France finds itself at a pivotal moment as Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, who recently took office, is working against a critical deadline to de-escalate the nation’s political crisis and prevent the possibility of new parliamentary elections. Lecornu has been tasked with presenting a plan for the country’s stability by Wednesday evening, engaging in crucial discussions with various political parties.
The Prime Minister’s efforts come amidst a period of significant political flux, with France having seen three Prime Ministers depart within the last year. Lecornu, like his predecessors, has been unable to pass a budget that addresses the government’s deficit and the nation’s public debt.
Speaking ahead of further talks, Lecornu expressed optimism, noting a “willingness” among political parties to pass a budget before the year’s end. He stated that this shared intent is fostering progress and convergence, making the prospect of dissolving parliament seem less likely. This sentiment was shared following discussions with Socialist leaders, with Lecornu scheduled for a televised address to detail the outcome of his negotiations.
The success of Lecornu’s efforts may hinge on securing a political agreement that could shield a new government from a vote of no confidence. Observers suggest that Lecornu’s televised appearance indicates President Emmanuel Macron will likely not make a separate address.
Lecornu’s resignation on Monday plunged France into renewed political uncertainty, occurring just 18 months before the conclusion of Macron’s second presidential term. The snap elections called by Macron in mid-2024 resulted in a hung parliament and a series of minority governments, exacerbating the current instability. Lecornu’s tenure as Prime Minister was notably brief, lasting only 26 days before his government’s collapse, a situation exacerbated by criticism from Bruno Retailleau, the leader of the conservative Republicans.
Further complicating matters, Socialist leader Olivier Faure has indicated that his party is unlikely to join a new government, emphasizing that the current budget proposal is not one they can support. While the Socialists might not actively seek to topple a new administration, opposition parties like the National Rally and the radical left are expected to do so. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, currently leading in polls, has urged President Macron to seriously consider dissolving parliament and holding new elections.
Discussions have also explored the possibility of suspending controversial pension reforms, which raised the retirement age. However, Finance Minister Roland Lescure cautioned that such a move would incur substantial financial costs for France. The nation’s public debt currently stands at nearly 114% of its GDP, with the budget deficit projected to reach 5.4% this year.
In the absence of Socialist support, Lecornu’s primary focus is on forming a centrist coalition government with the Republicans, potentially through a “common platform.” The Republicans have, however, stated their unwillingness to join a left-led government, leaving their potential involvement with the Macronists uncertain.
The President of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, has expressed skepticism about dissolving parliament, viewing it as unlikely to resolve the core issues. She also warned of severe consequences should a budget agreement not be reached soon.
Lecornu reiterated the importance of reducing the budget deficit to below 5% of GDP, citing its critical role in France’s international credibility and borrowing capacity. He also highlighted the need for consensus on the future of New Caledonia, France’s South Pacific territory, which requires financial aid following recent unrest. The planned referendum and subsequent provincial elections have been disrupted by Lecornu’s resignation.