French President Emmanuel Macron is preparing to make a significant announcement at the upcoming U.N. General Assembly: formal recognition of a Palestinian state. This bold diplomatic push is a cornerstone of his effort to revive a two-state solution, a vision that currently feels more distant than ever amidst the ongoing conflict.
Developed collaboratively with Saudi Arabia over the past six months, Macron’s comprehensive “day after” plan outlines a detailed roadmap for Gaza’s reconstruction and establishing lasting peace once the war, now nearing its third year, finally concludes. The initiative has garnered substantial international backing, with an impressive 142 nations signaling their support. Since Macron’s initial declaration in July, several other countries, including Canada and Britain, have pledged similar recognition, with more expected to follow at a special United Nations summit before the General Assembly officially opens.
Image: President Emmanuel Macron, clad in a dark blue suit, stands with his hands clasped before a half-open door, embodying the delicate diplomatic balancing act.
Despite this broad international consensus, the plan faces a critical hurdle: the conspicuous absence of support from both Israel and the United States. This lack of buy-in from the two most pivotal players suggests Macron’s ambitious effort might, regrettably, join the long list of failed diplomatic attempts to establish an Arab state alongside a Jewish state, a concept first championed by the U.N. in 1947. Nevertheless, Macron and his diplomatic team remain resolute, convinced that this sustained diplomatic engagement is essential, even if some observers consider it idealistic or “quixotic.”
Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former adviser on Arab-Israeli negotiations to U.S. secretaries of state, starkly observes, “The ingredients required to test the possibility of a two-state solution are simply not there.” He clarifies that while he has “no objection to the substantive elements of what the Saudis and French are prepared to do,” the plan is “wholly untethered from the current reality.”
This grim reality includes a devastating ground assault by Israeli forces this week in central Gaza City, which has already displaced hundreds of thousands of Palestinians. Adding to the complexity, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel recently declared unequivocally, “there will be no Palestinian state.” The Trump administration has further complicated matters by openly condemning the French initiative and working behind the scenes to pressure allies against endorsing it. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during a recent visit to Jerusalem, dismissed any recognition of a Palestinian state as mere symbolism, cautioning that it would only embolden Hamas. He warned that such a move could provoke an Israeli backlash, possibly leading to the annexation of the West Bank, a measure already advocated by some right-wing Israeli ministers.
Image: A somber scene depicts a long line of Palestinians making their way through a sandy, war-torn landscape, some carrying their meager belongings, as they flee Gaza City.
Macron’s team, however, views this pushback as a clear indication that both Israel and the United States are increasingly feeling the pressure of international isolation. From the very beginning, Macron has asserted that a strong, unambiguous political commitment to Palestinian statehood is the singular path to achieving a lasting peace, encouraging Hamas to lay down its arms, and ultimately ushering in regional stability.
The proposed recognition of a Palestinian state is deeply intertwined with the 42-point “day after” plan, or the “New York Declaration,” which sets forth “tangible, time-bound and irreversible steps” toward a two-state solution once a ceasefire is implemented. Approved by 142 countries at the United Nations General Assembly this month, its practical components include forming a “transitional administrative committee” for governance and establishing a U.N.-backed stabilization force for security, with details on troop contributions still being finalized by French diplomats. The declaration unequivocally condemns the horrific October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas, the forced displacement of Palestinians, and calls for the immediate release of all remaining Israeli hostages by Hamas. It also explicitly demands that Hamas “must end its rule in Gaza and hand over its weapons.”
Image: Protesters gather in Jerusalem, holding up striking, larger-than-life cutouts of individuals, symbolizing their urgent plea for the release of hostages kidnapped on October 7.
The endorsement of this document by numerous Arab and Middle Eastern countries, including some traditionally allied with Hamas, is considered a significant diplomatic breakthrough by Macron’s team. Yet, much like Macron’s “coalition of the willing” aimed at securing postwar peace in Ukraine, the “day after” plan for Gaza critically depends on active participation from the United States. It also requires the cooperation of a deeply reluctant Israeli government and Hamas, which has steadfastly refused to disarm.
Rym Momtaz, an expert on French foreign policy and editor-in-chief of the Strategic Europe blog, points out that the plan operates on the understanding that only the United States holds sufficient leverage to stop the war, given Israel’s reliance on American arms. She suggests, “France and Saudi Arabia are providing the most constructive concrete assist they can to enable President Trump to achieve the peace he promised, and also regional normalization.” While Momtaz acknowledges the plan’s realism as a strength, she also identifies its “biggest weakness, because America isn’t playing ball.” Miller echoes this sentiment, believing the French and Saudis are “not reading Trump correctly.” He elaborates that “The missing ingredient is Trump’s capacity, will and desire to essentially take on Benjamin Netanyahu,” adding, “I’ve seen nothing in the past nine months to indicate to me that when it comes to Gaza and Hamas, Trump is prepared to press Israel.”
Image: A video conference screen shows Mr. Macron engaging with European and Middle Eastern partners from Paris, ahead of the U.N. General Assembly, underscoring the collaborative nature of his diplomatic efforts.
Historically, a two-state solution has been a cornerstone of official United States policy. However, successive American administrations have historically held that Palestinian statehood should be achieved through comprehensive peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, rather than unilateral declarations or U.N. resolutions. Last year, the U.S. blocked a Palestinian bid for full member state recognition at the U.N. Security Council, with then-U.S. ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield explaining, “Palestinians don’t have control over a significant portion of what is supposed to be their state. It’s being controlled by a terrorist organization,” referring to Hamas.
The United Nations, meanwhile, has continuously supported the concept of a Palestinian state, a foundational idea for decades of peace negotiations. The 1993 Oslo Accords, signed by Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization, initially outlined a timeline for Palestinian self-determination, though this vision was ultimately dashed by escalating violence and mistrust. In 2006, Hamas, which disputes Israel’s right to exist, won the Palestinian legislative elections and subsequently took control of Gaza. This set the stage for the tragic events of October 7, 2023, when Hamas fighters killed approximately 1,200 people in Israel and abducted 250 hostages. Israel’s subsequent war against Hamas has led to immense destruction, severe food shortages, and an estimated 65,000 deaths in Gaza, according to Gazan health officials, who do not distinguish between civilian and combatant casualties.
Max Rodenbeck, Israel-Palestine project director for the International Crisis Group in London, points out that recognizing a Palestinian state before the conclusion of a peace process represents a reversal of the traditional diplomatic approach. He warned, “The trouble is on the ground; the actual state people are talking about is shrinking by the minute. Since October 7th on the West Bank alone, the amount of new territory taken by Israeli settlers is about three times the size of Gaza.”
Image: Bulldozers are seen clearing the way for a new settlement road on the outskirts of Al-Mughayyir, a village in the West Bank, highlighting the ongoing expansion of Israeli settlements.
Globally, over 140 countries have already recognized a Palestinian state, including Spain, Ireland, and Norway, who made their declarations last year. France’s recognition, however, carries particular weight due to its deep emotional and historical connections to Israel, coupled with its significant diplomatic standing. France is home to the largest Jewish and Muslim populations in Western Europe and stands as the only nuclear power and permanent U.N. Security Council member within the European Union.
Momtaz emphasizes that France’s symbolic recognition of Palestine was critical for securing commitments from Arab states, providing Macron with valuable diplomatic leverage. These commitments include public pronouncements from Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who, despite his rivalry with Hamas, has urged them to “hand over its weapons,” immediately release all hostages, and withdraw from Gaza. Abbas has also pledged to hold elections in 2026 and to undertake significant reforms within the Palestinian Authority, which currently administers parts of the West Bank. He further committed to purifying the Palestinian education curriculum of hate speech and incitement, a move addressing a key concern for many Israelis, according to Dahlia Scheindlin, a political analyst specializing in peace campaigns.
Image: Mahmoud Abbas, President of the Palestinian Authority, speaks at a lectern featuring the United Nations logo during a past U.N. General Assembly. This year, U.S. visa blocks prevented him and his staff from attending.
Scheindlin described the plan as “valuable,” suggesting its proposals could be “advanced by individual member states or maybe they can contribute to changing bilateral relations, and yes, they can be a signpost for where to go.” Following his Monday declaration, Macron has planned further meetings with partners at the United Nations to keep the initiative moving forward. Among his team, there is a lingering hope that concerted pressure from Arab countries might eventually prompt the American president to engage. However, even the plan’s staunchest backers understand this remains a long shot. “It’s a gesture of despair,” reflected Gérard Araud, a former French ambassador to Israel, the United States, and the United Nations. “We are heading toward a disaster; we are trying to stop it.”