Just ten days into the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, the initial sense of relief is rapidly being replaced by a stark understanding of how delicate the truce truly is. It’s becoming clear that ongoing external involvement will be crucial not only to maintain it but also to achieve any meaningful progress towards lasting peace.
A fresh outbreak of violence on Sunday served as a harsh reminder of the immense challenges that lie ahead in forging a broader agreement in Gaza. Both sides have consistently accused each other of violating the terms of their fragile understanding.
The Israeli military confirmed that two of its soldiers were killed and another wounded when Palestinian militants fired an anti-tank missile at an army vehicle. This attack occurred in Rafah, southern Gaza, on the Israeli-controlled eastern side of the cease-fire line. Israel swiftly condemned it as a flagrant breach of the agreement, though Hamas officials were quick to deny responsibility.
Israel’s response was immediate and forceful, involving a heavy bombardment of what it identified as Hamas targets. Gaza officials reported 44 Palestinian fatalities across the territory on Sunday. Initially, Israel announced an indefinite halt to humanitarian aid shipments to the beleaguered region. However, this stance was later softened, with aid deliveries resuming after the bombardment concluded, as confirmed by relief agencies by Monday afternoon.
In the wake of the attacks, Bezalel Smotrich, a prominent far-right figure in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government, demanded an immediate and open-ended resumption of Israel’s military campaign against Hamas. His defiant message on a social media platform simply read, “War!”
Yet, the Israeli military’s intense but brief retaliation, coupled with the reversal of the threat to cut off aid, suggested a strong mitigating influence from US officials, according to political analysts.
Indeed, senior US envoys, including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, arrived in Israel on Monday to advance their peace initiative, a US Embassy spokeswoman confirmed. Vice President JD Vance also indicated Sunday evening that he might visit Israel soon.
Shira Efron, an Israeli analyst from RAND, clarified the Vice President’s role, stating, “He’s not coming to jointly command Israeli strikes on Hamas.”
Even within his own government, Prime Minister Netanyahu faced criticism from his right-wing allies, who accused him of caving to pressure from the Trump administration, a charge not heard for the first time. Far-right minister Itamar Ben-Gvir expressed his frustration on social media, writing, “Enough with the folding.”
Sunday’s violence marked the most significant Israeli offensive in Gaza since the precarious cease-fire began. Other incidents have also disrupted the calm. Last week, the Israeli military reported firing upon a vehicle in northern Gaza that had allegedly crossed the ‘yellow line’ – a demarcation zone where Israeli forces have been positioned since the truce. Gazan officials reported nine deaths, including children, from that incident.
Ms. Efron observed, “Israelis are genuinely outraged by the killing of two soldiers, but it’s not like there haven’t been deaths of civilians in Gaza in the past week. Both sides can find reasons to claim the cease-fire has been violated. What truly sustains these negotiations is the leverage provided by Trump and the mediating parties.”
The Israeli government is not the only one facing external pressure. After Hamas delivered the remains of only four hostages last Monday out of an estimated 28 still held in Gaza, mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey reportedly shared Israeli intelligence regarding the location of other captives. This prompted the militant group to intensify its efforts, resulting in the return of 12 sets of remains by Sunday, according to US officials.
As Hamas sought to distance itself from the Rafah attack, its military wing reiterated its “full commitment” to upholding the cease-fire. Notably, they admitted to having lost contact with their fighters in Rafah back in March, stating they were unsure if any were still alive.
This admission highlighted a critical aspect of the cease-fire’s fragility: if Hamas cannot genuinely control all its fighting units, its ability to fully enforce its side of the agreement is compromised, thereby reducing the likelihood of a complete Israeli withdrawal.
Furthermore, the return of all living hostages has paradoxically given the Israeli military greater freedom to retaliate against Hamas with less fear of harming its own citizens, explained Tamir Hayman, former head of Israeli military intelligence and now leader of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
Although Sunday’s escalation appeared to be a single, contained episode, several analysts predict that more such rounds of violence are likely to occur.
Michael Milshtein, an analyst specializing in Palestinian affairs at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University and a former Israeli military intelligence expert, believes Hamas will continue to probe Israel’s responses. He also noted the practical difficulty for Gaza residents to adhere to the unmarked ‘yellow line’ separating Israeli and Hamas-controlled areas.
Mr. Milshtein articulated the prevailing sentiment: “The situation is incredibly uncertain, delicate, and volatile. I fear that in the coming weeks, we will see a period of attrition – almost daily breaches, clashes, and crises, both major and minor. It will be an ongoing struggle.”
However, Israeli analysts suggested that sustaining the cease-fire pales in comparison to the immense challenge of advancing the Trump administration’s peace plan. The plan’s core demand for Hamas to disarm would fundamentally require the group to abandon its entire foundational ideology of armed resistance.
Mr. Hayman further pointed out Hamas’s efforts to reassert its control and spread fear in Gaza, citing the public execution of eight rivals by Hamas militants on a crowded Gaza City street last week.
He elaborated, “By undertaking such actions, they strengthen their position, which makes demilitarizing them significantly more challenging. The enthusiasm among Arab and Western nations to deeply engage in demilitarization efforts is diminishing by the hour.”
According to Mr. Milshtein, the recent week has delivered an unwelcome realization to Israelis about Hamas: “It’s difficult for many Israelis to acknowledge, but they were not defeated. They still hold influence and remain the dominant force in Gaza.”
Conversely, some Palestinian analysts propose that Hamas seems keen to maintain the cease-fire and may even be prepared to make further concessions to secure an end to the conflict and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
Mohammed al-Astal, a Gaza-based analyst, stated, “Hamas is looking for a way to step back, but they want to do so with dignity. They need an honorable exit strategy.”
Mr. al-Astal suggested that while Hamas would resist any humiliating attempts by Mr. Netanyahu to disarm them, the group might consider relinquishing power quietly and retaining a role in Gaza if given the chance. He even hinted at the possibility of Hamas transferring its weapons to another Palestinian entity.
He concluded, “They understand they have no other viable options. They are under immense pressure both internally and externally within Gaza.”
Adam Rasgon and Aaron Boxerman contributed to this report.