The Indian Rupee concluded Monday’s trading session (September 29, 2025) at a record low of 88.79 against the U.S. dollar, shedding 7 paise. This downturn was largely fueled by sustained foreign capital outflows and a prevailing atmosphere of risk aversion among investors.
Currency traders note that the rupee’s current proximity to its all-time low reflects ongoing investor anxiety regarding global trade uncertainties and the potential impact of recent U.S. visa fee increases on India’s vital IT services export sector.
Adding to the market’s watchful stance, the impending outcome of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy meeting on October 1st is highly anticipated, expected to significantly sway both the rupee’s trajectory and government bond movements.
On the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 88.69 against the dollar but eventually closed at 88.79, marking its lowest provisional closing level to date, following a 7-paise decline.
Interestingly, the previous Friday saw the rupee recover slightly, closing 4 paise higher at 88.72 against the U.S. dollar after touching an earlier all-time low.
This recent depreciation comes after the rupee first hit a new lifetime low of 88.76 against the American currency on Thursday, September 25.
Anuj Choudhary, a Research Analyst specializing in Currency and Commodities at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, anticipates continued weakness for the rupee. He cites subdued domestic markets, persistently high crude oil prices, and increased dollar demand from importers as key contributing factors. However, he notes that a weaker U.S. dollar or direct intervention from the RBI could offer some support at these lower levels.
Choudhary also highlighted upcoming market influencers, including U.S. core pending home sales data and a speech by President Donald Trump. Crucially, investors will be keenly observing the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision later this week.
The RBI’s MPC has commenced its three-day deliberations. While a status quo on the crucial interest rate is widely expected, some experts are considering the possibility of a 25 basis point cut.
The decision from the six-member rate-setting panel, led by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, is slated for announcement on Wednesday, September 24. This meeting unfolds amidst a complex global landscape, characterized by ongoing geopolitical tensions and new U.S. tariffs, including a 50% levy on Indian shipments.
Concurrently, the dollar index, a measure of the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, recorded a slight dip of 0.19%, trading at 97.96.
In the commodities market, Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, saw a 1.37% decrease, trading at $69.17 per barrel in futures.
Domestically, the equity markets also experienced a downturn; the Sensex closed down 61.52 points at 80,364.94, and the Nifty fell 19.80 points to 24,634.90.
Exchange data from Friday, September 26, reveals that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) significantly offloaded equities worth ₹5,687.58 crore.
In a separate development, the U.S. has declared a 100% tariff on branded or patented drugs imported from October 1st, with an exception for pharmaceutical companies establishing new manufacturing facilities within the U.S.
This exemption specifically applies to projects where construction has already begun, encompassing sites that have broken ground or are currently under active development.
India’s foreign exchange reserves saw a decrease of $396 million, settling at $702.57 billion for the week ending September 19, according to RBI figures.
This follows an increase of $4.698 billion in the overall reserves during the prior reporting week, which had brought the total to $702.966 billion.