Former US President Donald Trump has recently faced significant criticism from the medical community for his unsubstantiated claims about the link between a common painkiller, widely known as paracetamol outside the US, and the rise in autism diagnoses.
During a press conference, Trump suggested that healthcare professionals would soon advise against the use of this painkiller for pregnant women. This assertion has been met with strong disapproval from leading health organizations.
The American College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists described the announcement as “unsettling” and lacking a basis in “reliable data.” Similarly, the UK’s National Autism Society labeled Trump’s statement as “dangerous, it’s anti-science and it’s irresponsible.” This has prompted BBC Verify to scrutinize the specific claims made by Trump and his Health Secretary, Robert F Kennedy Jr.
Is Trump correct that US autism diagnoses are rising?
President Trump cited statistics suggesting a dramatic increase in autism diagnoses in the US over the past two decades. He claimed that the incidence has escalated from approximately “one in 10,000… probably 18 years ago” to “one in 31” by 2025.
While the figure of one in 31 is accurate, reflecting data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in 2022 among eight-year-olds across 16 US states, the rate of increase is not as stark as Trump implied. In 2006, the CDC estimated the autism rate to be 1 in 110, and by 2008, it was 1 in 88. Experts generally attribute the rise in reported cases to improved diagnostic methods, greater awareness, and increased testing, rather than an actual surge in the condition’s prevalence.
Trump also highlighted California as having a more severe autism problem than other states. The CDC’s data for 2022 did show approximately 1 in 12 eight-year-old boys in California had autism, the highest rate in the surveyed states. However, the CDC noted that California’s higher identification rate may be due to a state-funded initiative that trained pediatricians to screen and refer children for early assessment.
Should the MMR vaccine be taken separately?
Another claim made by Trump concerned the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine, suggesting that the individual vaccines should be administered separately rather than as a combined shot, due to a potential “problem” with the combination.
Health experts are concerned that such unfounded claims could lead parents to avoid vaccinating their children, potentially causing a resurgence of preventable diseases like measles. The initial assertion linking the MMR vaccine to autism, popularized by a 1998 paper in The Lancet by Andrew Wakefield, has been thoroughly discredited. Wakefield was later found to have financial conflicts of interest and falsified his research, leading to the paper’s retraction and his disqualification by the UK’s General Medical Council.
Numerous subsequent studies have found no evidence of a link between the MMR vaccine and autism. A comprehensive 2019 Danish study involving over 650,000 children further reinforced this conclusion.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends the standard childhood immunization schedule, which includes two doses of the MMR vaccine, typically administered between 12-15 months and four to six years of age.
Are autism rates lower among Amish people?
Trump also stated that the Amish community in the US experiences “virtually no autism.” He suggested, without providing evidence, that this might be due to their limited use of Tylenol.
Research on autism prevalence within the Amish community is limited. Many Amish children complete their formal education after the eighth grade, which may affect their access to diagnoses typically identified through school systems. While some studies, like one from 2010, reported autism in approximately 1 in 271 Amish children, this research is not exhaustive, and the community’s general avoidance of modern pharmaceuticals doesn’t necessarily correlate with a lack of autism cases.
Experts suggest that reported low rates do not equate to absence and that factors like diagnostic accessibility and willingness to seek diagnosis play a significant role.
Similarly, Trump’s claim about low autism rates in Cuba, linked to limited Tylenol availability, lacks supporting data. The World Health Organization (WHO) acknowledges that the prevalence of autism in many lower and middle-income countries remains largely unknown.
Trump has a history of expressing concerns about autism rates, dating back to 2007 when he first publicly speculated about a vaccine-autism link. His interest in Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s work on vaccine safety has been noted since at least 2017.
Despite previous support for vaccine campaigns, including during a 2019 measles outbreak and his administration’s role in the rapid development of Covid-19 vaccines, Trump’s recent statements on autism have reignited concerns about the spread of misinformation.
Additional reporting: Joshua Cheetham