Hurricane Melissa is on a path to become a rare Category 5 storm as it barrels towards Jamaica, bringing the threat of life-threatening flash floods and landslides. Current forecasts indicate winds of up to 120 mph (195 km/h), with the storm expected to make landfall by Tuesday, according to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Residents are being urged to seek shelter immediately as the hurricane is predicted to bring up to 30 inches (76cm) of rain and sea level surges as high as 13ft (4m) above ground. This marks the 13th hurricane of the Atlantic season, which typically concludes in November.
A Category 5 hurricane represents the highest intensity, with sustained winds of at least 157mph. Although Melissa may slightly weaken to a Category 4 before reaching Jamaica, the NHC warns that the impacts will still be catastrophic. Tropical storm-force winds and heavy rainfall are expected to commence well before the storm’s core hits, potentially affecting the capital, Kingston. Authorities are advising that all preparations should be completed swiftly.
The meteorological agency has issued urgent warnings for widespread damaging winds and heavy rainfall, which are anticipated to cause catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides. Prime Minister Andrew Holness of Jamaica has addressed the nation, acknowledging the public’s anxiety and emphasizing the importance of preparedness.
Residents are advised to secure their homes with sandbags and boarding, and to ensure they have an adequate supply of essential items. Similar warnings are in place for parts of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba, with expected impacts mid-next week. Tragically, two fatalities have already been reported in Haiti due to landslides caused by the hurricane.
Forecasters predict Melissa will pass over Cuba by Wednesday, subsequently moving through the Greater Antilles and into the Atlantic, likely having weakened to a Category 3 storm by then. While direct links between individual weather events and climate change are complex, scientists note that warmer oceans are fueling more frequent and intense hurricanes.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had previously predicted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, attributing this forecast to warmer sea temperatures and potential for stronger monsoon activity in West Africa, a common breeding ground for Atlantic storms.