After months of stalled negotiations, a significant agreement has been struck between Israel and Hamas for an exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. This breakthrough marks a critical step towards de-escalation in the devastating conflict in Gaza, which recently passed its two-year mark.
President Trump, who actively brokered the deal, announced on social media that both sides had consented to the initial phase of his proposed peace plan. This first phase mandates a withdrawal of Israeli troops to a pre-determined line. The President also hinted at a potential trip to the region this weekend, where ongoing negotiations are taking place in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed his intention to convene his cabinet on Thursday to formalize the agreement. The Israeli military expressed its support, stating preparations are underway for the safe return of hostages and an ‘adjusted deployment’ of forces soon. “With God’s help we will bring them all home,” Mr. Netanyahu affirmed.
However, many complex issues remain unresolved, deferred to future negotiation phases. These include the governance of postwar Gaza and the extent to which Hamas might disarm. In Gaza, where food shortages have led experts to declare famine in parts of the territory, aid workers are hopeful that supplies can now be rapidly delivered to those in urgent need.
Hamas, in a statement, indicated that the agreement signifies an end to the war and Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza. Both Hamas and Qatar, a key mediator, confirmed that the deal facilitates the entry of humanitarian aid into the enclave. Hamas urged international parties, including Mr. Trump, to ensure Israel fully implements the agreement without evasion or delay.
Despite the announcement, the Israeli military, hours later, reiterated to Gaza residents that their troops remained in the territory and the war was still ongoing, underscoring the delicate nature of the truce.
The conflict began in October 2023 with a Hamas-led attack on Israel, resulting in approximately 1,200 deaths, mostly civilians, and the capture of around 250 hostages. Since then, the Israeli military campaign has claimed the lives of over 67,000 Palestinians, combatants and civilians alike, and left Gaza’s infrastructure in ruins.
Following prolonged deadlock, Hamas last week signaled its readiness to release all Israeli hostages in Gaza under the framework of Mr. Trump’s September 29th plan. Israel estimates about 20 living hostages and the remains of 28 deceased individuals are still held. An official close to the negotiations, speaking anonymously, suggested that the Israeli hostages could be released as early as this weekend, possibly Sunday.
Key Aspects of the Agreement:
- Details Unclear: Many specifics of the agreement, including the exact parameters of the hostage-for-prisoner exchange and the precise lines of Israeli troop withdrawal, remain vague. There’s also no certainty that this deal will lead to a permanent end to the war, especially given Hamas’s public rejection of disarming.
- Hope for Gaza: Palestinians in Gaza greeted the news with cautious optimism, hoping it might finally conclude their two-year ordeal. Montaser Bahja, an English teacher displaced in Khan Younis, described feeling “joy for the end of the war and the killing, and sorrow for everything we’ve lost.” Many stayed awake, awaiting news of the truce’s implementation.
- Nobel Speculation: Israeli President Isaac Herzog publicly stated his belief that Mr. Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize, an award the former president has openly coveted. The Nobel Peace Prize winner for 2025 is scheduled to be announced on Friday.
- Peace Plan Contents: Trump’s comprehensive 20-point peace plan includes elements that Hamas has historically opposed, which could still pose significant challenges to a lasting resolution.
- Pressure on Israel: A September 9th Israeli airstrike targeting Hamas representatives in Qatar sparked considerable anger among officials in both the Middle East and Washington. This incident galvanized Mr. Trump and his advisors to exert pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu, compelling him to accept a framework for ending the war.
How the Stalled Talks Led to a Deal:
The turning point in negotiations occurred as the Gaza war entered its third year. President Trump’s announcement of an agreement on the first phase of his peace proposal came after intense, multi-day negotiations in Egypt. Mediating nations, including Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, applied considerable pressure on Israel and Hamas, who do not engage in direct talks. The deal materialized unexpectedly following numerous false starts amid a worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
A critical shift occurred in early September when Israel bombed a residential area in Doha, Qatar, where Hamas representatives were discussing peace proposals. Although no negotiators were killed, the strike was seen as a major provocation, initially jeopardizing all prospects for a ceasefire. Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, accused Israel of attempting to “sabotage every attempt to create opportunities for peace.”
The incident placed Mr. Trump, whose country is an ally of Qatar and maintains a military base there, in a difficult position. He criticized the unilateral bombing, stating it “does not advance Israel or America’s goals.” Ultimately, the frustration felt by Mr. Trump and his team regarding the strike led them to pressure Prime Minister Netanyahu to support a peace framework.
On September 23rd, at the UN General Assembly, Mr. Trump and his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, held a meeting with senior officials from Arab and Muslim-majority countries to outline the peace plan. This followed a UN conference where several Western nations recognized Palestinian statehood, highlighting Israel’s increasing isolation on the world stage. Unable to defy his strongest ally, Mr. Trump, Mr. Netanyahu joined the White House meeting.
On September 29th, with Mr. Netanyahu present, President Trump unveiled his 20-point plan for ending the war, releasing hostages, and establishing governance in postwar Gaza. During this visit, Mr. Netanyahu, under Mr. Trump’s watchful eye, apologized to the Qatari prime minister for the Israeli strike.
Subsequently, Mr. Trump intensified pressure on Hamas. He warned the group that failure to agree to a deal by Sunday evening would result in more casualties. Hamas responded positively, agreeing to release all hostages but seeking negotiations on specific elements of the plan. Mr. Trump then declared his belief that Hamas was “ready for a lasting peace” and urged Israel to halt its bombing campaign.
By Saturday, Mr. Netanyahu committed to cooperating with the White House to end the war. By Monday, mediators gathered in Egypt to finalize the initial phase: the exchange of prisoners for hostages and an Israeli troop pullback. “Everyone wants it to happen,” Mr. Trump remarked, “Even Hamas.” High-profile negotiators, including Mr. Witkoff and Jared Kushner, joined the talks.
In a celebratory interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity, Mr. Trump hailed the deal but acknowledged its potential sticking points, noting, “The whole world came together around this deal.”
Trump’s 20-Point Gaza Peace Plan: A Closer Look:
President Trump announced on Wednesday that Israel and Hamas had agreed to the initial phases of his 20-point peace plan. This comprehensive proposal aims to end the war in Gaza, secure the release of all remaining hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, facilitate an Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza, and ensure a significant influx of aid to the territory facing a severe humanitarian crisis.
However, certain aspects of Trump’s vision for the enclave have historically been resisted by Hamas and could prove to be significant obstacles. The plan explicitly requires Hamas to disarm and relinquish any role in Gaza’s governance—conditions long demanded by Israel but consistently rejected by Hamas.
Under the proposal, Hamas, which has controlled Gaza since 2007, would be replaced by a “technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee” overseen by a “Board of Peace,” chaired by Mr. Trump himself, with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair in a leadership role. The White House envisions Gaza becoming a “de-radicalized terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbors” and being “redeveloped for the benefit of the people of Gaza.”
The Board would establish a framework for Gaza’s reconstruction, including funding, while the Palestinian Authority undergoes a “reform program” to enable it to safely and effectively resume control of Gaza. The Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, has faced accusations of corruption. The goal is to create “modern and efficient governance that serves the people of Gaza and is conducive to attracting investment,” including a special economic zone with favorable tariff and access rates.
Crucially, the peace proposal guarantees that no one will be forced to leave Gaza, with residents free to leave and return voluntarily. This addresses previous controversial suggestions by Mr. Trump about relocating Gazans, a notion he has since abandoned.
Regional Middle Eastern partners are tasked with ensuring Hamas’s compliance, while the United States will collaborate with Arab and international partners to deploy a temporary “International Stabilization Force” in Gaza. This force would train and support vetted Palestinian police forces and work with Israel and Egypt to secure border areas.
A critical component is Israel’s commitment not to occupy or annex Gaza, agreeing to a withdrawal based on “standards, milestones and time frames linked to demilitarization that will be agreed upon.” This directly counters calls for annexation from some far-right members of Israel’s government.
The United States also plans to initiate dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to define a political path towards peaceful and prosperous coexistence. However, the proposal does not explicitly guarantee a Palestinian state, merely stating that as Gaza’s redevelopment and Palestinian Authority reforms progress, “the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognize as the aspiration of the Palestinian people.”
What We Know About the Remaining Hostages in Gaza:
The release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas has been a cornerstone of President Trump’s efforts to achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The conflict began two years ago with Hamas and other militant groups taking approximately 250 people captive, including some whose bodies were also taken.
How many hostages are in Gaza?
Israel reports that roughly 20 living hostages, along with the remains of about 25 deceased individuals, are still held in Gaza. While Mr. Trump’s recent ceasefire proposal called for the release of all hostages within 72 hours of Israel’s acceptance, the current timing remains uncertain, despite Israel having agreed to the plan nine days prior.
Videos released by Hamas have depicted captives appearing severely emaciated and frail, causing deep distress in Israel and raising urgent questions about their continued survival. Hamas officials indicated last month that retrieving the bodies of the deceased captives, which would involve exhumation, would be a time-consuming process.
What happened to the other hostages?
Many of those abducted on October 7th were released during two previous ceasefires in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails. Additionally, at least eight hostages were rescued through Israeli military operations. However, over three dozen hostages have tragically died in captivity, according to a comprehensive investigation by The New York Times.
The investigation revealed that seven hostages were executed by their captors as Israeli forces approached, and four others perished in Israeli airstrikes, based on Israeli official reports and military investigations. Furthermore, three hostages were mistakenly killed by Israeli soldiers, who misidentified them as Palestinian militants; one was killed in a crossfire. The precise circumstances surrounding the deaths of the other captives are still unknown.
What does Hamas get in return?
Under President Trump’s plan, once the Israeli hostages are freed, Israel is committed to releasing “250 life sentence prisoners plus 1,700 Gazans who were detained after Oct. 7, 2023.” The plan also specifies that for every Israeli hostage whose remains are returned, Israel will release the remains of 15 deceased Gazans. The exact timeline for these Palestinian prisoner releases remains unspecified.
Trump Considers Middle East Trip Amid Diplomatic Triumph:
President Trump stands on the cusp of a major diplomatic achievement in his second term: a cessation of the brutal conflict between Israel and Hamas. On Wednesday evening, he expressed a strong desire to travel to the Middle East this weekend to oversee the ceasefire and welcome home hostages who have endured two long years in captivity.
For Mr. Trump, success in this endeavor represents the ultimate validation of his self-proclaimed role as a dealmaker and peacemaker, potentially paving the way for the Nobel Peace Prize he so openly covets. Coincidentally, the announcement of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner is scheduled just hours before his possible departure for a victory lap in Egypt and Israel.
However, the path forward is fraught with peril. The “peace” deal announced by Mr. Trump on Truth Social may ultimately prove to be another temporary pause in a conflict that has deep historical roots, predating Israel’s founding in 1948. Yet, if Mr. Trump can maintain this fragile agreement, securing the release of the remaining 20 living hostages this weekend and, with it, Hamas’s primary negotiating leverage, it would mark an extraordinary stride towards a peace plan that both he and his predecessor, Joseph R. Biden Jr., have relentlessly pursued.
Should Mr. Trump succeed in compelling Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to withdraw troops from Gaza City and abandon his ambition to control the devastated enclave, and if he can halt the violence that has claimed 1,200 Israeli lives and over 60,000 Palestinian lives, he will have achieved what many before him could not: outmaneuvering a challenging and increasingly isolated ally.
Aaron David Miller, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, often a critic of Mr. Trump’s Middle East policies, observed, “This cease-fire and hostage release, if it happens, only came to fruition because of Trump’s willingness to pressure Prime Minister Netanyahu. No president, Republican or Democrat, has ever come down harder on an Israeli prime minister on issues so critically important to his politics or his country’s security interests.”
Mr. Trump’s first term saw the diplomatic triumph of the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, followed by Sudan and Morocco. The fear that Saudi Arabia might also join these accords contributed to Hamas’s decision to launch the devastating October 7, 2023, attack. However, ending the current war – which has decimated Hamas’s leadership, destroyed 90 percent of Gaza’s homes, and severely damaged Israel’s global standing – represents an even greater accomplishment.
Israel’s intense response to the October 7th attack, the worst against Jews since the Holocaust, left the nation in a paradoxical position: more powerful yet more isolated. Recent weeks saw Israel’s military campaign in Gaza drive many of its closest allies to advocate for a Palestinian state, despite a lack of concrete plans for its location or governance. Globally, Israel’s razing of Gaza, its willingness to inflict heavy Palestinian casualties to target Hamas leaders, and rhetoric about displacing Palestinians caused immense moral and political damage that may take generations to mend.
This shift could profoundly alter regional politics. Despite the ongoing war and 48 remaining hostages (28 believed dead), Mr. Netanyahu had enjoyed a period of political strength, having vowed to eliminate Hamas’s leadership. He oversaw operations against Hezbollah leaders, contributed to the collapse of the Assad government in Syria, and, in a 12-day war, targeted Iranian nuclear scientists and military leaders, culminating in an American attack on Iran’s major nuclear sites.
However, Mr. Netanyahu overstepped, creating an opportunity for Mr. Trump and his aides to exert control. The scale of destruction in Gaza drew international condemnation. His decision to bomb Hamas negotiators in Qatar shocked the Trump White House. Mr. Trump, unaccustomed to apologizing himself, compelled Mr. Netanyahu to do so to Qatar’s leadership, even publicizing images of the call. Through this, he maneuvered Mr. Netanyahu into agreeing to a 20-step plan, a plan the Israeli leader gambled Hamas would reject.
To many’s surprise, Hamas accepted the initial steps, having few alternatives. The immense human and physical toll of the war had eroded Hamas’s support among surviving Gazans, and Arab states and Turkey had belatedly pressed them to concede.
Mr. Trump is now poised to declare an end to this chapter, and hopefully, he will be right. If the peace plan progresses, Mr. Trump could lay a legitimate claim to a Nobel Peace Prize, joining past American presidents like Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Barack Obama, and Jimmy Carter (awarded decades post-presidency), potentially with less fanfare than his predecessors.
However, it is far from certain that the conflict is truly over. Both Mr. Trump’s and Mr. Netanyahu’s statements referenced only the initial phase: the hostage-for-prisoner swaps and an Israeli troop withdrawal to an unspecified line. Reaching the next stage, which would require Hamas to disarm and relinquish control of Gaza, may prove even more challenging than bringing the hostages home. Hamas could still reject these steps, as could Mr. Netanyahu, who maintains that the mission is incomplete until every Hamas combatant from the October 7th attacks is apprehended. Any such refusal could unravel the fragile ceasefire.
The process of establishing a “technocratic” interim leadership in Gaza and ensuring its leadership is free of Hamas sympathies remains unclear. Israel is unlikely to withdraw as long as any remnants of Hamas persist. The precise role of the Palestinian Authority also remains undefined. The region’s history suggests that peace accords are often temporary, and conflicts tend to resurface, leaving the timing and intensity of future eruptions uncertain.