A wave of unexplained drone sightings near critical infrastructure, such as major airports and military bases across Europe, has sparked significant alarm. Countries like Denmark, Germany, and Norway have experienced widespread flight disruptions, prompting urgent questions about regional security.
The exact nature of these incidents remains shrouded in mystery. Authorities are still unsure if these episodes are connected, who is orchestrating them, or what their ultimate purpose might be. Crucially, no drones have been intercepted, nor has any physical damage been reported, adding to the perplexing situation.
Nevertheless, a palpable sense of unease lingers across the continent as nations grapple with this new, elusive threat. Here’s a breakdown of what we currently understand about these unsettling aerial incursions:
What’s Been Happening and Where?
Even prior to these recent incidents, European nations were already operating under heightened alert, particularly due to fears that Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine could escalate further into Eastern Europe. In the preceding month, there were reports of Russian drones encroaching on Polish and Romanian airspace, alongside fighter jets violating Estonian airspace.
The immediate impact of this new threat became clear in late September when Danish authorities temporarily grounded all flights at Copenhagen Airport following drone reports. On the very same day, Oslo Airport faced a similar closure, necessitating the diversion of flights across Norway.
The pattern continued: days later, more Danish airports experienced temporary flight suspensions due to unidentified drones. Early October saw Munich Airport halt operations, and Oslo Airport once again briefly suspended flights after additional drone sightings, highlighting the persistent and widespread nature of the issue.
Who is Behind These Incidents?
The sudden surge in these sightings has inevitably led to fears of a coordinated campaign, possibly aimed at destabilizing NATO member states. While direct evidence remains elusive, several European leaders have hinted at, or outright accused, Russia of involvement.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz openly stated his suspicion that “a significant portion of it is probably controlled from Russia.” Denmark’s Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, labeled the drone incidents a “serious attack” and condemned Russia’s “destructive role” in Europe, though she stopped short of direct attribution. Interestingly, Denmark’s defense minister suggested the drones were likely operated by a “professional actor” but acknowledged a lack of definitive evidence linking them to Russia.
Adding to the concern, drones have also been observed near military installations in both Denmark and other affected nations. Denmark’s Defense Intelligence Service has previously warned that Russia is actively engaged in “hybrid warfare against NATO and the West,” utilizing tactics designed to test defenses and identify vulnerabilities.
Russian President Vladimir V. Putin has consistently denied any responsibility for the drone incidents. Meanwhile, Russia’s former president, Dmitri Medvedev, provocatively suggested that it was “useful for Europeans to experience the dangers of war firsthand,” seemingly dismissing the gravity of the accusations with a cynical tone.
How is Europe Responding to the Threat?
In response to the growing threat, the European Union has intensified calls for a “drone wall” – an ambitious defense system comprising sensors and weapons designed to detect, track, and intercept uncrewed aircraft. However, the critical issue of funding remains unresolved, and a clear timeline for the project’s completion is yet to be established.
Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s chief diplomat, recently visited Kyiv and highlighted that Europe has “a lot to learn” from Ukraine’s extensive experience in countering drone attacks. Ukraine has developed a sophisticated defense system utilizing sensors, various drones, and advanced shielding technologies to protect against Russian incursions, and is now sharing these vital techniques with its European allies.
According to Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based Bruegel research institute, Europe’s existing drone detection systems are woefully inadequate. He noted that in Copenhagen last month, drones were initially spotted by ordinary citizens, not advanced surveillance equipment. Similarly, drones over Oslo on October 6th were reported by an approaching pilot, further underscoring the reliance on human observation rather than specialized technology.
“What this entire situation reveals,” Mr. Kirkegaard stated, “is that Europe is entirely unprepared for these specific types of attacks or aerial incursions.”
In response, Germany and Britain have recently announced measures to empower security and law enforcement officials to shoot down unauthorized drones under extreme circumstances. However, experts express concern that these officials currently lack the necessary equipment and comprehensive training to effectively implement such protocols.
Assessing the Severity of the Risk
The widespread availability and affordability of drones make them a particularly concerning threat, as they are relatively easy for almost anyone to acquire and operate. Ian Lesser, director of the German Marshall Fund research institute’s Brussels office, drew parallels to cyberattacks, noting that even minor actors can leverage these tools to inflict significant disruption.
For European governments, the pressing challenge is to develop rapid and economically viable solutions to mitigate this evolving risk, as highlighted by Lesser.
The United States has also grappled with alarming drone sightings, including incidents in New Jersey last year. However, U.S. officials subsequently clarified that most of these were legitimate drones or aircraft operating with proper authorization from the Federal Aviation Administration.
While some U.S. airports possess drone detection capabilities, their ability to respond is often constrained. Keith Jeffries, a former federal security director at Los Angeles International Airport and a consultant at K2 Consulting, emphasized this limitation: “It’s one thing if we have detection capability, but the challenge is having the authority to take them out of the sky.”
What Happens if Your Flight is Disrupted?
Passengers experiencing delays or cancellations due to reported drone sightings should be aware that compensation is unlikely. Such disruptions are generally classified as “extraordinary circumstances,” which typically exempt airlines from paying out passenger compensation.
(Reporting by Jenny Gross from London; Jeanna Smialek contributed reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine.)