India’s crude oil imports from Russia saw a strong revival in the first half of October. This reversed a three-month downward trend observed from July to September, as Indian refineries ramped up production to meet the robust demand of the festive season.
Previously, imports from Russia had dropped from over 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in June to 1.6 million bpd by September. However, early October tanker-tracking data indicates a clear rebound: shipments of Urals and other Russian crude grades to India have accelerated, primarily due to renewed discounts and greater shipping flexibility in the face of softer demand in Western markets.
Preliminary figures from global trade analytics firm Kpler show October imports tracking at approximately 1.8 million bpd, representing an increase of around 250,000 bpd from the previous month. It’s important to note that this data covers the period prior to U.S. President Donald Trump’s October 15 statement, where he claimed Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to cease Russian crude imports. The Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal, stated he was unaware of any such phone conversation.
‘Pressure Tactics’
Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst (Refining & Modelling) at Kpler, views Trump’s statement as likely strategic pressure tactics related to ongoing trade negotiations, rather than an indication of an immediate policy shift by India. He emphasized that “Russian barrels remain deeply embedded in India’s energy system for economic, contractual, and strategic reasons.”
Indian refiners have also confirmed that they have not received any directives from the government to halt Russian oil imports.
India began procuring discounted Russian oil following Western sanctions against Moscow and the subsequent avoidance of its supplies after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This shift dramatically increased Russia’s share in India’s total oil imports, growing from a mere 1.7% in 2019-20 to 40% in 2023-24, establishing Russia as India’s leading oil supplier.
This status continued into the first half of October. Iraq stood as India’s second-largest crude oil supplier at approximately 1.01 million bpd, followed by Saudi Arabia at 830,000 bpd. The United States has surpassed the UAE, becoming India’s fourth-largest supplier with 647,000 bpd, while the UAE supplied 394,000 bpd, according to Kpler’s data.
Vital for India
Mr. Ritolia reiterated that Russian crude is fundamentally crucial for India. It accounts for about 34% of the country’s total imports and offers attractive discounts that are simply too substantial for refiners to disregard.
“The recent discussion about a dip in imports during July-September was not primarily due to tariff concerns,” he clarified. “Instead, it was largely driven by seasonal factors, specifically increased maintenance work at public sector undertaking (PSU) refineries like MRPL, CPCL, and BORL.”
He explained that most contracts for deliveries up to early September were finalized 6 to 10 weeks in advance, meaning deals were largely locked in before July 31. Therefore, the import dips in July-September were mainly a result of refineries processing less crude due to scheduled maintenance.
Even with narrower discounts compared to 2023, Russian oil remains one of the most cost-effective feedstock options for Indian refiners. This is attributed to advantageous landed discounts and the high Gross Product Worth (GPW) margins yielded by grades such as Urals. Discounts currently average between $3.5 to $5 per barrel, an increase from the $1.5 to $2 seen in July/August.
While replacing Russian crude is technically feasible, with alternative supplies available from the Middle East, Latin America, and the U.S. (resembling India’s crude procurement before 2022), and Indian refineries capable of processing diverse crude grades, the question remains whether New Delhi is prepared to make such a shift. As Ritolia stated, “The reality is that cutting Russian imports would be difficult, costly, and risky.”
Such a substitution would necessitate rapidly scaling up imports from multiple suppliers, which would inevitably lead to higher costs due to increased freight charges and less favorable discounts. Should profit margins shrink or retail prices rise, this could trigger inflation, public discontent, and reduced profitability for refineries.
Ritolia believes refiners will not voluntarily forgo these cost advantages unless explicitly instructed by the government, similar to past directives concerning Iranian oil. Although there’s a growing push for diversification, Russian crude contracts are typically signed several weeks in advance, making a rapid transition challenging. Practically, Indian refiners are gradually expanding their sourcing options, not to immediately replace Russia, but to bolster long-term energy security, supply continuity, and operational flexibility.
India has consistently maintained an independent foreign and energy policy, carefully balancing its economic interests with diplomatic relations. A sudden departure from Russian crude would undermine its established energy security strategy and is unlikely unless formal sanctions—akin to those imposed on Iran or Venezuela—are enacted.
“At this stage,” he concluded, “it’s improbable that India will implement structural cuts purely to satisfy U.S. and EU political pressure. If Washington increases pressure, Indian refiners might consider a symbolic reduction—perhaps 100,000-200,000 bpd—to demonstrate diversification and placate Western partners. However, these cuts would likely be symbolic rather than truly transformative.”
While importing higher volumes from the U.S. could be an option to appease a figure like Trump, the potential increase is limited to around 400,000-500,000 bpd. This cap exists because U.S. crude grades present logistical hurdles, economic drawbacks, and compatibility issues with existing Indian refining systems.
Kpler data indicates that Indian imports of U.S. crude have averaged 310,000 bpd so far in 2025, a notable rise from 199,000 bpd in 2024, with an expected yearly high of approximately 500,000 bpd in October.