French President Emmanuel Macron is set to formally recognize a Palestinian state next week at the UN General Assembly. This bold diplomatic move is part of his broader effort to revive a two-state solution with Israel, a resolution that currently seems more elusive than ever.
This ambitious plan, developed alongside Saudi Arabia over the past six months, aims to outline a pathway for Gaza’s reconstruction and establish lasting peace once the ongoing war—now nearing its third year—concludes. Remarkably, it has garnered support from 142 nations worldwide.
Following Mr. Macron’s July announcement of his intent to recognize Palestine, several other countries, including Canada and Britain, have indicated they will do the same. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is anticipated to make his own announcement this weekend.
The remaining nations supporting the initiative are expected to formally declare their recognition during a high-level summit at the United Nations on Monday, just before the General Assembly’s official opening.
Despite widespread international support, even Macron’s closest advisors admit the plan lacks a crucial component: any indication of backing from either Israel or the United States.
This significant oversight casts a shadow over Macron’s initiative, threatening to add it to a long list of failed diplomatic attempts stretching back to the United Nations’ 1947 call for an Arab state alongside a Jewish one.
Regardless, Mr. Macron and his diplomatic team remain steadfast, believing that this renewed push for diplomacy is worthwhile, even if critics label it as idealistic or futile.
Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated bluntly, “The necessary conditions to even explore a two-state solution are simply absent.”
Mr. Miller, a former adviser on Arab-Israeli negotiations for U.S. secretaries of state, continued, “While I don’t oppose the core proposals from the Saudis and French, this plan is completely out of touch with today’s realities.”
These harsh realities include a recent Israeli ground assault on central Gaza City, displacing hundreds of thousands; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s firm declaration that “there will be no Palestinian state”; and strong opposition from the Trump administration, which has covertly urged allies against supporting the proposal.
During a visit to Jerusalem this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed any recognition of a Palestinian state as mere symbolism, arguing it would only embolden Hamas. He cautioned that a renewed push for Palestinian statehood might trigger an Israeli backlash, potentially leading to the annexation of the West Bank, a move advocated by some right-wing Israeli ministers.
Despite this resistance, Macron’s team interprets the pushback as evidence that both Israel and the United States are increasingly feeling the weight of international isolation.
From the outset, Mr. Macron has maintained that a robust political commitment to Palestinian statehood is the only path to a two-state peace, a necessary step to convince Hamas to disarm and ultimately bring stability to the region.
Macron’s recognition of a Palestinian state is deeply connected to a comprehensive 42-point “day after” plan, crafted with Saudi Arabia. This plan outlines “tangible, time-bound, and irreversible steps” toward a two-state solution, contingent upon a cease-fire.
Known as the “New York Declaration,” this plan received approval from 142 countries at the UN General Assembly this month.
Key practical measures include forming a “transitional administrative committee” to manage governance and establishing a UN-led stabilization force for security. French diplomats noted that the contributing nations for this force are still being determined.
The declaration explicitly condemns the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel and the forced displacement of Palestinians. It further demands the release of all Israeli hostages held by Hamas and insists that Hamas “must end its rule in Gaza and hand over its weapons.”
The fact that numerous Arab and Middle Eastern countries, some traditionally allied with Hamas, signed this document is viewed as a significant diplomatic breakthrough by Mr. Macron’s team.
However, similar to Macron’s “coalition of the willing” initiative for Ukraine’s postwar peace, the Gaza plan hinges on U.S. participation. It also demands cooperation from a resistant Israeli government and Hamas, which has yet to agree to disarm.
Rym Momtaz, editor-in-chief of the Strategic Europe blog at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, explained that the plan was developed with the firm belief that only the United States possesses the necessary leverage to halt the conflict, primarily due to Israel’s reliance on American weaponry.
Ms. Momtaz, an expert on French foreign policy, noted, “France and Saudi Arabia are offering the most practical and constructive assistance possible to help President Trump deliver on his promise of peace and foster regional normalization.”
While Momtaz considers the plan’s realistic approach a strength, she also identifies its “biggest weakness” in America’s current lack of engagement.
Former peace negotiator Mr. Miller suggested that the French and Saudis might be misinterpreting President Trump’s intentions.
“The crucial missing piece is Trump’s ability, resolve, and willingness to genuinely confront Benjamin Netanyahu,” he asserted. “Over the past nine months, I’ve seen no sign that Trump is prepared to exert pressure on Israel regarding Gaza and Hamas.”
For decades, the United States has officially supported a two-state solution. However, consecutive American administrations have consistently held that Palestinian statehood should emerge from comprehensive peace negotiations between Israel and Palestinians, rather than through unilateral declarations or UN resolutions.
Last year, the U.S. blocked a Palestinian attempt to gain full UN member state recognition in the Security Council. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, then U.S. Ambassador to the UN, justified the action by stating, “Palestinians lack control over a substantial part of their proposed state, which is currently governed by a terrorist organization,” referring to Hamas.
The UN has consistently championed the concept of a Palestinian state, a principle that has been central to peace negotiations for decades. The 1993 Oslo Accords between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization outlined a path to Palestinian self-determination, but this vision was ultimately thwarted by escalating violence and deep-seated mistrust.
In 2006, Hamas, an organization that rejects Israel’s right to exist, won the Palestinian legislative elections and subsequently took control of Gaza. Years later, the region was rocked by the October 7 attack, in which Hamas militants killed approximately 1,200 people in Israel and abducted 250 hostages.
Israel’s subsequent war against Hamas has caused widespread devastation, severe hunger, and the deaths of around 65,000 people in Gaza, according to Gazan health officials who do not differentiate between civilian and combatant casualties.
Max Rodenbeck, Israel-Palestine project director for the International Crisis Group in London, highlighted that recognizing a Palestinian state before a peace process is finalized reverses the conventional diplomatic approach.
“The real issue is on the ground,” he stated, “the prospective state is diminishing by the minute. Since October 7, Israeli settlers have claimed new territory in the West Bank roughly three times the size of Gaza.”
Over 140 nations worldwide, including Spain, Ireland, and Norway last year, have already extended recognition to a Palestinian state.
France’s unique position stems from its deep emotional and historical ties to Israel, coupled with its significant diplomatic standing. As the home to Western Europe’s largest Jewish and Muslim populations, and as the sole nuclear power and permanent Security Council member within the European Union, its actions carry particular weight.
Ms. Momtaz explained that France’s symbolic recognition of Palestine was crucial for Arab states, providing Mr. Macron with leverage to secure their commitments to the plan.
These commitments included public statements from Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who urged Hamas—his staunch rival—to disarm, immediately release all hostages, and withdraw from Gaza.
The Palestinian leader also pledged to hold elections in 2026 and to enact reforms within the Palestinian Authority, which currently governs parts of the West Bank.
Additionally, he committed to removing hate speech and incitement from the Palestinian education curriculum—a critical concern for many Israelis, according to Dahlia Scheindlin, a political analyst and public opinion expert long involved in Israeli peace campaigns.
Scheindlin described the plan as “valuable,” suggesting that certain aspects could be pursued by individual member states, potentially altering bilateral relations and serving as a guide for future action.
Following his announcement on Monday, Mr. Macron plans to meet with UN partners to further develop the plan. His team hopes that concerted pressure from Arab nations might compel the American president to engage.
Yet, even proponents of the plan acknowledge its slim chances of success.
Gérard Araud, a former French ambassador to Israel, the United States, and the United Nations, somberly described the initiative as “a gesture of despair.” He added, “We are heading toward a disaster; we are trying to stop it.”