Israeli forces have recently pulled back to a designated boundary within the Gaza Strip, a move that effectively places the majority of the territory back under Israeli control. This strategic decision appears to be a calculated step by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to appease his far-right coalition partners for the time being.
New fortifications and demarcations are being erected along this ‘yellow line’, aiming to clearly delineate the territory. However, these developments could also serve to obscure the differing expectations held by Netanyahu’s allies in both Washington and within Israel itself.
The success of Netanyahu’s political balancing act hinges on the upcoming stages of negotiation. The ‘yellow line’ marks a temporary boundary, and any further withdrawal of Israeli troops is contingent upon resolving critical issues. These include the transfer of power within Gaza and the complex process of disarming Hamas, which are key components of the US-brokered peace plan.
Washington is eager to avoid any actions that could jeopardize these delicate negotiations. US Vice-President JD Vance recently visited Israel to urge Netanyahu to advance the peace talks. Simultaneously, Trump’s negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, held meetings with the Israeli Prime Minister.
Reports from Israeli media suggest that Netanyahu is receiving strong advice from his American counterparts to exercise restraint and avoid actions that could compromise the fragile ceasefire. Following an incident where Israel claimed Hamas violated the ceasefire by killing two soldiers, Netanyahu’s far-right National Security Minister advocated for a return to military action, a sentiment that contrasts with the diplomatic efforts underway.
Instead of escalating, Israel conducted a brief but intense series of airstrikes before reinstating the truce. The Israeli military was careful to highlight that its forces were attacked within the ‘yellow line’ zone, aiming to assure Washington that Israel was adhering to the agreement’s terms.
Netanyahu has consistently stated that the conflict will persist until Hamas is dismantled, with the disarmament and complete demilitarization of Gaza being paramount conditions.
However, Israeli commentators are increasingly suggesting that the ultimate decisions regarding Israel’s military operations in Gaza are now being heavily influenced by Washington.
The establishment of the ‘yellow line’ and the challenging tasks ahead in the second stage of the deal shed light on why Netanyahu’s coalition partners have opted to wait and see, rather than follow through on their threat to bring down his government.
Many hardline settlers and ministers harbor a hope that the subsequent phases of this process will prove unresolvable, allowing the ‘yellow line’ to solidify as a de facto border and paving the way for new settlements in Gaza. Some extremists even desire the annexation of the entire Gaza Strip.
Conversely, the majority of Israelis are longing for an end to the war and the safe return of all hostages and soldiers.
Netanyahu is known for his political acumen, preferring to keep his options open for as long as possible. This multi-stage deal, with its built-in caveats, fits this approach. By agreeing to the initial withdrawal, which placed Israel in control of over half of Gaza, and accepting a ceasefire to secure the return of hostages, Netanyahu has positioned himself to navigate future developments.
The challenge now lies in aligning the objectives of his US allies with the demands of his domestic coalition. Netanyahu has repeatedly emphasized that any violations of the deal by Hamas, particularly regarding disarmament, would justify a return to military action.
“If this is achieved the easy way, so much the better,” he stated earlier this month. “If not, it will be achieved the hard way.”
Donald Trump has echoed similar sentiments. However, Washington’s current tolerance for delays and violations in implementing the deal on the ground suggests that Netanyahu may have less political flexibility than he would prefer.