic policies. This message profoundly energized the nation, propelling Ms. Machado from the fringes to become the leading figure of the opposition.
“I used to get emotional when she spoke about the return of Venezuelans, of everyone who migrated, everyone who had to leave,” recalled Josefina, an activist from Ms. Machado’s last year’s campaign. “But since she aligned with Trump, this message seems to have vanished. It has annoyed and even hurt me.”
A leading pollster noted that his focus groups indicated many Venezuelans have come to accept the Trump administration’s narrative that most deportees are criminals undeserving of public sympathy. (This year, the U.S. repatriated approximately 15,000 Venezuelans to their home country.)
Historically, the hard-line policies championed by Ms. Machado have proven ineffective in dislodging authoritarian regimes during various periods of Venezuela’s modern history, according to Laura Gamboa, a democracy expert at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana. She emphasized that military interventions seldom lead to sustained democracy elsewhere in the world.
“They are banking on a strategy that will likely cause the regime to dig in even deeper,” Gamboa stated in a telephone interview, referring to Ms. Machado’s movement.
Ms. Machado has consistently argued that past attempts by other opposition groups to negotiate with Mr. Maduro have been fruitless, only serving to bolster his government.