A mere ten days into the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, the initial sigh of relief has dissolved into a stark realization of the truce’s extreme fragility. It’s clear that ongoing external intervention is not just helpful, but absolutely essential to sustain this delicate peace, let alone to achieve any meaningful progress towards a lasting resolution.
The fresh wave of violence on Sunday served as a harsh reminder of the immense difficulty in forging a wider agreement in Gaza. Both sides have consistently traded accusations of cease-fire violations, underscoring the deep-seated distrust and the complex nature of the conflict.
The Israeli military reported that two of its soldiers were killed and another injured when Palestinian militants fired an anti-tank missile at an army vehicle in Rafah, southern Gaza. This incident occurred on the Israeli-controlled side of the cease-fire line and was immediately condemned by Israel as a clear breach of the truce. Hamas, however, swiftly denied involvement in the attack.
Israel responded quickly, with a severe bombardment targeting what it identified as Hamas facilities. Gaza officials reported 44 Palestinian casualties across the territory that day. Initially, Israel declared an indefinite halt to humanitarian aid into the ravaged region, though this stance was later softened to a temporary pause until the aerial attacks concluded.
Mourners on Thursday in Holon, Israel, buried Eitan Levi, who had been taken to Gaza.
Hardline figures within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, such as Bezalel Smotrich, swiftly called for an immediate and open-ended resumption of Israel’s offensive against Hamas, with Smotrich simply declaring “War!” on social media.
Analysts observed that the Israeli military’s brief but intense response, coupled with the retraction of the indefinite aid cutoff, strongly indicated a moderating influence from U.S. officials.
Indeed, President Trump’s chief Middle East envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, are slated to visit Israel this week to advance his peace initiative. Vice President JD Vance also hinted at a potential trip to the region in the coming days.
“He’s certainly not arriving to co-command Israeli military operations against Hamas,” noted Shira Efron, a prominent Israeli analyst at RAND, referring to the Vice President’s anticipated visit.
This perceived moderation wasn’t lost on Netanyahu’s right-wing allies, who, not for the first time, accused him of yielding to pressure from the Trump administration. “Enough with the folding,” exclaimed far-right minister Itamar Ben-Gvir on X.
The recent Sunday clashes marked the most significant Israeli offensive on Gaza since the fragile cease-fire began. The calm had already been punctuated by previous incidents; last week, the Israeli military confirmed firing on a vehicle in northern Gaza, claiming it had breached the “yellow line” – a demarcation where Israeli forces had pulled back post-cease-fire. Gazan officials reported nine fatalities, including children, from that incident.
Palestinians rushing toward aid trucks in Khan Younis, in southern Gaza, this month.
“While Israelis are justifiably outraged by the loss of two soldiers, we must acknowledge the civilian deaths in Gaza over the past week,” Ms. Efron asserted. “Both sides can readily claim cease-fire violations. What truly sustains these negotiations is the decisive influence of President Trump and the mediators.”
The diplomatic pressure isn’t solely on Israel. Following Hamas’s initial release of only four hostage bodies last Monday (out of an estimated 28 still held in Gaza), U.S. officials revealed that Egyptian, Qatari, and Turkish mediators had shared Israeli intelligence regarding the remaining captives’ locations. This prompted Hamas to recover more, with 12 sets of remains returned by Sunday.
While Hamas disavowed the Rafah attack, its military faction publicly reaffirmed its “full commitment” to the cease-fire. They even admitted to having lost contact with their Rafah fighters back in March, stating they didn’t know if any were still alive.
This confession highlighted a critical aspect of the truce’s vulnerability: if Hamas genuinely cannot control certain fighting units, its ability to fully enforce its side of the cease-fire is questionable, thereby diminishing the likelihood of a complete Israeli withdrawal.
According to Tamir Hayman, former head of Israeli military intelligence and current leader of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, the successful return of all living hostages has also granted the Israeli military greater freedom. They can now retaliate against Hamas with more force, whenever and wherever they deem necessary, without the previous concern of harming their own citizens still held captive.
Searching for the bodies of hostages in Khan Younis on Sunday.
Despite Sunday’s violence appearing to be a contained incident, several analysts predict a series of similar skirmishes in the future.
Michael Milshtein, a Palestinian affairs expert and analyst at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, suggested that Hamas would likely continue to probe Israel’s reactions. He also pointed out the inherent difficulty for Gaza residents to respect the unmarked “yellow line” separating Israeli and Hamas-controlled areas.
“The situation remains incredibly unclear, fragile, and sensitive,” stated Mr. Milshtein. “I anticipate that the coming weeks will bring a period of attrition, characterized by almost daily violations, clashes, and crises, both large and small. This will be an ongoing, formidable challenge.”
Nevertheless, Israeli analysts contend that maintaining the cease-fire pales in comparison to the immense task of advancing the Trump peace plan. The plan’s demand for Hamas to effectively disarm would necessitate the group abandoning its fundamental ideology of armed resistance, a prospect met with significant skepticism.
Mr. Hayman further indicated that Hamas is actively working to instill fear and reassert its control in Gaza. He cited the recent public execution of eight rivals by Hamas militants on a busy Gaza City street as a clear example of this strategy.
“Such actions strengthen them and complicate any attempts to demilitarize the group,” Mr. Hayman explained. “The willingness of Arab and Western nations to deeply engage in demilitarization efforts is diminishing rapidly.”
The events of the past week delivered a difficult, unwelcome lesson to Israelis about Hamas, according to Mr. Milshtein. “It’s tough for many Israelis to accept, but Hamas wasn’t defeated,” he observed. “They remain a formidable force and the dominant player in Gaza.”
A farewell ceremony for Bipin Joshi, a Nepali citizen who died in captivity in Gaza, at Ben Gurion Airport in Israel on Sunday.
Conversely, some Palestinian analysts believe Hamas is keen to maintain the cease-fire and might even offer further concessions to secure an end to the conflict and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
“Hamas seeks a dignified retreat, an honorable exit ramp,” commented Mohammed al-Astal, a Gaza-based analyst.
Al-Astal emphasized that Hamas would fiercely resist any attempts by Mr. Netanyahu to disarm them in a demeaning way. However, he suggested that if offered a path to relinquish power discreetly while retaining a role in Gaza, the group might consider it, potentially even agreeing to transfer its weaponry to another Palestinian authority.
“They recognize they have limited choices,” al-Astal concluded, noting that the group is under immense pressure both internally and externally.