As Czech citizens head to the polls, the nation faces a tense geopolitical climate marked by escalating security concerns in Europe and fears of Russian interference. The upcoming election sees Andrej Babis, a 71-year-old billionaire businessman and populist, widely tipped to become the next prime minister. Should he succeed, he would replace the current administration, which has strongly supported Ukraine and maintained a pro-Western stance.
However, Babis’s ascent may not be straightforward. It is anticipated that he will need to forge coalitions with smaller parties situated at the political extremes. The price for their support could be significant, potentially reshaping the Czech Republic’s foreign policy and its relationship with the European Union and NATO.
During a rally in Kladno, Babis assured his predominantly older supporters that he would not steer the country towards Russia. He emphasized his government’s past actions, such as expelling Russian diplomats following revelations of Russian intelligence involvement in a 2014 ammunition dump explosion in the Czech Republic. He also drew parallels to the UK’s post-Brexit challenges, dismissing any notion of the Czech Republic leaving the EU.
Babis’s political movement, ANO, draws significant inspiration from Donald Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ campaign, evident in their signature red caps emblazoned with “Strong Czechia.” Despite this, current polling suggests that ANO is unlikely to secure an outright majority. This scenario would necessitate cooperation with fringe parties like the far-right SPD, the anti-Green-Deal Motorists, and a group called “Enough!” which includes rebranded communists and former social democrats.
Some of these potential coalition partners have openly advocated for referendums on leaving both the EU and NATO. While ANO insists such radical moves are off the table, expressing a desire to reform rather than dismantle the EU, the potential for political instability remains a concern for many. Security analysts warn that the influence of pro-Russian parties could lead to a shift away from supporting Ukraine, impacting critical initiatives like Czech ammunition supplies to Kyiv.
Younger Czechs, like 19-year-old political science student Ondrej Kapralek, express worry about their country potentially emulating the illiberal paths taken by Slovakia and Hungary. He stresses the importance of national security, economic stability, and a clear vision for the future, expressing a desire for a government that prioritizes these for the younger generation.
The outcome of this election could significantly alter the Czech Republic’s foreign policy direction, potentially challenging its alliances and its role within the broader European landscape.