Emmanuel Macron, who once declared himself the ‘master of clocks,’ is finding his command of timing severely tested. After eight years in office, the French President is facing unprecedented pressure. His recent choice for Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, resigned after just 26 days, marking the third such resignation within a year. Opinion polls reveal a stark reality: nearly three-quarters of French voters believe Macron should step down before his term ends. Despite Macron’s insistence on completing his presidency, France finds itself in a political deadlock, uncertain whether a new government can be formed or if early parliamentary elections are imminent.
The current crisis traces back to Macron’s surprise decision to call a snap parliamentary election in June 2024. This move resulted in a hung parliament, stripping his centrist alliance of its majority and forcing him to seek broader support from other parties. The fragile alliances quickly fractured, with key figures like Bruno Retailleau of the conservative Republicans withdrawing from Lecornu’s newly announced government, further destabilizing the political landscape.
At the heart of France’s challenges lies its substantial national debt, amounting to €3.4tn (£2.9tn), nearing 114% of its economic output. The budget deficit is projected to reach 5.4% of GDP this year. Previous attempts by Prime Ministers Michel Barnier and François Bayrou to curb spending through austerity measures were met with confidence votes, leading to their swift departures. Lecornu, however, couldn’t even present a budget plan before his resignation, attributing his exit to the “unmovable” stances of political parties unwilling to compromise.
The path forward for France is fraught with difficult choices. Lecornu has until Wednesday evening to present Macron with a plan for stability. Options include:
- Forming a Coalition Government: If Lecornu can secure agreement from center-ground parties, Macron could appoint a new Prime Minister. This might involve concessions on pension reforms to gain Socialist support, but the economic implications are significant, especially with the need for a 2026 budget to address national debt.
- New Parliamentary Elections: If coalition talks fail, Macron might dissolve parliament, potentially leading to early elections. This scenario would likely favor Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party and could see voting as early as November.
- Presidential Resignation: With 18 months left in his term, calls for Macron’s resignation are growing. While he has rejected early presidential elections, some allies suggest it as a potential solution to the political gridlock.
- Parliamentary Compromise: In the absence of a government agreement, parties could potentially compromise on a limited budget within parliament, though French political history suggests this is unlikely.
The political landscape is further complicated by key figures such as Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella from the National Rally, who are poised for elections and have refused talks. Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the radical left La France Insoumise is pushing for Macron’s impeachment. Meanwhile, allies like Édouard Philippe, Macron’s former Prime Minister, are urging for an orderly transition and early presidential elections. The coming days will be critical in determining France’s political future.