Under immense international pressure to end the devastating war in Gaza, representatives from Israel and Hamas are scheduled to meet on Monday with mediators in Egypt. Their agenda: to deliberate a comprehensive peace plan put forth by former President Trump just last week.
However, many significant issues still need to be resolved.
These indirect discussions between Israel and Hamas, facilitated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, are expected to concentrate on two primary elements of the proposed 20-point framework unveiled by Mr. Trump. These include the exchange of Israeli-held Palestinians for captives seized during the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack that ignited the conflict, and a staged withdrawal of Israeli forces from specific areas of Gaza.
Israel estimates that approximately 20 hostages remain alive in Gaza and also seeks the recovery of the remains of about 25 others. Speaking on Sunday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated to Fox News that Hamas had “agreed to the president’s hostage release framework.”
According to this framework, the release of hostages would be reciprocated by the release of 250 Palestinian prisoners currently serving life sentences, alongside 1,700 Gazans detained by Israel during the war. Furthermore, for each hostage whose remains are returned, Israel would release the remains of 15 Gazans.
Experts, however, suggest that the plan’s stipulation for a 72-hour release window following Israel’s agreement would be logistically challenging. Moreover, the two parties have yet to finalize which specific Palestinian prisoners would be part of the exchange.
These are merely a few of the complexities awaiting resolution.
While Hamas expressed its willingness to release the hostages on Friday, the group has not yet addressed other major tenets of the American peace initiative, particularly those it has previously resisted. For instance, the proposal demands that Hamas disarm and relinquish any role in governing Gaza — core Israeli demands that Hamas has historically rejected.
Uncertainties also surround the planned withdrawal of Israeli forces from their positions within Gaza.
In a social media message on Saturday, Mr. Trump asserted that Israel had already consented to an initial withdrawal line within Gaza for the first phase of the agreement.
“When Hamas confirms, the Ceasefire will be IMMEDIATELY effective, the Hostages and Prisoner Exchange will begin, and we will create the conditions for the next phase of withdrawal,” he declared.
Yet, Hamas may still seek to negotiate the precise details of these withdrawal lines.
Previous peace discussions saw Hamas agreeing to Israeli troops receding into a buffer zone near Gaza’s border. However, Mr. Trump’s current plan positions Israeli forces deeper within Gaza, prompting signals from Hamas that it might object to these particular terms.
During a speech to Israelis over the weekend, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu framed the Trump plan as a triumph. He credited his strategy of sustained military pressure on Hamas, despite global condemnation, along with diplomatic efforts, for creating the conditions for a potential deal to end the war.
Members of Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right governing coalition have consistently opposed a peace deal and have threatened to collapse his government if he agrees to one. While the prime minister has attempted to appease these factions, he faces considerable pressure from many Israelis who yearn for a hostage deal and an end to the conflict, as well as from the international community, notably Mr. Trump.
On Saturday, the American president shared images on his social media platform depicting Israelis rallying in Tel Aviv for a hostage deal. He offered no accompanying comments, allowing the visuals to convey their powerful message.
Defying Mr. Trump appears to be an increasingly difficult option, even for the typically unyielding Mr. Netanyahu. By Saturday, Israeli military actions were reportedly confined to defensive operations and responses to immediate threats, according to Israeli officials.
Hamas, too, finds itself under mounting pressure to bring the war to an end.
Many Palestinians in Gaza view the Trump proposal as their last glimmer of hope following nearly two years of extreme hardship and recurrent displacement. Vast areas of Gaza lie in ruins, tens of thousands of Palestinians, including thousands of children, have been killed, and Mr. Trump has warned that Israel would have a clear mandate to eliminate Hamas if the group fails to agree to the deal.
Mr. Trump publicly demanded on social media that Israel halt its bombing campaigns in Gaza to facilitate the progression of the agreement with Hamas. In response, the Israeli military reportedly instructed its forces to prioritize defensive measures, thereby scaling back offensive operations in the Gaza Strip, according to Israeli officials.
Despite these developments, fighting on the ground has unfortunately persisted. The Israeli military reported launching multiple attacks on Sunday against what it identified as militants posing threats to troops. Emergency responders in Gaza stated that they were unable to access some of those killed due to active combat zones.
Israel and Hamas have engaged in intermittent indirect talks throughout the war, with negotiations frequently collapsing. Mr. Rubio acknowledged on Sunday that the conflict was far from over and much work remained, but he expressed optimism that this round of talks could yield a different outcome.
“What gives you hope here is that at least there is now a framework for how all this can come to an end,” he stated.