On October 28, Hurricane Melissa unleashed its fury on Jamaica, battering the island with winds of an astonishing 296 kmph. This wasn’t just another powerful storm; Melissa was a true ‘beast,’ an anomaly even among the record-breaking number of monstrous hurricanes that have plagued a superheated Atlantic Ocean over the past decade.
What astounded scientists was Melissa’s uncanny ability to defy the odds. It managed to overcome at least three distinct meteorological phenomena that would typically diminish a major hurricane’s strength, yet it continued to gain power right up until landfall. Researchers watched in disbelief as this storm simply refused to weaken.
While rapid intensification – a gain of 56 kmph in wind speed within 24 hours – is becoming more common, Melissa took this phenomenon to an extreme new level. It achieved ‘extreme rapid intensification,’ surging by at least 92 kmph in a single day. In a remarkable display of power, Melissa turbocharged by approximately 112 kmph within a 24-hour span last week, and then underwent an unusual second burst of rapid intensification, catapulting its winds to a staggering 280 kmph.
Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach aptly described it: ‘It’s been a remarkable, just a beast of a storm.’
Upon making landfall, Melissa cemented its place in history by tying records for Atlantic hurricane strength, both in its ferocious wind speed and crucial barometric pressure – a vital metric for meteorologists. This pressure reading matched that of the devastating 1935 Labor Day storm in Florida, while its 296 kmph winds equaled the infamous 1935 storm and 2019’s Hurricane Dorian. Though Hurricane Allen in 1980 reached 304 kmph, it did not do so at landfall.
Normally, when major hurricanes reach such extreme intensities, the powerful, warm winds at their core necessitate an ‘eyewall replacement cycle.’ This is where a smaller, inner eyewall collapses, and a larger, outer one forms. This process, as explained by University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy, typically leads to at least a temporary weakening of the storm.
However, Melissa, despite showing signs of initiating such a cycle, never actually completed it, leaving both McNoldy and Klotzbach puzzled.
Adding to its bizarre behavior, Melissa lingered offshore of mountainous Jamaica for a significant period before moving inland. Typically, even island mountain ranges disrupt and weaken incoming storms, but Melissa appeared to be completely unaffected.
‘It was next to a big mountainous island and it doesn’t even notice it’s there,’ McNoldy remarked, his amazement palpable.
Hurricanes are fueled by warm ocean waters; the hotter and deeper the water, the more potent a storm can become. Yet, even when storms stall over an area for days – as Melissa did – they usually draw up colder water from below, effectively cutting off their own fuel supply. This crucial weakening mechanism failed entirely with Melissa, noted Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist for Climate Central, an organization dedicated to climate change research and communication.
‘It’s wild how almost easily this was allowed to just keep venting,’ Woods Placky commented. ‘This had enough warm water at such high levels and it just kept going, seemingly without limit.’
Melissa achieved extreme rapid intensification not once, but five times over six-hour periods, according to McNoldy. And then, it astonishingly surged by an additional 56 kmph. ‘That’s extraordinary,’ he emphasized.
For meteorologists tracking the storm, Woods Placky described the feeling: ‘just your stomach would sink as you’d see these updates coming in.’
She recounted the tense moments: ‘We were sitting at work on Monday morning with our team and you just saw the numbers just start jumping again, 175. And then again this morning (Tuesday), 185,’ Woods Placky said, illustrating the hurricane’s relentless growth.
A critical element contributing to Melissa’s ferocity was the unusually warm ocean water. McNoldy reported that sections of the ocean beneath the hurricane were a striking 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than their historical average for that period.
Climate Central, employing rigorous scientific methodologies to contrast current conditions with a hypothetical world untouched by human-induced climate change, analyzed global warming’s influence on Melissa. Their findings were stark: the unusually warm water beneath the storm was estimated to be 500 to 700 times more probable due to climate change.
A swift analysis by the Associated Press, examining Category 5 hurricanes formed in the Atlantic over the last 125 years (not just those making landfall), revealed a significant surge in these most powerful storms. From 2016 to 2025, a staggering 13 Category 5 hurricanes emerged, with three appearing just this year. Prior to this period, no other decade had even reached double digits. Alarmingly, roughly 29% of all Category 5 hurricanes recorded in the past 125 years have occurred since 2016 alone.
While these statistics are concerning, McNoldy, Klotzbach, and Woods Placky cautioned that hurricane records from before the modern satellite era might be less reliable, as some storms far out at sea could have gone undetected. They also noted that improvements and changes in strength measurement systems might play a role. Klotzbach further pointed out a notable lull between 2008 and 2015, during which the Atlantic saw no Category 5 storms.
Nevertheless, the prevailing consensus in climate science is clear: a warming planet will likely lead to a greater prevalence of stronger storms, even if the total number of storms doesn’t significantly increase.
Woods Placky concluded, emphasizing the grave implications: ‘We’re seeing a direct connection in attribution science between ocean temperatures and climate change. When these storms pass over incredibly warm waters, it provides them with more fuel to intensify rapidly and reach unprecedented levels of power.’