As President Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ prepares for its first meeting in Washington, detailed proposals are circulating, painting a picture of a hopeful, rebuilt Gaza after the war.
However, this vision stands in stark contrast to the grim reality on the ground.
Professor Mkhaimar Abusada, a Palestinian political analyst displaced from Gaza City and now in Cairo, states that despite efforts to portray a positive outlook, the situation remains catastrophic.
A delicate cease-fire, implemented two years after the devastating Hamas-led attack on Israel that sparked the conflict, has done little to clear the incredibly complex and obstacle-ridden path ahead.
According to Professor Abusada, the Trump-backed cease-fire plan is facing immense challenges, with both Hamas and Israel contributing to its difficulties.
While President Trump announced that international body members pledged over $5 billion for Gaza’s humanitarian aid and reconstruction, this sum is a mere fraction of the estimated $50 billion the United Nations believes is required to rebuild the enclave.
Furthermore, nations have committed thousands of troops and personnel to form an International Stabilization Force, intended to ‘maintain security’ in the region, as stated by Mr. Trump.
Western diplomats, who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussions, have revealed that American officials are considering plans for a peacekeeping military base in an Israeli-controlled part of southern Gaza.
Despite glossy presentations envisioning a futuristic coastal city, the immediate task in Israeli-controlled Gaza involves the painstaking removal of unexploded ordnance and an estimated 60 million tons of war debris by the Israeli military and private contractors.
Gaza is currently struggling to provide even basic necessities. Internal documents obtained by The New York Times indicate that experts have drafted a detailed paper on waste management, highlighting the severity of the infrastructure crisis.
Even with the war officially over, Gaza remains far from safe. Local health officials report approximately 600 Palestinian deaths from Israeli strikes since the cease-fire began, without distinguishing between combatants and civilians.
Israel asserts that its almost daily strikes target militants violating the truce or posing immediate threats, yet these actions have resulted in child casualties.
Gaza’s health ministry reports a total of 72,000 fatalities since the war’s commencement, with Israel claiming a significant number of these were militants.
Currently, Israeli forces control roughly half of the coastal strip, where anti-Hamas militias have emerged, engaging in looting. The remaining half is largely controlled by a weakened but persistent Hamas, where the majority of Gaza’s two million residents, many still displaced, live in temporary tents.
Despite Hamas’s promise to relinquish control of Gaza’s administration, its armed members continue to operate checkpoints, conduct detentions and interrogations, and levy fees.
Substantial progress in Gaza is inextricably linked to resolving the most contentious aspects of the 20-point peace plan put forth by Mr. Trump and endorsed by the U.N. Security Council. Key among these are the disarmament of Hamas, the demilitarization of Gaza, and the guaranteed withdrawal of Israeli forces.
Hamas shows considerable reluctance to surrender its weapons, which are vital for maintaining control over the population and are central to its identity as a resistance force against Israel.
Following the unexpected Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, which resulted in approximately 1,200 Israeli fatalities, Israel remains profoundly distrustful of Hamas’s intentions.
Consequently, Israel continues to restrict the entry of numerous ‘dual-use’ items into Gaza, citing concerns that Hamas could repurpose them for military use. Officials, speaking anonymously due to the sensitive nature of the topic, note that this evolving list currently includes even items like wide-diameter steel tent poles.
While the most severe food shortages have lessened, Western officials and aid organizations accuse Israel of deliberately delaying other crucial forms of assistance, given its tight control over all goods entering Gaza.
The United Nations reports that approximately 80% of Gaza’s buildings were damaged or destroyed. Despite this, and the challenging winter conditions, Israel has significantly restricted or postponed the delivery of caravans and temporary homes, as noted by the Shelter Cluster, a coalition of UN and humanitarian groups focused on housing.
The UN states that around 4,000 emergency temporary housing units are either ready or in progress. However, a UN development official, Alexander De Croo, who recently visited Gaza, highlighted the need for about 200,000 prefabricated relief housing units to adequately support displaced families.
COGAT, the Israeli military unit responsible for overseeing aid entry into Gaza, has refuted allegations of obstructing or delaying assistance.
In a statement, COGAT asserted, ‘The reality is completely opposite,’ maintaining that Israel is fulfilling its obligations under the cease-fire agreement.
The border crossing between Gaza and Egypt, previously closed for nearly two years, recently reopened for pedestrians. However, only a small number of Gazans—primarily those seeking overseas medical care, their accompanying caregivers, or returning residents—have been able to use it.
Progress is complicated by the unwillingness of key actors to take risks or offer concessions without prior moves from the other side.
Shira Efron, chair of Israel policy at the U.S.-based RAND Corporation, explained that while ‘all the structures are ready,’ on-the-ground changes are stalled because ‘one thing is dependent on another.’
She further noted that ‘reconstruction and Israeli military withdrawal are contingent on disarmament and the deployment of the International Stabilization Force.’
Ms. Efron observed that after almost two decades of control, Hamas is attempting to solidify its authority in Gaza rather than relinquish it, as ‘they are the ones enforcing law and order.’
She emphasized that even the seemingly straightforward task of Hamas transferring civilian rule in Gaza, which they had previously agreed to, ‘will be complicated.’
Hamas is unlikely to willingly give up its tax revenues, and an organized transition seems improbable, especially given the group’s ‘poor and partial at best’ past governance of Gaza.
The ‘Board of Peace’ has named a committee of Palestinian technocrats to serve as a transitional government, replacing Hamas; however, these technocrats currently remain based in Cairo.
Officials and those familiar with the committee’s perspectives state that members are awaiting a more secure environment and a relaxation of Israeli restrictions on goods. These conditions are deemed crucial for improving residents’ lives and establishing the committee’s credibility as it begins operations in Gaza.
Professor Abusada stressed that for the committee to gain public support, ‘They need to go back with something in their hands to win the hearts and minds of people in Gaza.’
Currently, committee members are participating in governance training workshops organized by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, according to informed sources.
Above all, the constant threat of renewed conflict hangs heavily over the region.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, facing an election this year, has stated he will give the cease-fire plan an opportunity. However, he warns that if Hamas refuses to disarm, the process will proceed ‘the hard way,’ implying a new Israeli military offensive.
According to officials and sources familiar with the discussions, the Trump administration and mediators have been developing a phased disarmament agreement. This plan would require Hamas to relinquish all weapons capable of striking Israel, while allowing the group to retain some small arms in the initial stages.
Mr. Netanyahu, however, seemed to reject this phased disarmament approach, which focuses on heavy weaponry like rockets. He highlighted that Kalashnikov assault rifles were used in the October 2023 attack, demanding Hamas surrender 60,000 of these weapons.
It remains uncertain if Hamas would even agree to such terms. Nickolay Mladenov, a former UN official and the ‘high representative’ for Gaza on the ‘Board of Peace,’ recently met with Hamas’s chief negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, in Cairo to push for disarmament. However, officials, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity, reported that al-Hayya declined to discuss the matter.