For a long time, Chinese officials vehemently opposed American demands for TikTok’s Chinese parent company to sell its U.S. operations, calling it outright theft. However, Chinese state media are now celebrating a potential agreement as a “win-win.” It’s anticipated that China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, and former President Trump will discuss and approve this deal during a phone call on Friday.
This apparent shift in stance by China offers a strategic advantage. It provides the American president with a visible victory on an issue he deeply values – the preservation of TikTok, a widely popular video app he believes was instrumental in his re-election campaign and connecting with younger demographics. In return, Beijing secures valuable space for negotiation on its most pressing concerns: trade tariffs, technological advancements, and the delicate situation surrounding Taiwan.
According to Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, the TikTok situation is merely a smaller piece of a much larger puzzle. She suggests that if China can leverage these minor concessions to foster a more positive climate and improve U.S.-China relations, they would be keen to do so.
This TikTok agreement and the forthcoming phone conversation could lay the groundwork for a potential summit next month, marking the first face-to-face encounter between President Xi and former President Trump during the latter’s second term. While Beijing would ideally host Mr. Trump, an alternative could be a meeting on the fringes of an upcoming regional summit in South Korea.
[Image: President Donald Trump and China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, reaching out to shake hands.]
President Donald Trump reaching out to shake hands with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, during the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan in 2019.
It’s plausible that TikTok has always served as a bargaining tool for China. The future of the app in the U.S., currently seen as a national security risk, is a secondary concern when compared to Beijing’s more significant challenges, such as American export controls and tariffs that threaten to hinder China’s economic and technological progress.
Furthermore, TikTok’s core recommendation algorithm holds less strategic value for Chinese leadership today compared to five years ago, when concerns about the app first surfaced.
According to Dimitar Gueorguiev, director of Chinese studies at Syracuse University, TikTok has become an “expendable concession.” He explains that Chinese officials deliberately allowed the issue to linger for years, reserving it as a potential solution to ease pressure from Washington. A deal made now is less costly for Beijing than it would have been at the outset of negotiations, yet it still delivers the highest possible perception of compromise.
From Beijing’s perspective, this is the opportune moment to play the TikTok card. With its dominant control over critical minerals, China believes it possesses significant leverage to use in discussions with Mr. Trump. Notably, China processes almost 90 percent of the world’s rare earth metals, which are essential for manufacturing components in everything from cars and wind turbines to jets.
Li Daokui, a distinguished economist at Tsinghua University in Beijing, observed that “The Chinese side is considerably more experienced, tolerant, and tactical. They understand American desires and are well-versed in Trump’s unique negotiating approach.”
To encourage Mr. Trump, China might offer to increase its purchases of U.S. soybeans, a desire the former president has publicly expressed, or commit to buying more Boeing aircraft.
However, Beijing would need to swiftly deliver on any such commitments. It’s already late to place bids on this year’s soybean harvest, and Boeing’s manufacturing schedule is rapidly becoming fully booked. Moreover, China’s leaders face substantial risks when negotiating with an unpredictable figure like Mr. Trump.
Dr. Sun emphasized that Chinese officials recognize the necessity of a trade deal to facilitate Trump’s visit to China. They aim to ensure any agreement is irreversible, preventing a scenario where they offer significant concessions only for the U.S. to undermine them.
She added that while they cannot foresee if such a betrayal would occur again, they understand its occurrence would be deeply humiliating for the Chinese leader.
Despite these considerations, Mr. Xi is expected to approach Friday’s phone call with a sense of assurance. Rather than being isolated by U.S. pressure, he has effectively showcased Beijing’s extensive network of allies. Earlier this month, he oversaw a grand military parade in Beijing, prominently accompanied by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. Prior to that, he welcomed other prominent figures, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to a security summit in Tianjin.
[Image: President Xi Jinping flanked by President Vladimir Putin of Russia and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.]
Mr. Xi was flanked by President Vladimir Putin of Russia and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, at Tiananmen Square in Beijing in September.
The sight of Mr. Trump joining a procession of global leaders visiting Beijing to honor China’s most influential leader in decades would significantly enhance Mr. Xi’s domestic credibility, especially as officials work to revitalize the nation’s economy. A visit of this nature would also project an image of the U.S. president actively seeking China’s favor.
Ali Wyne, a senior research and advocacy adviser for U.S.-China relations at the International Crisis Group, stated, “China aims to demonstrate that the U.S. has a greater need for its cooperation.”
Crucially, a state visit offers Beijing the opportunity to meticulously manage public perception and prevent the sort of public rebuke from Mr. Trump that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky experienced at the White House in February.
Dr. Sun noted, “They are reluctant to risk their leader traveling to the U.S. only to be publicly criticized.”
[Image: President Trump sitting next to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a meeting.]
President Trump sitting next to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in the East Room of the White House, in February.
There’s been growing momentum toward a meeting. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have held discussions with their Chinese counterparts recently. For several months, Mr. Trump has also expressed a desire to meet the Chinese leader, whom he consistently refers to as a “good friend” and openly admires.
Beijing is expected to seek relief from tariffs that Mr. Trump imposed, citing China’s alleged failure to prevent fentanyl precursor chemicals from entering the U.S. Additionally, China aims for Washington to ease export restrictions on advanced microchips and reduce its backing of Taiwan, a territory Beijing asserts is its own.
Friday’s phone call presents an opportunity for both leaders to explore whether additional agreements can be reached, allowing each to declare diplomatic victories and thus justify a future summit.
Amanda Hsiao, China director for the Eurasia Group, a firm providing investor advice, noted that “This call will be pivotal in determining whether both sides are prepared for significant engagement or if they will opt for a less impactful interaction,” potentially on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea.
Chinese officials have indicated that a preliminary agreement reached in Madrid earlier this week with their U.S. counterparts extends beyond just TikTok. It encompasses reducing investment barriers and enhancing trade and economic cooperation – subjects that are also anticipated to be discussed during the phone call.
[Image: Chinese officials at a news conference on U.S.-China talks.]
A news conference with Chinese officials on the day of U.S.-China talks on trade, economic and national security issues, in Madrid in September.
Mr. Xi might also encourage Mr. Trump to forge his own direction, disregarding more aggressive voices within his administration whom the Chinese leader perceives as aiming to curb China’s influence. During their last phone conversation in June, Mr. Xi likened the U.S.-China relationship to a vast ship navigated by two strong helmsmen, cautioning Mr. Trump to “avoid various disruptions or even sabotage.”
Mr. Wyne from the International Crisis Group observed that “Significant disagreements exist between Trump and his advisors. China will probably attempt to investigate and leverage these differences.”
The mere fact that the two leaders are communicating suggests to some analysts that their relationship is stabilizing. However, the continuation of this trend will largely hinge on the outcome of their impending in-person meeting.
Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, commented, “Until then, we cannot definitively say this is a relatively stable and predictable relationship. I believe we are progressing in that direction, but the primary indicator will be the upcoming summit.”