In a surprising turn during Wednesday’s national elections, Dutch citizens delivered a clear message to the far-right party that had previously plunged the country into months of political instability. Voters unexpectedly rallied behind a center-left party, embracing its platform of stability and optimism.
This swift shift in public sentiment is poised to bring a more centrist government to power in the Netherlands, a development that speaks volumes not only about the nation’s political landscape but also about the broader trajectory of populism across Europe.
The results demonstrate that the far-right, even in regions where its ascent seemed inevitable, can encounter significant resistance and setbacks.
“We once thought it was almost a given that the radical right would continue to grow, that they were invincible,” remarked Kristof Jacobs, a political scientist at Radboud University, located near the German border. “It turns out they’re not quite so bulletproof.”
Jacobs observed that far-right parties can indeed be penalized by voters when they fail to fulfill their promises. He noted that it previously appeared as though such parties were immune to criticism, with public attention primarily focused on their rhetoric.
Official counts revealed Thursday that Geert Wilders’s far-right Party for Freedom, which had achieved a landslide victory in 2023, shed 11 seats in the Dutch House of Representatives. The party is now expected to be tied with the center-left Democrats 66 (D66) as the largest bloc in parliament.
This election outcome served as a strong reprimand for Wilders’s party, which had secured a commanding lead in 2023. Wilders, a well-known populist figure with strong anti-Islam sentiments, triggered this very election in June by withdrawing his party from the ruling coalition, forcing an early vote.
Considering the substantial losses for Wilders’s party and the significant gains for the center-left, the upcoming governing coalition is widely anticipated to be led by more moderate political voices.
However, the electorate did not abandon the far-right completely. The Party for Freedom is expected to be tied for the most seats, as confirmed by the Dutch newswire ANP’s official count, and several smaller, ideologically aligned parties absorbed many of the seats that Wilders’s party relinquished.
In recent years, Dutch politics, particularly with the rise of the Party for Freedom, has served as a microcosm of a larger European political phenomenon. Populist far-right movements have firmly established themselves across the continent, with groups like France’s National Rally, Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD), and Britain’s Reform UK frequently leading in opinion polls.
Despite their growing popularity, these parties have had varied success in actually securing governing power. Germany’s far-right, for instance, remains excluded from government. While Spain’s Vox party is gaining traction, it’s far from a dominant force. Similarly, the right in Britain has seen fluctuating support, appearing to be gaining momentum once more.
For the wider European context, the Dutch election suggests that provocative rhetoric alone might not be sufficient to maintain voter loyalty. Wilders’s party had promised drastic measures like halting asylum, dismantling climate regulations, and even a referendum on leaving the European Union. However, the Party for Freedom failed to garner the necessary support to enact these extreme positions, and its role in a frequently dysfunctional coalition ultimately led to its collapse.
“I believe the Netherlands has simply had enough,” remarked René Hendriks, a volunteer at a polling station in The Hague.
Democrats 66, founded in the year from which it takes its name, presented a political platform that served as a direct counterpoint to far-right ideologies.
Their campaign slogan, “it can be done” — enthusiastically chanted by supporters at a victory celebration on Wednesday evening — clearly resonated with the spirit of Barack Obama’s 2008 ‘yes we can’ message.
Rob Jetten, the leader of D66, championed a relentlessly optimistic campaign, a stark contrast to Wilders’s often pessimistic outlook, as noted by political scientist Mr. Jacobs.
D66’s agenda included ambitious plans, such as constructing ten new cities to address the nation’s critical housing shortage—a top concern for many voters. The party also championed green energy initiatives, embraced Artificial Intelligence, and, while advocating for the removal of migrant criminals, stressed the importance of “well-thought-out and effective policies, rather than using strong language” in immigration debates.
In contrast to the 62-year-old veteran politician Mr. Wilders, D66 is led by the younger, less experienced Rob Jetten. At 38, Jetten, who assumed party leadership in 2023, is a strong contender to become the Netherlands’ first openly gay prime minister.
Sarah de Lange, a political scientist at Leiden University, attributed part of their success to a well-executed campaign, highlighting Jetten’s strong performance in televised debates.
Many also viewed D66 as offering a viable path to forming a stable and lasting coalition government.
“For a segment of the electorate, restoring stability was a paramount concern,” she added.
Conversely, for numerous citizens, Mr. Wilders appeared to represent the very antithesis of stability.
A political provocateur recognized for his anti-Islam and anti-Europe positions, Mr. Wilders has consistently advocated extreme policies, including calls to halt all immigration from Muslim-majority countries and completely end asylum.
However, once Wilders’s party joined the government, implementing these policies proved challenging within a coalition largely composed of more moderate right-wing parties.
Wilders failed to secure the prime ministership due to a lack of support from other lawmakers. This past summer, he abruptly pulled his party from the governing coalition after his extreme migration plan was not adopted, leading to the government’s collapse in under a year.
He subsequently campaigned on these same contentious proposals.
Recognizing the insurmountable difficulties of governing with Wilders’s party, leaders from other major political groups effectively isolated it, declaring before Wednesday’s election that they would not form a new coalition with the Party for Freedom.
Experts suggest this stance likely encouraged voters to support parties with a more realistic path to joining a governing coalition.
Furthermore, after enduring months of political instability, “there is a palpable yearning for centrist politics,” according to Henk van der Kolk, a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam.
Natasja Thole-van Son, a Dutch railway conductor, stated that her vote for Mr. Jetten in Rotterdam on Wednesday was driven by concerns over housing policy and a desire for more mature governmental conduct, especially after a period marked by considerable bickering and minimal progress.
“My hope is also that politicians will begin to act more responsibly,” she commented. “Their behavior over the past two years has been genuinely frustrating, akin to a kindergarten classroom.”
Although Wednesday’s election marked a clear setback for the Party for Freedom, it hardly signaled the demise of Dutch populism. Wilders’s party is still projected to share the position as the largest, and another far-right group, JA21, also secured additional seats in the House of Representatives.
Concurrently, left-leaning parties saw a decrease in support as voters gravitated towards the political center.
“We were certainly not erased from the political landscape,” Mr. Wilders asserted.
This presents a nuanced lesson for the rest of Europe: while far-right populism can stumble, it is clearly not on the verge of disappearing.