Just ten days into the fragile cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, the initial relief is quickly fading, replaced by a stark realization of the truce’s extreme vulnerability. It’s becoming increasingly clear that ongoing external intervention will be crucial not only to keep this peace alive but also to foster any meaningful progress.
Sunday witnessed a fresh outbreak of violence, starkly illustrating the immense difficulties that lie ahead in achieving a comprehensive agreement in Gaza. Both sides have consistently traded accusations of cease-fire violations, underscoring the deep mistrust that persists.
The Israeli military reported that two of its soldiers were killed and another injured when Palestinian militants fired an anti-tank missile at an army vehicle. This incident occurred in Rafah, southern Gaza, on the Israeli-controlled eastern flank of the cease-fire line. Israel immediately condemned it as a clear breach of the truce, although Hamas officials swiftly denied involvement.
Israel quickly responded with a severe bombardment targeting what it identified as Hamas infrastructure, leading to the deaths of 44 Palestinians across the territory on Sunday, according to Gaza officials. Initially, Israel declared an indefinite halt to humanitarian aid into the ravaged area, though this was later revised to a temporary pause until the offensive concluded.
Following the attacks, Bezalel Smotrich, a far-right figure within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling coalition, publicly called for an immediate and indefinite relaunch of Israel’s military campaign against Hamas, proclaiming ‘War!’ in a social media post.
However, the intense yet brief Israeli military retaliation, coupled with the softened stance on halting aid to Gaza, indicated a likely restraining hand from U.S. officials, according to analysts.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s senior envoys to the Middle East, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, are slated to visit Israel this week to advance Trump’s peace initiative. Vice President JD Vance also indicated on Sunday that he might soon make a trip to the region.
Shira Efron, an Israeli analyst at RAND, clarified the Vice President’s role, stating he ‘is not coming to jointly command Israeli strikes on Hamas.’
Even within his own right-wing coalition, Prime Minister Netanyahu faced criticism for what allies perceived as succumbing to pressure from the Trump administration—a familiar accusation. Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far-right minister, posted ‘Enough with the folding’ on X.
Sunday’s events marked the most substantial wave of Israeli assaults on Gaza since the precarious cease-fire was established. Earlier incidents had also disrupted the peace; last week, the Israeli military reported firing on a vehicle in northern Gaza that had crossed a designated ‘yellow line’ where Israeli forces had pulled back post-truce. Gaza officials reported that this strike killed nine people, including children.
Ms. Efron noted the profound outrage among Israelis over the soldiers’ deaths, but also pointed out the civilian casualties in Gaza over the past week. ‘Both sides possess justifications to claim the cease-fire has been breached,’ she explained, emphasizing that ‘the ongoing negotiations are sustained by the influence of Trump and the mediating parties.’
Pressure isn’t limited to the Israeli government alone. Following Hamas’s handover of only four hostage bodies last Monday (out of an estimated 28 still in Gaza), U.S. officials revealed that mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey provided Israeli intelligence on the locations of other captives, urging the militant group to retrieve more. By Sunday, Hamas had returned the remains of 12 individuals.
While Hamas disavowed the Rafah attack, its military faction reiterated its ‘full commitment’ to the cease-fire. Notably, they disclosed having lost communication with their Rafah fighters back in March, making their current status unknown.
This revelation was among several elements from Sunday’s confrontations that starkly exposed the cease-fire’s inherent weakness. If Hamas genuinely cannot control all its operational units, its ability to fully uphold its end of the truce becomes questionable, consequently diminishing the likelihood of a complete Israeli withdrawal.
According to Tamir Hayman, former head of Israeli military intelligence and current leader of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, the return of all living hostages has also removed a significant constraint. This allows the Israeli military greater freedom to retaliate against Hamas more decisively, without the prior concern of endangering its own citizens during strikes.
Despite Sunday’s events appearing as an isolated flare-up, numerous analysts predict further outbreaks of violence in the near future.
Michael Milshtein, a Palestinian affairs expert and analyst at Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Center, warned that Hamas is likely to keep testing Israel’s reactions. He also highlighted the challenge of maintaining the ‘yellow line’ — the unmarked demarcation between Israeli and Hamas-controlled areas — which is often difficult for Gaza residents to recognize or respect.
Milshtein described the situation as ‘very unclear, very fragile and sensitive,’ expressing concern that ‘it will lead us during the coming weeks to a kind of attrition — almost everyday violations, clashes and crises, big or more limited. And it will be an ongoing challenge.’
However, Israeli analysts suggested that sustaining the cease-fire itself is a minor hurdle compared to the monumental task of pushing forward with the Trump peace plan. This plan fundamentally demands Hamas’s disarmament, which would effectively force the group to abandon its core ideology of armed resistance.
Hayman further asserted that Hamas is actively working to instill fear and consolidate its power in Gaza, citing last week’s public execution of eight rivals by Hamas militants on a busy Gaza City street as evidence.
He explained, ‘By doing that, they’re stronger, and it creates much more difficulties when you’re trying to demilitarize them.’ He added that ‘the appetite by Arab or Western countries to be deeply involved in demilitarization is decreasing by the hour.’
Milshtein concluded that the events of the past week delivered a difficult truth to Israelis: ‘It’s very hard for many Israelis to admit, but they weren’t defeated. They still exist, and they’re the dominant player in Gaza.’
Conversely, some Palestinian analysts believe Hamas is keen to uphold the cease-fire and might even be prepared to make further concessions to secure a definitive end to the conflict and the departure of Israeli forces from Gaza.
Mohammed al-Astal, a Gaza-based analyst, characterized Hamas’s position: ‘Hamas wants to come down the tree, but in a dignified way. It needs an honorable exit ramp.’
Al-Astal stated that Hamas would strongly oppose any attempts by Netanyahu to disarm them in a demeaning fashion. However, he suggested that if offered a chance to quietly relinquish power while retaining some influence in Gaza, the group might consider it. He even floated the possibility of Hamas transferring its weapons to another Palestinian authority.
Al-Astal concluded, ‘It knows it has no other options. It has been squeezed both inside and outside Gaza.’
Adam Rasgon also contributed to this report.