Guinea is at a crossroads. Four years after its military dramatically seized power, citizens are finally heading to the polls for a referendum on a new draft constitution. This crucial vote is meant to set the stage for future elections, but it also contains a contentious clause that could allow the current junta leader, General Mamady Doumbouya, to run for president – a move that has already sparked a strong boycott from the opposition.
Scheduled for Sunday, September 17, 2025, this long-awaited vote by both Guineans and the international community is ostensibly designed to unblock the nation’s stalled political transition and pave the way for democratic elections in the West African country.
Since the dramatic overthrow of elected civilian president Alpha Conde in 2021, Guinea has been under the tight, unyielding control of General Mamady Doumbouya and his military junta.
Out of a population of roughly 14.5 million, approximately 6.7 million Guineans are eligible to cast their ballots.
Despite its abundant natural resources like bauxite and iron ore, Guinea remains one of the world’s poorest nations, burdened by a tumultuous history marked by numerous coups and oppressive authoritarian regimes.
Initially, bowing to significant international pressure, Guinea’s military junta had promised to restore civilian rule by the end of 2024.
However, by prioritizing this constitutional referendum, the junta appears to have cleverly sidestepped direct demands from the global community and international donors for immediate elections to establish a civilian government.
While Guinean authorities continue to pledge presidential and legislative elections before the year’s end, a concrete date remains conspicuously absent.
Despite General Doumbouya’s earlier assurances that he would not seek election and intended to return power to the people, all indicators now suggest he is preparing to run for office himself.
Franklin Nossiter, a Sahel analyst with the International Crisis Group, observed, “Since 2021, there has been no electoral contest of any kind, no votes cast. The government has consistently delayed holding elections.”
Nossiter further elaborated, “Although when he took power, Mr. Doumbouya was very clear that he was not going to hold on to power… it seems pretty clear that a run for office is the direction where things are heading.”
Should this new constitution be adopted, it would supersede the existing “transition charter” — a military-established document that specifically barred junta leaders, government officials, and heads of institutions from participating in elections.
Crucially, this restrictive stipulation has been removed from the new draft constitution, effectively clearing the path for General Doumbouya to contend for the presidency.
With the opposition calling for a boycott, the voter turnout remains a significant question. Furthermore, the junta has yet to announce when the referendum results will be released, adding to the uncertainty.
A Stifling Silence on Dissent
According to Mr. Nossiter, the authorities “have no intention of going anywhere.”
The opposition has vehemently urged a boycott of the referendum, condemning it as a blatant power grab by General Doumbouya.
Concurrently, a chilling silence has descended upon dissent and opposition in Guinea, as the junta has progressively tightened its grip on fundamental freedoms.
Since 2022, the military government has outlawed demonstrations, leading to the arrest, prosecution, or forced exile of numerous opposition leaders. Tragically, some have even become victims of forced disappearances.
Just recently, on August 23, the junta suspended three of Guinea’s most prominent opposition parties for a period of three months.
Moreover, multiple media outlets have faced suspension, and journalists have been arrested, fostering a pervasive climate of fear within the press.
The proposed constitution, comprising 199 articles, carries the ambitious title: “A New Constitution, a Constitution that Reflects Us and Unites Us.”
Many of its articles are notably progressive. For instance, it proposes the establishment of a High Court of Justice, designed to prosecute presidents and government members, thereby aiming to combat impunity.
Additionally, the draft includes the creation of a Senate to ensure a balance of power, and, significantly, promotes gender parity with a mandatory quota of at least 30% women in all decision-making and elected roles.
Prime Minister Amadou Oury Bah, in an interview, stated that “Guineans aspire to have a modern country.” He added, “In terms of democratic progress, the constitutional project has taken into account all the demands that have more or less been made by society, both political and civic, in recent decades.”
However, the draft constitution also contains several provisions that have drawn intense criticism from the opposition.
Specifically, stipulations requiring presidential candidates to be between 40 and 80 years old and to hold their primary residence within Guinea would effectively bar two prominent opposition figures from running.
This includes former President Alpha Conde, 87, currently exiled in Istanbul, and former Prime Minister and opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo, 73, who resides in exile between Dakar and Abidjan.
For weeks, the government’s “yes” campaign, supported by several ministers, has been actively promoting the referendum nationwide. Posters prominently featuring General Doumbouya’s image are ubiquitous throughout Conakry, the capital.
In stark contrast, the “no” campaign is virtually invisible, with almost no trace of its presence.