Following a significant escalation of tensions, Afghanistan and Pakistan have jointly declared a cease-fire, offering a much-needed pause in the most severe cross-border hostilities seen in years.
For almost two weeks, both nations engaged in a series of military confrontations that tragically resulted in dozens of deaths and hundreds of injuries, pushing them dangerously close to an all-out conflict.
Mediated by Qatar and Turkey, officials from Afghanistan and Pakistan convened in Doha on Saturday, pledging to ease tensions and reconvene later this month. Pakistan’s defense minister, Khawaja Asif, publicly stated, “Terrorism from Afghanistan on Pakistan’s soil will be stopped immediately.”
Zabiullah Mujahid, spokesman for the Afghan Taliban, confirmed on social media that “Neither country will undertake any hostile actions against the other.” Notably, no joint statement was issued following their meeting.
Taliban security forces are seen inspecting a destroyed vehicle in Kandahar Province, Afghanistan, a day after cross-border clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Despite this temporary calm, analysts and former diplomats highlight Pakistan’s persistent challenge with the Taliban. They warn that the underlying issues are incredibly complex and unlikely to be resolved without decisive actions that neither nation has yet demonstrated a willingness to implement.
Defense ministers from Afghanistan and Pakistan formalize a cease-fire agreement in Doha, Qatar, as captured in an image released by Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. At the heart of this conflict lies the ongoing onslaught of attacks within Pakistan by the terrorist organization Tehrik-i-Taliban. Pakistan has voiced strong concerns that the Afghan Taliban government is sheltering this group and has shown little initiative to curb its operations.
While the Afghan Taliban government consistently denies harboring militant groups, attacks by the Tehrik-i-Taliban (T.T.P.) have drastically increased since the Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan in 2021. United Nations experts have reported that T.T.P. leaders receive financial backing from the Taliban government, and their fighters undergo training in Afghanistan, often with the support of Al Qaeda.
The recent crisis flared up this month following twin explosions in central Kabul and an airstrike in eastern Afghanistan, occurring shortly after 11 Pakistani soldiers were killed in a T.T.P. assault. Afghanistan attributed these strikes to Pakistan, a claim Pakistan neither affirmed nor refuted, prompting the Taliban government to launch retaliatory cross-border raids that left at least 23 Pakistani soldiers dead.
Last Wednesday, Pakistan responded with cross-border attacks and airstrikes targeting Kabul and Kandahar, Afghanistan’s two most populous cities. A Pakistani military official, speaking anonymously, stated these airstrikes focused on militant groups, including the Pakistani Taliban. Shortly after these intense exchanges, both nations agreed to an initial 48-hour cease-fire to de-escalate the volatile situation.
However, the peace was brief. After the initial cease-fire ended on Friday, Pakistan conducted further airstrikes, which Afghanistan claimed resulted in the deaths of several cricket players. Pakistan refuted these civilian casualty reports, asserting that only militants were targeted.
Mourners attend a funeral in Paktika province, eastern Afghanistan, after cross-border strikes between Pakistan and Afghanistan on Saturday. According to Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, “There appears to be a new normal where every militant attack on Pakistani security forces is now being met with retaliation from Pakistan in Afghanistan.” He added that “Pakistan lost patience and concluded that enough is enough.”
While Pakistan played a role in the formation of the Taliban in the early 1990s and initially welcomed their return to power in Afghanistan in 2021, relations have since deteriorated. Pakistan’s efforts to address the issue of the Pakistani Taliban with Afghanistan have largely been unsuccessful.
This complex relationship stems from the Afghan Taliban’s perspective: they do not view the T.T.P. as a terrorist organization. Instead, they consider the group so intrinsically linked to their own identity and ideology that any attempt to dismantle or significantly restrain them would fundamentally undermine their own standing.
During the two-decade conflict against U.S. and NATO forces, the T.T.P. supplied vital recruits to the Afghan Taliban. Their original leader in the 2000s was linked to the Haqqani network, a group notorious for suicide attacks during the war, and whose current leader serves as Afghanistan’s interior minister. The T.T.P. has also pledged allegiance to Afghanistan’s supreme leader, Sheikh Haibatullah Akhundzada. Experts suggest that any move by the Taliban to suppress the T.T.P. could inadvertently push its fighters toward the Islamic State, an organization that has actively targeted the Taliban government itself.
Asif Durrani, Pakistan’s former special representative for Afghanistan, remarked, “The Taliban could at least disarm the T.T.P., but they won’t because they are best cousins.” He added, “Pakistan has now realized that it had a misplaced perception about the Taliban and their potential role to stabilize things in Afghanistan, and with Pakistan.”
Pakistan has consistently withheld official recognition of the Taliban as Afghanistan’s legitimate government. During the peak of the recent crisis, Islamabad’s government expressed a desire that “one day the people of Afghanistan will be free and live under a truly representative and popular government.”
Smoke plumes ascend over Kabul following explosions that occurred on Wednesday. Furthermore, Afghanistan has historically refused to acknowledge the existing border with Pakistan, contending that this demarcation, a legacy of the British Empire, unfairly divides communities.
These escalating tensions have also attracted the attention and involvement of various other regional powers.
Notably, the initial attacks in Kabul and eastern Afghanistan coincided with a visit by Afghanistan’s foreign minister to India, a long-standing rival of Pakistan, aimed at bolstering bilateral relations.
Pakistan has accused India of supporting armed factions in Afghanistan to destabilize the region. In a geopolitical shift, Pakistan has recently improved ties with the Trump administration, while Russia became the first nation to formally recognize the Taliban as Afghanistan’s governing authority earlier this year. China, sharing borders with both countries, has attempted mediation, yet a trilateral summit in Kabul this summer concluded without a consensus on security matters. Turkey, possessing strong diplomatic ties with both the Pakistani government and the Taliban, has increasingly stepped into a mediating role.
Iftikhar Firdous, an expert on armed groups from the Pakistan-based research group The Khorasan Diary, observed, “There is too much distrust between the two, and too many external actors now, for this to be resolved in a perennial way.”
Both Afghanistan and Pakistan are home to populations sharing profound ethnic and linguistic connections, particularly the Pashto-speaking communities, and common religious bonds, as both are predominantly Sunni Muslim nations. Afghanistan’s economy, already struggling from various crises, heavily depends on Pakistan, which handles approximately 40 percent of Afghan exports.
Afghan refugees are seen returning at the Torkham border crossing between Pakistan and Afghanistan last month. Soon after the cease-fire announcement on Sunday, Mr. Mujahid, the Afghan Taliban spokesman, affirmed Afghanistan’s pledge not to support groups conducting attacks against the Pakistani government.
However, several current and former diplomats from Afghanistan and Western nations, including Mr. Durrani, suggest that the Afghan Taliban probably lack either the desire or the capability to effectively control the Pakistani Taliban.
Michael Kugelman, the Asia Pacific Foundation analyst, reiterated: “There’s a pattern of the Afghan Taliban not moving against the T.T.P. — not expelling them, not using military force against them or not compelling them to do certain things.” He concluded this is “because the Taliban never turns on its closest militant allies.”
Both governments are slated to meet again in Istanbul this Saturday to finalize a more comprehensive agreement.