Negotiators from Israel and Hamas are gearing up for crucial talks in Cairo this Monday. Mediators are hopeful these discussions will lay the groundwork for a definitive end to the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
However, the path to a swift ceasefire is fraught with obstacles. American, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators anticipate significant challenges. This round of negotiations is primarily focused on a single, vital issue: the exchange of remaining hostages held in Gaza for Palestinian prisoners. This priority suggests that discussions on other major hurdles to ending the war might be postponed.
Currently, Israel estimates that approximately 20 live hostages, alongside the remains of at least 25 others, are still being held in Gaza. Given Hamas views these captives as critical bargaining chips, their release is unlikely unless other components of a broader agreement are first established.
President Trump’s latest peace blueprint for the nearly two-year-old conflict outlines a specific exchange: the hostages for 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences in prison and 1,700 Gazans detained by Israel during the war. Furthermore, Israel is expected to repatriate the bodies of 15 Gazans for every deceased Israeli returned.
In a social media post on Saturday, Mr. Trump hinted that the hostages’ release could occur swiftly once Hamas accepts the updated terms, especially concerning the extent of Israeli troop withdrawal from their current positions within Gaza.
Yet, this withdrawal is just one facet of Mr. Trump’s comprehensive plan. The proposal also envisages the establishment of an internationally supervised Palestinian government, a post-war security force comprised of international contingents, and the disarmament of Hamas.
Hamas officials have voiced considerable reservations about several aspects of this plan, particularly the directive to surrender their weapons. Analysts suggest that even the seemingly straightforward terms of the hostage-prisoner exchange are likely to encounter difficulties.
The Trump administration’s proposal stipulates that Hamas must return all surviving captives and identified bodies within 72 hours of Israel agreeing to a ceasefire.
However, both Israeli and Hamas representatives acknowledge that the Palestinian group may require more time to comply. Some living hostages are reportedly held deep underground, while locating and exhuming the bodies of others will undoubtedly be a time-consuming process.
Another contentious point expected to arise is the precise distance Israeli forces are prepared to withdraw from their existing deployments within Gaza.
Previous discussions saw Hamas agreeing to an Israeli withdrawal to a buffer zone near the enclave’s borders. However, the boundaries outlined in Mr. Trump’s vision would position Israeli troops significantly deeper inside Gaza, a condition Hamas is likely to contest.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas has now raged for two years, ignited by the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, which resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths. According to local health officials, the subsequent devastating Israeli military campaign in Gaza has claimed over 65,000 lives, including thousands of children.