Just ten days into the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, the initial sense of relief is rapidly fading. It’s becoming painfully clear how fragile this truce is, emphasizing the critical need for ongoing external intervention to sustain it and move towards any lasting peace.
A fresh wave of violence on Sunday starkly illustrated the immense difficulties involved in reaching a broader agreement in Gaza. Both sides have been quick to accuse the other of breaking the terms of the cease-fire.
According to the Israeli military, two Israeli soldiers were killed and another wounded when Palestinian militants fired an anti-tank missile at an army vehicle. This incident occurred in Rafah, southern Gaza, on the Israeli-controlled eastern side of the cease-fire line. Israel immediately condemned it as a severe breach of the agreement, though Hamas officials quickly denied involvement.
Israel responded decisively, launching a forceful bombardment against what it identified as Hamas targets. Gaza officials reported that 44 Palestinians were killed across the territory on Sunday. Initially, Israel announced an indefinite halt to humanitarian aid supplies to Gaza but later clarified that deliveries would only be paused until its military response concluded.
Bezalel Smotrich, a far-right minister in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, publicly demanded an immediate, open-ended resumption of Israel’s offensive against Hamas, posting simply “War!” on X.
However, the brief but intense nature of Israel’s military retaliation, coupled with its swift retraction of the complete aid cutoff threat, suggests that American officials exerted a significant restraining influence, according to analysts.
Indeed, both Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, prominent envoys from the Trump administration, arrived in Israel on Monday to advance the peace plan, a U.S. Embassy spokeswoman confirmed. Vice President JD Vance also indicated on Sunday that he might visit Israel in the coming days.
“He’s not coming to jointly command Israeli strikes on Hamas,” commented Shira Efron, an Israeli analyst at RAND, regarding the Vice President’s potential visit.
Even Prime Minister Netanyahu’s right-wing allies criticized him for appearing to yield to pressure from the Trump administration, a situation they’ve seen before. Itamar Ben-Gvir, another far-right minister, expressed his frustration on X, stating, “Enough with the folding.”
Sunday’s escalation marked the most intense Israeli attacks on Gaza since the precarious cease-fire began. Other incidents have also disrupted the calm. Last week, the Israeli military reported firing on a vehicle in northern Gaza, claiming it had crossed the “yellow line”—a demarcation where Israeli forces have withdrawn since the truce. Gazan officials reported nine people, including children, were killed in that incident.
“Israelis are genuinely outraged about the killing of two soldiers, but there have also been civilian deaths in Gaza over the past week,” Ms. Efron observed. “Both sides have justifications to claim the cease-fire has been breached. What keeps these negotiations alive is the influence wielded by Trump and the mediators.”
Pressure isn’t solely on the Israeli government. After Hamas delivered the remains of only four hostages last Monday (out of 28 still believed to be in Gaza), mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey shared Israeli intelligence about the locations of others. This prompted the militant group to recover more, according to U.S. officials. By Sunday, Hamas had returned the remains of 12 captives.
As Hamas denied responsibility for the Rafah attack, its military wing reiterated its “full commitment” to the cease-fire. It even admitted losing contact with its fighters in Rafah back in March and being unsure if any were still alive.
This admission, among other elements of Sunday’s events, exposed the cease-fire’s extreme vulnerability. If Hamas truly cannot control all its fighting units, it might struggle to fully uphold its side of the truce, which could make an Israeli withdrawal less likely.
The repatriation of all living hostages has also given the Israeli military greater freedom to retaliate against Hamas whenever and wherever it chooses, without the previous concern of harming its own citizens, explained Tamir Hayman, former head of Israeli military intelligence and current leader of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
While Sunday’s violence seemed like a contained incident, several analysts predict more such outbreaks.
Michael Milshtein, an analyst at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University and a former Israeli military expert on Palestinian affairs, suggested that Hamas would likely continue to test Israel’s reactions. He also noted that the “yellow line” separating Israeli and Hamas-controlled territories is unmarked, making it difficult for Gaza residents to adhere to.
“The situation is extremely ambiguous, fragile, and delicate,” Mr. Milshtein stated. “I fear we are heading towards a period of attrition in the coming weeks—nearly daily violations, clashes, and crises, whether large or small. It will be an ongoing challenge.”
Still, Israeli analysts maintained that maintaining the cease-fire pales in comparison to the challenge of advancing the Trump peace plan. This is especially true given that the plan’s requirement for Hamas to disarm would essentially force the group to abandon its core ideology of armed resistance.
Mr. Hayman added that Hamas is actively attempting to instill fear and reassert its control in Gaza. He cited the recent executions of eight rivals by Hamas militants on a crowded Gaza City street as an example.
“By doing that, they’re strengthening their position, which makes demilitarization much more difficult,” Mr. Hayman explained. “The willingness of Arab or Western countries to get deeply involved in demilitarization is diminishing by the hour.”
Mr. Milshtein noted that the past week had delivered an unwelcome realization to Israelis about Hamas. “It’s very hard for many Israelis to accept, but Hamas wasn’t defeated,” he said. “They still exist, and they remain the dominant force in Gaza.”
Despite these challenges, some Palestinian analysts believe Hamas is keen to uphold the cease-fire and might even offer more concessions to secure an end to the war and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
“Hamas wants to de-escalate, but in a way that preserves its dignity,” said Mohammed al-Astal, a Gaza-based analyst. “It needs a respectable exit strategy.”
Mr. al-Astal suggested that Hamas would resist any attempts by Mr. Netanyahu to disarm the group in a humiliating manner. However, if offered an opportunity to quietly relinquish power while maintaining some influence in Gaza, the group might consider it. He even floated the possibility of Hamas being persuaded to hand over its weapons to another Palestinian entity.
“It understands it has no other viable options,” Mr. al-Astal concluded. “It’s caught in a vise, squeezed from both within and outside Gaza.”