Israel has recently established a ‘yellow line’ in Gaza, marking a significant stage in its military withdrawal. This boundary, established earlier this month, signifies Israel’s continued control over approximately 53% of the Gaza Strip. This development is particularly welcomed by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners, with some Israeli media outlets referring to it as the “new border” in Gaza.
The fortifications and demarcations currently being constructed along this line serve a dual purpose: to clearly delineate the territory and, perhaps more subtly, to manage the diverging expectations of Israel’s allies in Washington and its domestic political base. The duration Netanyahu can sustain this balancing act hinges on the progression of ongoing negotiations.
While the ‘yellow line’ represents a temporary marker, further Israeli troop withdrawal is contingent upon resolving critical issues in the second phase of the peace deal. These crucial steps include the transfer of power within Gaza and the process for disarming Hamas.
Washington is keen to ensure that these delicate negotiations are not jeopardized. US Vice-President JD Vance recently visited Israel to urge Netanyahu to advance peace talks, while Trump’s negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, also met with the Israeli Prime Minister.
Reports suggest that Netanyahu is facing considerable pressure from his American counterparts to “show restraint” and avoid actions that could jeopardize the ceasefire. This was evident when Israel responded to a claimed Hamas ceasefire violation, which resulted in the deaths of two soldiers. While Netanyahu’s National Security Minister advocated for immediate military action, Israel opted for a series of airstrikes before re-establishing the truce, carefully emphasizing that its troops had been attacked within the ‘yellow line’ to signal compliance to Washington.
Netanyahu has consistently stated that the conflict will persist until Hamas is dismantled, with the disarmament and full demilitarization of Gaza being key demands. However, many Israeli analysts believe that ultimate decisions regarding military operations in Gaza are now heavily influenced by Washington.
The ‘yellow line’ and the complex challenges of the second stage of the peace deal offer insight into why Netanyahu’s coalition partners have so far refrained from jeopardizing his government. For many hardline settlers and ministers, the hope is that the inability to resolve the second stage will solidify the ‘yellow line’ as a de facto border, paving the way for new settlements in Gaza. Some hardliners even advocate for the annexation of the entire Gaza Strip.
The majority of Israelis, however, desire an end to the conflict and the safe return of all hostages and soldiers.
Netanyahu, a seasoned politician known for keeping his options open, has strategically phased the deal with built-in caveats. By agreeing to the initial withdrawal and ceasefire, he aimed to secure the return of hostages while maintaining control over more than half of Gaza. Moving forward, aligning the objectives of his US and domestic allies will become increasingly challenging. Netanyahu has repeatedly stressed that any violations of the deal by Hamas, including failure to disarm, would permit Israel to resume military action.