In a powerful address, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to sharply condemn ‘the politics of grievance.’ This crucial speech, delivered on Tuesday, seeks to bolster his declining approval ratings by issuing a stark warning against the rise of intolerance. His message is a direct challenge to Reform UK, the anti-immigration party that has seen a dramatic surge in popularity across the country.
With critical Scottish, Welsh, and municipal elections looming just eight months away, Starmer will emphasize to his loyal Labour Party supporters that British voters face a monumental decision. He describes the choice between Labour and Reform as a ‘fork in the road’ that will ultimately shape the very fabric of the nation’s democracy.
“We can choose decency. Or we can choose division. Renewal or decline,” he is expected to declare, according to advance excerpts from his office. “It is a test. A fight for the soul of our country, every bit as big as rebuilding Britain after the war.”
These words highlight the significant political threat posed by Nigel Farage, Reform’s charismatic leader. Farage’s stance on immigration and economic policy strongly mirrors that of former U.S. President Donald Trump. Previously, Farage dismissed mass deportations as a ‘political impossibility’ in Britain. However, he has since reversed course, unveiling a controversial plan to deport hundreds of thousands of individuals, including some who had already been granted a long-term right to reside in Britain.
While Prime Minister Starmer isn’t constitutionally required to call a general election until 2029, current opinion polls suggest a challenging landscape. Multiple surveys indicate that Reform, a burgeoning party with only five Members of Parliament, would convincingly defeat Labour if an election were held today.
In his highly anticipated speech, Starmer frames this choice as a crucial ‘test’ for the electorate—a test that even some of his closest allies privately fear he might struggle to pass.
The challenges to Starmer’s leadership extend beyond Farage. Just last week, there was intense speculation about a potential leadership challenge from Andy Burnham, the mayor of Manchester and a notably charismatic figure within the Labour Party. The three-day party conference in Liverpool brought to light deep-seated frustrations among Starmer’s supporters. Many questioned his ability to articulate a clear political vision and effectively lead the party to a second general election victory.
Internal divisions also plague Labour, particularly concerning Israel’s ongoing conflict in Gaza. Several Members of Parliament have publicly criticized Starmer for his perceived delay in formally recognizing a Palestinian state and for not adopting a tougher stance against the Israeli government to end the violence in the embattled enclave.
After returning to power last year following 14 years in opposition, Labour Party members have highlighted their achievements over the past 15 months. These include reductions in medical waiting lists, significant investments in education, new rights for renters and workers, and initial steps toward rekindling cooperation with the European Union.
However, party members also acknowledge the disappointment felt by voters who believe the government has fallen short of its sweeping electoral promises. Discussions both within the conference hall and on its fringes revealed concerns among Labour activists about the slow pace of change, a stagnant economy, and several missteps. These included poorly executed attempts to tighten welfare claims and cut home heating subsidies.
These criticisms formed the core of Andy Burnham’s recent commentary on Starmer’s leadership, notably articulated in a series of interviews and remarks leading up to the party conference.
Despite his candid remarks, which drew a backlash from some Labour lawmakers, Burnham downplayed his leadership ambitions during speeches on the conference sidelines. He underscored the considerable practical hurdles he would face if he sought to replace Starmer as party leader and prime minister. As an elected regional mayor, he would first need to resign and then successfully contest a parliamentary seat, with no guarantee of a suitable vacancy.
“I can’t launch a leadership campaign. I’m not in Parliament. So that is the bottom line,” he stated during a packed bar event, where he emphasized his satisfaction with his current role.
Nevertheless, in an hour-long question-and-answer session, Burnham outlined a more ambitious agenda than Starmer’s. He advocated for reforms to the country’s stringent government debt rules to allow for greater public investment and expressed his hope that Britain would rejoin the European Union within his lifetime. (Starmer, while opposing Brexit, has carefully avoided reigniting that debate).
Starmer’s allies swiftly moved to defend him against Burnham’s implicit challenge. In a spirited speech on Monday, Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, subtly criticized the mayor’s calls for increased spending, though without naming him directly.
“I do know that there are still those who peddle the idea that we could just abandon economic responsibility and cast off any constraints on spending,” she asserted. “They are wrong — dangerously so.”
Against a challenging economic backdrop, many analysts anticipate that the government’s next major test will arrive in November when Ms. Reeves is scheduled to present a budget widely expected to include tax increases.
Despite Labour’s concerning poll numbers, the overall mood wasn’t entirely disheartened. A combination of Mr. Burnham’s intervention, the escalating threat from Reform, and the recent shock of a large far-right rally in London appeared to galvanize many within the party. Several government ministers delivered impassioned speeches on Sunday night to a crowded bar.
“We are the disinfectant that is going to clean up the pollution of the far right in our politics,” declared Steve Reed, the housing secretary. He added that Labour must “show the people of this country that we are on their side, that we are making the difference that will transform their lives.”
Amid the lively atmosphere, Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, struggled to make her voice heard as she urged party members that “divided parties don’t win elections and we won’t beat Reform if we are arguing among ourselves.”
She also implored them to be more active in their campaigning. “We have got to be out there telling the positive story of what this Labour government is delivering,” she emphasized. “If we don’t make that case, nobody else will.”