Financial analysts predict a dynamic week ahead for the stock market, heavily influenced by the recently increased U.S. H-1B visa application fee, ongoing trade discussions, and a domestic reduction in GST rates. Additionally, investors will be keenly observing global equity market trends for further direction.
The week kicks off with markets responding to the U.S.’s new annual H-1B visa fee of $100,000, announced last Friday. According to Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, this substantial increase could add pressure on India’s IT services exporters, who are already navigating tariff challenges, especially as crucial trade negotiations continue. Mishra also noted that worldwide, market participants will be carefully watching how U.S. markets react following the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
This significant increase in the H-1B visa application fee to $100,000 (approximately ₹88 lakh) poses a considerable challenge for India’s $285-billion IT sector, particularly in its primary outsourcing market, the U.S. Nasscom, the industry’s leading association, has cautioned that this move could severely disrupt business continuity for onshore projects.
Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart, elaborated that this fee hike is likely to drive up costs for U.S. clients and dampen demand for skilled Indian tech professionals. This, in turn, could directly affect the revenue outlook for major Indian IT companies like TCS, Infosys, and Wipro. Domestically, traders will also be closely monitoring the Indian rupee’s performance and fluctuations in crude oil prices, as these are crucial factors influencing Indian stock performance.
Adding to the week’s critical events, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal is scheduled to lead an official delegation to the U.S. on September 22 for trade discussions, according to a Saturday statement. The objective of this delegation is to advance discussions with U.S. counterparts, aiming for a swift conclusion of a mutually beneficial trade agreement. Positive progress was made during the previous visit of U.S. Trade Representative officials to India on September 16, where various aspects of the trade deal were discussed, leading to a decision to accelerate efforts towards an agreement.
In exciting news for consumers, a wide array of goods and services, ranging from everyday kitchen essentials and electronics to medicines, equipment, and automobiles, are set to become more affordable starting Monday. This comes as reduced GST rates on approximately 375 items take effect. This consumer-friendly decision by the GST Council, which includes both central and state representatives, will see tax rates on these goods and services lowered from September 22, coinciding with the auspicious start of Navaratri.
Beyond these factors, markets will also be attentive to the trading patterns of foreign investors. Notably, on Friday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) acquired equities valued at ₹390.74 crore, as per exchange data.
From a global perspective, attention will now turn to crucial U.S. macroeconomic releases, such as GDP figures, manufacturing and services PMI, and the PCE Price Index. Vikram Kasat, Head – Advisory, PL Capital, highlighted that with India entering its festive season, markets will be keenly observing the impact of recent GST rate reductions, shifts in consumer demand, and the consistent flow of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) which have helped maintain resilience in the primary market amidst global uncertainties.
Last week saw positive movements, with the BSE benchmark rising by 721.53 points (0.88%) and the Nifty gaining 213.05 points (0.84%).