On Friday, India and the Taliban government in Afghanistan declared an expansion of their diplomatic relationship. This announcement followed the most significant talks between the two entities in the four years since the Taliban seized control of Kabul, overthrowing the American-backed republic that India had previously supported.
As part of this development, India committed to restoring its embassy in Kabul. While this step represents the highest level of diplomatic engagement in decades, it conspicuously falls short of formally recognizing the Taliban administration.
Adding a layer of intense geopolitical tension and intrigue to the moment, a series of explosions shook Kabul just hours before the scheduled meeting between Amir Khan Muttaqi, the Taliban’s foreign minister, and his Indian counterpart, S. Jaishankar.
Zabihullah Mujahid, the chief spokesman for the Taliban, confirmed these late-night blasts in the Afghan capital, stating only that an investigation was underway and offering no further immediate details.
Speculation quickly mounted on social media, with figures like former Afghan President Hamid Karzai and a high-ranking former American official suggesting the explosions were Pakistani military airstrikes. These strikes were reportedly aimed at militants from the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or Pakistani Taliban.
Pakistan’s government has long accused the Pakistani Taliban, which has been waging an insurgency against Islamabad for almost two decades, of plotting new attacks from havens in Afghanistan, allegedly with support from Indian intelligence. Afghan officials, however, steadfastly deny providing any assistance or sanctuary to the group.
Neither Pakistani nor Taliban authorities offered direct comments on the specific cause of the Kabul explosions. However, in a separate statement on Friday, the Pakistani military announced that it had carried out “a series of retribution operations,” though it did not confirm whether these operations involved strikes within Kabul itself.
During his meeting in New Delhi with Mr. Muttaqi, who survived the Taliban’s initial reign in Afghanistan during the 1990s, Mr. Jaishankar affirmed India’s decision to upgrade its diplomatic presence in Kabul to a full embassy. Notably, unlike its closure during the 1990s, India had maintained a scaled-down mission in Kabul over the last four years.
Furthermore, Mr. Jaishankar outlined India’s commitment to increasing development aid to Afghanistan and boosting the issuance of visas for Afghan citizens, a process that had only recently restarted with limited numbers. A key component of this aid package includes plans to construct shelters for refugees who have been forcibly repatriated to Afghanistan from neighboring Pakistan and Iran.
In his own remarks, Mr. Muttaqi underscored the historical and profound bonds between India and Afghanistan. He expressed optimism that his visit and the new agreement would foster greater trust and economic collaboration, actively inviting Indian investment, particularly in Afghanistan’s promising mining sector.
Reiterating a crucial commitment, Mr. Muttaqi stated, “We will not allow any group to threaten others from the Afghan soil, or to use Afghan soil against others.”
The high-stakes meeting was overshadowed by escalating regional tensions, which are currently challenging long-standing allegiances and reshaping diplomatic landscapes.
Earlier this year, nuclear-armed India and Pakistan engaged in a brief military conflict. Simultaneously, Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban, a group it historically supported with safe havens during their two-decade insurgency in Afghanistan, has dramatically worsened since the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul, leading to violent border clashes.
The Pakistani government is facing significant internal pressure following a surge in deadly attacks across the nation, including a recent incident this week that claimed the lives of over a dozen soldiers.
During a cabinet meeting on Thursday, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reiterated accusations that individuals in Afghanistan were facilitating militants crossing into Pakistan. Later that day, Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif informed parliament that a delegation would soon travel to Kabul to demand that Afghan authorities dismantle alleged militant safe havens used to launch attacks against Pakistan.
Should Pakistan indeed be behind the Kabul strikes, their timing would serve as a powerful message to the Taliban leadership, indicating that any burgeoning relationship with India would be met with stern disapproval.
In contrast, India has shown a more conciliatory stance towards the Taliban government recently. However, relations were historically strained during the Taliban’s previous rule in the 1990s and their subsequent two-decade insurgency against the Afghan government and its Western allies. Two particularly sensitive incidents for India included the accusation that the Taliban harbored hijackers of an Indian plane in 1999, which landed in southern Afghanistan, and a deadly terrorist attack on India’s diplomatic mission in Kabul in 2008, which resulted in dozens of deaths, including four Indian officials.
Neither the Indian nor the Afghan foreign ministers directly addressed these two historical incidents in their public statements.
Mr. Muttaqi reflected on the past, noting, “During the 20-year struggle against the U.S. occupation, there were many ups and downs. But not once did we give a statement against India. Instead, we always sought good relations with India.”
By Mujib Mashal
Reporting from New Delhi. Salman Masood contributed reporting from Islamabad, Pakistan.