Despite Israel’s intense military campaign, which has claimed the lives of thousands of Hamas fighters, crippled their weapon stockpiles, and dismantled much of their intricate underground tunnel network, the group remains a potent force in Gaza.
This relentless assault has fundamentally altered Hamas’s military structure. What was once an organized army has splintered into dispersed, agile resistance cells. Their focus has shifted to survival and defensive guerrilla tactics, primarily ambushing Israeli soldiers rather than engaging in direct confrontations.
As Wesam Afifa, former executive director of Hamas’s Al Aqsa TV, observed, “On the ground, there are no longer fixed Hamas strongholds in the conventional military sense. What remains today are small, mobile resistance cells fighting in guerrilla style.”
However, Hamas still wields significant influence among Palestinians in Gaza. This week, Israeli troops launched a full-scale ground invasion of Gaza City, an operation they hope will finally lead to the group’s destruction. This is a perilous undertaking, especially with hundreds of thousands of Palestinians still residing in the area, many unable or unwilling to seek refuge in already overcrowded and resource-scarce zones.
Hamas’s battlefield strategy now primarily involves hit-and-run attacks. Israeli security officials report that the group is expertly planting explosives beneath roads, within residential buildings, and on Israeli military vehicles. Recent videos released by Hamas’s military wing depict fighters in civilian attire ambushing tanks, armored personnel carriers, and soldiers before swiftly retreating. Since January alone, approximately 70 Israeli soldiers have perished in combat in Gaza.
According to former CIA director William J. Burns, Hamas currently lacks the capacity to orchestrate another large-scale attack akin to that of October 7, 2023, which resulted in around 1,200 deaths and hundreds of abductions, igniting the current conflict. Israel’s subsequent military response has tragically killed tens of thousands of Palestinians. Current and former Israeli security officials also confirm that Hamas is no longer capable of launching extensive rocket barrages or repelling significant Israeli ground advances.
The precise number of remaining militants in Gaza is difficult to ascertain, but Israeli security services estimate roughly 15,000, according to Shalom Ben Hanan, a former senior official in Israel’s Shin Bet intelligence agency, who receives regular briefings on the war.
Prior to the Gaza City offensive, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly asserted that defeating Hamas was within reach. However, many military analysts remain skeptical that this new operation will deliver a decisive blow.
Hamas fighters during a handover of Israeli hostages in February. Credit: Saher Alghorra for The New York Times
Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli military intelligence officer specializing in Palestinian affairs, stated, “It’s naïve to believe Israel can put an end to Hamas in short order. It just doesn’t work that way.”
As Israeli forces push deeper into Gaza City, it’s highly probable that many of Hamas’s remaining fighters will simply relocate to other parts of Gaza. A senior Middle Eastern intelligence official, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the information, indicated that Hamas concentrations are also found in Deir al-Balah in central Gaza and Mawasi, a southern coastal area.
While Israel could attempt to clear these regions too, security officials warn that preventing Hamas from regrouping would demand years of sustained conflict.
Netanyahu has outlined a vision for ending the war, which includes Hamas’s complete surrender, to be achieved through force or negotiation. Hamas, however, steadfastly rejects these terms, vowing to fight until its last bullet or secure a deal that includes a permanent ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the release of Palestinian prisoners.
On Thursday, amidst the Israeli advance into Gaza City, Hamas’s military wing declared its readiness, stating it had prepared “an army of suicide fighters and thousands of ambushes.”
Yet, some Palestinian analysts suggest that both Hamas and Israel might be inflating the group’s strength to serve their respective agendas. Mohammed al-Astal, an analyst in southern Gaza, believes Hamas is projecting power to leverage a ceasefire deal, while Israel portrays Hamas as an insurmountable threat to justify its extensive destruction and potential displacement of Gaza’s population.
“What Israel is practicing on the ground goes beyond eliminating Hamas,” al-Astal commented. “There’s a general impression among Palestinians that Israel wants to eliminate Gaza and the people.”
The Israeli military maintains that Hamas militants and their weapon infrastructure are deliberately embedded within civilian areas. This assertion is echoed by Shalom Ben Hanan, who noted that Hamas continues to extort local businesspeople and recruit new fighters. “All these things demonstrate that Hamas is still in power,” he affirmed.
Beyond its military actions, Hamas also continues to manage some civil institutions, oversee internal security forces, and even disburse payments to government employees.
Esmat Mansour, a Palestinian political analyst with a history of imprisonment alongside top Hamas leaders in Israel, concluded, “When we talk about Hamas, we’re really talking about the remnants of Hamas. But as much as they’ve been weakened, they’re still the only game in town.”