Japan’s Governing Party Gears Up for a Crucial Vote
Japan’s ruling party is set to convene this Saturday for a momentous election, aiming to reinvigorate its flagging popularity. This critical vote could mark a historical turning point, potentially paving the way for the country’s first female prime minister or introducing its youngest leader in 140 years.
The Liberal Democratic Party (L.D.P.) is tasked with selecting a successor to Shigeru Ishiba, Japan’s prime minister, who announced his intention to resign last month after serving less than a year in office. The L.D.P., a dominant force in Japanese politics for all but five of the past seven decades, experienced significant setbacks in July’s parliamentary elections, leading to its unusual status as a minority in both houses of the Diet, Japan’s Parliament.
Five candidates are currently contending for the L.D.P.’s highest position. The victorious candidate is anticipated to be named prime minister in mid-October, following an extraordinary session of Parliament.
The incoming leader will confront a formidable array of challenges, including a strained relationship with the United States, escalating food prices, stagnant wages, and a growing public backlash against immigration. Furthermore, the L.D.P. itself faces scrutiny over its public image and influence, grappling with recent scandals and the notable rise of right-wing politicians.
As political analyst and former L.D.P. official Shigenobu Tamura emphasized, ‘The L.D.P. needs to rejuvenate its image. Society wants a change now.’
Understanding the Candidates and Key Issues
Who Are the Contenders?
The five individuals vying for the L.D.P. leadership bring diverse backgrounds to the table. Among them is Shinjiro Koizumi, the 44-year-old agricultural minister and son of a highly popular former prime minister. Polling suggests Mr. Koizumi is the front-runner, and if successful, he would become the youngest leader since Hirobumi Ito, Japan’s inaugural prime minister, who also assumed power at age 44 in 1885.
Another strong contender in the polls is Sanae Takaichi, a staunch conservative and close ally of Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister who was tragically assassinated in 2022. Should Ms. Takaichi win, she would become Japan’s first female prime minister—a significant milestone in a nation where women have historically been severely underrepresented in political roles.
Completing the field are Takayuki Kobayashi, a member of the lower house of Parliament; Yoshimasa Hayashi, the chief cabinet secretary, known for his close ties to Mr. Ishiba; and Toshimitsu Motegi, a seasoned politician who previously served as both economy and foreign affairs minister.
What Major Issues Are at Stake?
Immigration has emerged as a central concern, fueled by a surge of anti-foreigner sentiment across Japan amid an increase in international workers and tourists. The government is under mounting pressure to impose new restrictions on immigrant numbers and limit real estate purchases by foreign nationals.
Mr. Motegi recently asserted that Japan should aim for “zero illegal foreigners,” estimating their current number at approximately 78,000. Meanwhile, Ms. Takaichi has publicly criticized foreigners, attributing to them incidents such as kicking Nara Prefecture’s beloved deer and performing pull-ups on sacred shrine gates.
Japan’s recent trade agreement with the United States has also become a significant campaign topic. Under the deal, Japan committed to making $550 billion in investment capital available for President Trump’s discretion, in exchange for reduced tariffs. Ms. Takaichi stands out as the sole candidate who has expressed willingness to renegotiate this agreement, stating that if any unfair practices surface, “We must speak out firmly.”
The next prime minister will inherit an L.D.P. grappling with a deepening political crisis. The party has faced resounding defeats over the past year, as voters expressed dissatisfaction with its handling of the economy, immigration, relations with the United States, a political finance scandal, and an ongoing rice shortage. This turbulent period has seen right-wing leaders make substantial inroads, particularly among younger voters, with anti-establishment parties prioritizing issues like wages, immigration, and challenging an unresponsive political elite.
In response to calls for change, several candidates have pledged to enhance women’s political representation. Notably, only two women currently serve in Mr. Ishiba’s 20-person cabinet. Mr. Koizumi has committed to an “all-out effort” to achieve 30 percent female representation in the Diet within a decade. Mr. Motegi has promised that women would comprise 30 percent of his own cabinet, while Ms. Takaichi has vowed to achieve a gender balance in her cabinet akin to Nordic countries, often approaching 50 percent representation.
What’s Next for Japan’s Leadership?
The outcome of Saturday’s election will be determined by a combination of votes from both rank-and-file party members and lawmakers. Should no candidate secure a majority in the initial round, the top two contenders will proceed to a runoff election later that afternoon.
Typically, the election winner is appointed prime minister within a few days. However, this time, the process might be prolonged. Without a clear majority, the L.D.P. will need to engage with opposition leaders to garner support for its newly chosen leader.
Following the selection, the real work begins. Japan is still finalizing the intricate details of its trade agreement with the United States. Furthermore, President Trump is scheduled to travel to Asia for summit meetings at the end of the month, with speculation about a potential visit to Japan.
Ultimately, the Japanese public will be closely watching for tangible signs that the L.D.P.’s new leader is genuinely responsive to their pressing concerns.
As analyst Mr. Tamura concluded, ‘The L.D.P. needs to reform the party. Otherwise, there will be no path to rebirth for them.’
Kiuko Notoya contributed reporting.