Japan is on the verge of a potentially groundbreaking leadership change. A crucial vote this Saturday, October 4, 2025, will determine the new head of the nation’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and the outcome could see Japan electing its first woman Prime Minister or its youngest leader in modern history.
The race is tightening between two prominent figures: conservative nationalist Sanae Takaichi, 64, and her more moderate counterpart, Shinjiro Koizumi, 44. Adding to the intrigue, Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, also 64, is also considered a strong contender in opinion polls.
These three are among five individuals vying to succeed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is stepping down following a series of significant electoral setbacks for the party.
While the LDP holds the largest representation in parliament, making its leader the presumptive Prime Minister, this path isn’t guaranteed. Under Ishiba’s leadership, the party, which has dominated Japanese politics for most of the post-war era, lost its majorities in both parliamentary houses.
A Ruling Party at a Crossroads
Sanae Takaichi advocates for an ambitious economic platform, proposing aggressive government spending to invigorate the economy. However, this approach could alarm investors given Japan’s substantial national debt. She has also hinted at a potential re-evaluation of a trade agreement with former U.S. President Donald Trump, which aimed to reduce his tariffs in exchange for Japanese investment.
In contrast, Farm Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, along with other candidates, suggests tax cuts to alleviate the burden of rising living costs for households. Their broader economic strategies align more closely with Ishiba’s emphasis on fiscal restraint.
The eventual winner of Saturday’s vote will inherit a party facing significant challenges and an economy struggling with stagnation.
Growing discontent with the LDP has led many voters, particularly younger, disillusioned individuals, to turn towards opposition groups, including a rising far-right party with an anti-immigrant stance.
Tina Burrett, a political science professor at Tokyo’s Sophia University, highlights the distinct paths offered by the front-runners. “Koizumi and Takaichi present two quite different visions for the party’s renewal,” she noted. Koizumi is perceived as a consensus-builder capable of bridging divides with other parties, while Takaichi is seen as someone who could disrupt the traditionally “rather grey world of politicians” in Japan.
If Shinjiro Koizumi secures the premiership, he would be only slightly older than Hirobumi Ito was when he became Japan’s inaugural Prime Minister in 1885, under the pre-war constitution.
The Battle Between Parliamentarians and Party Members
According to a recent Asahi newspaper report, Koizumi currently holds a lead among the 295 LDP lawmakers who will cast their votes for the party leader, followed by Hayashi and Takaichi. However, a Nippon Television survey reveals that Takaichi is outperforming both in popularity among the rank-and-file party members, who hold an equal number of votes in the initial round of Saturday’s election.
Should the election proceed to a second round, as appears likely, the dynamics could shift significantly, as the voting power of grassroots LDP members would be reduced to 47.
Ms. Takaichi, a close associate of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, champions the most expansionist economic agenda among the LDP hopefuls. Her bold promise includes doubling Japan’s economic size within a decade through substantial state investments in emerging technologies, infrastructure development, food production, and other critical areas of economic security.
Regarding trade, she has expressed her intention to uphold Ishiba’s agreement with former U.S. President Trump, which involved Japan committing to a $550 billion investment in the U.S. in exchange for reduced tariffs on Japanese automobiles and other goods. Nevertheless, she also raised the possibility of renegotiating the deal if it proves to be disadvantageous to Japan.
Both Cabinet ministers Hayashi and Koizumi have publicly supported and defended the existing trade agreement.
For the incoming premier, one of the immediate high-profile duties will be hosting Donald Trump in Tokyo towards the end of October.
On the domestic front, the new leader faces the formidable challenge of revitalizing a party that many voters increasingly perceive as out of touch with their concerns, observes James Brown, a politics professor at Temple University in Tokyo.
“There’s every chance that we’ll be back discussing another leadership election for the country relatively soon,” Professor Brown cautioned, underscoring the instability.