Every day, billions of cups of coffee are enjoyed worldwide, and this thirst for the stimulating beverage continues to grow. To meet this ever-increasing demand, forests globally are being cleared at an alarming rate to make way for new coffee plantations. However, this aggressive expansion comes with a profound irony: the destruction of these vital forest ecosystems is actively jeopardizing coffee’s long-term survival by disrupting rainfall patterns, according to a recent investigation by Coffee Watch, a prominent industry watchdog.
Published on Wednesday, Coffee Watch’s findings meticulously mapped deforestation across Brazil’s crucial southeastern coffee-growing region. They then correlated these areas with observed changes in rainfall and instances of crop failure. The conclusion was stark: where local forests were razed for coffee farms, rainfall significantly decreased. This, in turn, led to widespread crop failures, diminished yields, and ultimately, higher prices for consumers worldwide.
Etelle Higonnet, the director of Coffee Watch, minced no words: ‘The ecologically destructive methods we employ to cultivate coffee are on a direct path to ensuring we will no longer have coffee to enjoy.’
An image shows a person harvesting coffee beans in Alfenas, Brazil, in July. Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer.
‘Deforestation for coffee cultivation is effectively killing the rains, which is, in turn, killing the coffee itself,’ Higonnet explained in an interview. She cautioned that if these trends persist, farmers will face even lower yields, even as more precious forest land is sacrificed for agricultural expansion.
The report underscores that clearing forests, driven by the relentless demand for coffee, will only intensify existing rainfall irregularities that are already reducing harvests. Coffee plants are notably sensitive to specific rain patterns and possess little resilience against drought, making them particularly vulnerable.
These conclusions are reinforced by a separate study from Brazilian scientists, published last month, which indicated that Amazon rainforest deforestation in Brazil has resulted in an approximate 75 percent drop in local rainfall. This accumulating scientific evidence demonstrates how deforestation directly impacts rainfall and other critical growing conditions, effects that were historically challenging to measure without modern mapping and analytical technologies.
An aerial view reveals a coffee farm nestled among verdant hills in Vila Valerio, Espírito Santo, Brazil, during July. Brazil has voiced opposition to a European law that would mandate geolocation data for crop origins.
This critical research emerges as Brazil and other key coffee-producing nations find themselves in a dispute with the European Union. The EU has proposed legislation that would require them to verify that coffee sold within its bloc has not been grown on land recently subjected to deforestation.
Brazil, the globe’s leading coffee producer, boasts an environment historically ideal for coffee cultivation. Yet, the very conditions that allowed coffee to flourish in its southeastern growing regions — consistent, well-timed rains and fertile soil — have deteriorated due to ongoing deforestation. This destructive process continues unabated.
Coffee Watch points to a significant shift in 2014 when a drought in Brazil marked the beginning of virtually annual rain shortages. Since then, even when rain does fall, its timing often fails to align with the precise needs of sensitive coffee crops. As these moisture deficits persist, the soil progressively dries out, further hindering plant growth, according to the report.
Last year, severe drought conditions in Brazil contributed to shortages and dramatic spikes in global coffee prices, serving as a stark warning of future instability. While the Brazilian government has achieved some progress in reducing deforestation in certain areas in recent years, a far more severe pricing crisis could be imminent if annual rain cycles collapse entirely. Coffee Watch projects that by 2050, extreme price volatility could become the norm as vast swathes of Brazil’s coffee belt become significantly less productive.
It’s important to note that agricultural deforestation is not unique to Brazil, nor is coffee farming the sole culprit. Cattle ranching and soy cultivation account for a significant portion of forest destruction in Brazil and beyond.
A close-up image shows fresh coffee beans. Brazil’s environment is uniquely suited for coffee cultivation.
Forests play an indispensable role in absorbing carbon and regulating the global climate. However, the high demand for major commodities, including coffee, has fueled worldwide deforestation. In 2023, the European Union passed a law compelling industries dealing in cattle, wood, cocoa, soy, palm oil, coffee, and rubber to prove their products are not sourced from recently deforested land.
To maintain access to the lucrative European market, the world’s largest coffee consumer, farmers in major exporting countries like Vietnam and Ethiopia are already preparing to provide precise geolocation data for their crops.
Brazil, however, has vociferously opposed this legislation. Last year, it sought delays, arguing to the European Commission that the law is ‘a unilateral and punitive instrument that disregards national laws,’ infringes upon national sovereignty, unfairly targets countries with forest resources, and will inflate production and export costs.
As an alternative, Brazil proposed a different economic approach to combat deforestation: establishing a fund to compensate developing countries for their efforts in protecting forests. Next month, Brazil is set to host the annual United Nations climate conference in the Amazon, where it aims to promote its environmental vision amid evolving political landscapes and mounting evidence that current business practices are unsustainable in the long term.
Last month, the European Commission initially suggested delaying the deforestation law’s implementation, citing technical readiness issues within the system. However, the commission recently revised its stance, announcing scaled-back requirements instead of a full postponement. Rules will now be phased in at staggered times for companies of different sizes, though this proposal still requires approval from the European Parliament.